Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review - 01/09/2022

1/14

Market players returned from 🕎🎄🎉 buying value and oil ↗️ and selling growth and duration ↘️

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

2/14

Roiled by #FOMC minutes (nothing new) mid-week, players bid up $VXN and sold $COMPQ.

$VXN 65 +21% - $COMPQ -4.53%
$RVX +13.31% - $IWM -2.87%
$VIX 18.76 +8.94% - $SPX -1.87%

Chart: $COMPQ -4.44% (t) +2.44% (T)

2a/14

Chart: $VXN accelerates to the 🪓🪣

3/14

Large cap value beat growth by 5.53% on the week

Charts: $SPYV +1.05% compared to $SPYG -4.48% - both remain ♉️ but growth is now 🐻 trade.

4/14

On the US Sector level, this manifested with energy and financials 🚀

Top sectors
$XLE +10.52% ♉️
$XLF +5.43%
$XLI +0.64%

December’s winners ↘️
$XLRE -4.9%
$XLV -4.64%
$XLK -4.57%

Chart: $XLE at a 52-week high on volume ↗️

4a/14

“Who gets you out?"

Chart: $XLF +7.19% over past 3 weeks

4b/14

The home construction sub-sector 🐒🔨’d

Chart: $ITB -9.25% for the week!

5/14

France 🇫🇷 ↗️ led major international markets

$CAC +0.93%
$HSI +0.41%
$DAX +0.4%
$KOSPI -0.76%
$NIKK -1.07%
$SSEC -1.66%

Chart: $EEM +0.1% remains in a 📉 -3.8% over (T) duration

6/14

Top country ETFs ↗️

$INDA +2.81%
$IDX +2.57%
$EWU +2.53%
$EWP +2.02%

Biggest losers ↘️
$EDEN -4.41%
$EWZ -2.85%
$RSX -2.66%

Chart: $EWP - time to buy 🇪🇸 +8.2% over the past 3 weeks but -3.63% (T)?

7/14

UST yields 🚀 to cycle highs #TaperTantrum2022
10/2s 89.6 BPS 🐻 #steepener

MOVE 74.69 ↘️

2Y .870% +14.6 BPS
5Y 1.504 +24.1 BPS
10Y 1.755 +25.4 BPS
30Y 2.117 +21.2 BPS

Chart: $TNX breaking out to cycle highs ↗️

8/14

With #TaperTantrum2022 bond ETFs 🐒🔨’d

$TLT -4.0%
$CWB -3.93%
$BNDD -3.33%
$TIP -2.3%
$LQD -2.11%
$IEF -1.97%
$IVOL -1.42%
$BND -1.4%
$HYG -1.31%
$BNDX -0.69%

Chart: $TLT went from ♉️ to neutral (T) +0.27%

9/14

Metals ↘️ did not care too much for #RealYields ↗️

$SILVER -4.03%
$GOLD -1.71%
$COPPER -1.12%
$PLAT -1.0%

Chart: $SILVER unable to hold ♉️ (T) -1.28%

9a/14

Chart: Aluminum and zinc lifted $DBB ↗️ +1.21% (w), +7.44% (t) and +4.16% (T)

9b/14

Chart: $GDX -6.31% broke bad, resuming 🐻 (T) -1.57%

10/14

🛢 and ⛽️ continued the ♉️ 🏃🏾‍♂️

$WTIC +4.91%
$BRENT +5.34%
$GASO +3.6%
$NATGAS +5.09%

Chart: $BRENT is +25% off the December 2 #omicron low

11/14

Grain #dispersion with $CORN and $SOYB continuing their ♉️ 🏃🏾‍♂️

$SOYB +5.3%
$CORN +2.28%
$WHEAT -1.59%
$SUGAR -4.5%

Chart: $SUGAR not so sweet -8.42% (t), -11.04% (T)

11a/14

Sugar may cost less but your ☕️ costs ➕💰

Chart: $COFFEE +5.48% for the 1st week of 2022

12/14

The $USD ⬆️⬇️ for the week

$USD +0.14%
$GBP +0.52%
$AUD -1.24%
$EUR -0.15%
$USDCAD -0.08%
$USDCHF +0.72%
$USDJPY +0.41%

Chart: After a +4.0% 3-week rally off the December 3 low, $AUD resumes 📉

13/14

No global macro review would be complete without at least mentioning #CryptoCrash22

"Could I sell you my #NFTs, bro?"

Chart: $BTC is ⬇️ > 38% since the November 9 high

14/14

Choosing to position for #Quad4 in Q2, I took the other side of the trade 🐒🔨’d

At least I know I did not pay top prices for $TLT $XLRE $XHB $XLU $XLV, but now I have a #RiskManagement problem

#CPI on tap Wednesday

Have a super profitable 💰 week!