π¨π¨ Update: Today just a little market update due my update yesterday was very detailed and not big changes detected yet. However, I will tweet as soon I detect some interesting moves.
Our hourly view shows clear sign of pump preparation. Our whales ratio dumped
hard before we init the pump sending us back to 42k where we retested EMA50 and have failed several times. Yesterday we had more outflows than inflows confimed by our netflow chart. While we were close to pump they have started to send more tokens to exchanges. While the whales
ratio pumped again indicating that those tokens were from whales. The whales ratio 30d average is lifting up again. Indicating more whales tokens are arriving on exchanges, even if the volume is not that big anymore. Stablecoin supply keeps rising, stablecoin reserve on exchanges
maintains its level. I have detected more #tether outflows from #Binance. Since midnight a total of $170m in #tether.
Our block view shows more in detail what happend yesterday. Whales ratio dumped hard. That happens everytime before we pump. We dump first and pump afterwards.
The chart in the bottom shows our netflows. The positive netflow have started to decline after the dump and immediately afterwards negative netflows started to rise indicating more outflows than inflows. However the whales ration 30d average is rising again since our pump
indicating more whales tokens arriving on exchanges. As mentioned above, not more the volume we had the last couple days. This chart shows also the stablecoins outflow from exchanges (yellow line).
If we check our netflows we can see that the 30D average netflow is rising EoY indicating more inflows than outflows. #Binance as main driver of the dump phase shows big inflows between 01-04-2022 - 01-07-2022, while #Okex is taking over since then. Of course not that volume like
#Binance. #Okex last bigger netflow was friday, but also yesterday we had more in- than outflows. Since last hour rising again. #Gemini and #Bitfinex almost neutral.
Future traders flipping to bullish again. Funding rates declining while we maintain our high leverage ratio. No
big liquidations happend yesterday. If I compare the longs liquidations of the recent last weeks with the short liquidations it shows a clear pitcure. We still have much more high leverage longs than shorts. It's easier to dump with those high leverage longs than to pump with the
few high leverage shorts. Also confirmed by Coinglass funding rates quotes.
Our max pain for the next expiry tuesday 11Jan22 is 42k at the moment. For the expiry 14Jan22 44k and for the expiry 28Jan22 50k. The all expiries max pain has dropped once again from 52k to 50k
indicating more volume in lower ranges also in options. The top traded option within the last 24h is Call at 42k for the 28Jan22 expiry. Also bullish.
I expect a green start and we will flip back to red as Powell testifies next tuesday. That could let the sell pressure rise
rise again. This coming week is going to be tough imo. Almost everyday we will receive important data that could affect the markets. So, keep these events in your mind. If next week no flash crash happens and we maintain above of 40k, I would consider 40k our bottom.
After 11Jan22 they should start to lift up heading 44k.
My trade strategy for the next 24 hours: I expect another lift up heading 42k - 42.3k to form a double top (or batman) as the buy pressure is rising. Our hourly RSI shows enough space in the upper range for that and I
expect red candles afterwards. At the moment we maintain above of our recent trendline. Expecting here a bounce with a little low volume pump to lift up as mentioned above. Maintain the level until tonight or tomorrow start to declined again heading Powells testify.
No changes detected related to #Bitfinex or #Coinbase walls, but #FTX perp lower walls are disappearing and the upper wall disappeared completely while #Binance has reduced its wall at 42.3k and mantains its wall at 40k. They were expecting the pump yesterday it seems, they
don't expect more pump heading 43k now. At least that's my interpreation. We will see what happens in the next 24h.
So, make your plan and stick to it. I'm still expecting a high volatility week. Let us rest sunday and make some good trades next week. π
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π¨π¨ Update: Our whales ratio maintains high, but decreasing as we can see at the 30D average. However, we have detected big inflows related to whales yesterday after the dump phase. That could be a sign of dump preparation. Stablecoin reserves on exchanges keeps
falling while stablecoin supply (circulating supply) keeps lifting up. I've detect some #tether outflows from #Binance again. A total of almost $600m withdrawn from #Binance since monday morning.
Our block view is showing a bigger inflows by whales and outflows afterwards.
Anyway also here the whales ratio 30D average is declining. Indicating less whales inflows.
Checking our netflow chart we see, in general netflows are lifting up indicating more inflows happening. #Okex, #Gemini and #Bitfinex are those showing bigger netflows (more inflows than
Patience is key now. I'm waiting for a pump now. Whales ratio declining, netflow almost neutral. We did a nice dump today, but the week is long. It's not like the May dump. SPX and NDX has lifted up again while DXY is falling.
#Finex longing since 39k, like they expected that. They have filled a lot of longs there. CVD also showing lower buy deltas indicating more buys than lows, but still not big.
I'm waiting for the pump signal at whales ratio. As soon as it dumps its my confirmation for the pump.
My momentum indicator also showing a pump incoming. Even I love that indicator, because it is very accurate, sometimes it fails. So, to make clear. I'm buying some dips to make some quick gains and long #BTC and #ETH also only for the swing trade.
High leverage longs rising, big buy pressure detect since our candle an hour ago. ALso Bitfinex future traders longing a lot, much more compared to shorts. Expecting to rekt the high leverage shorts first and flip later on.
More outflows than inflows detected. Whales ratio cooling down a bit, so the sell pressure will. Checking DXY it's goin to flip and dump I guess, so more up now than down. Be careful if you are trading high leverage!
Next big wall on #Bitfinex at 38.5k. Wall at 40k absorbed.
I would like to spend full-time (analyzing, trading and prepar the launch of my crypto project). I will keep offering daily analyzes for free, but offer some stuff on Substack. What monthly price would you consider as fair? And would you subscribe? Check the Substack content π
What would I offer?
- Daily detailed analyzes for crypto (short-/mid-term) and all relevant topics that could have an impact to the market
... like geopolitics and politics in general (e.g. infrastructure bill, regulation, monetary policy etc.).
- Educational content (onchain. indicators, etc)
- Podcasts (with guests) with different topics related to crypto.
- Presentation and intensive research of crypto projects like I did in the past on ANKR, COTI, etc.
π¨π¨ Just a quick market update. Since midnight more tokens from whales arrived. The netflow showing big(ger) inflows again. Whales ratio rising, even the 30D average keeps rising confirming those tokens are from whales. But at the same way, I see they prevent
lower levels than our current max pain of 42k for our expiry tomorrow. However, as mentioned in my yesterdays analysis, the expiry tomorrow has a low volume.
I still think we will retest at least our 40.5k. We need to see if we detetc more incoming inflows to exchanges. If so,
lower leves expected imo. That's still my plan. π€π
I need more time today for my analysis due I'm starting to work.
Few hours ago we have detect a big netflow (2) indicating a big inflow to exchanges. Keep in mind, netflow means more inflows than outflows. Our 30d average (3) whales ratio here also showing a positive trend indicating more sell pressure will come from whales soon.
Our hourly view also shows the whales ratio (1) keeps high in a range between 0.75 - 1.00 also here indicating the incoming inflows are mostly coming from whales. Since last night we had more outflows than inflows, but didn't pump, even if it was a good opportunity due a low