🚨🚨 Market Update: This time I will go a bit deeper in my analysis showing different time frames.

Our block (minutes) time is showing a high whales ratio (1) indicating the incoming inflows are mostly from whales and not from retailers.

Few hours ago we have detect a big netflow (2) indicating a big inflow to exchanges. Keep in mind, netflow means more inflows than outflows. Our 30d average (3) whales ratio here also showing a positive trend indicating more sell pressure will come from whales soon.
Our hourly view also shows the whales ratio (1) keeps high in a range between 0.75 - 1.00 also here indicating the incoming inflows are mostly coming from whales. Since last night we had more outflows than inflows, but didn't pump, even if it was a good opportunity due a low

Instead we received more inflows showing a green netflow (2) indicating a netflow of almost 500 #BTC. Bullish here is the 30d average (3) showing the whales ratio is falling. Stablecoins supply (5) keeps rising while the stablecoin reserve on exchanges (4) keeps on its
level since the $750m #tether inflow to #Binance yesterday. The current exchange reserves showing $20.8 billion in stablecoins.

If we zoom out even more the picture changes a bit. Our whales ratio (1) here indicates that whales inflows has declined from 01-01-2022 until
01-05-2022 and is rising again since 01-06-2022. We need to see if the keeps rising. We can see here the dump preparation when the whales ratio pumped hard from 12-25-2021 to 01-01-2022 indicating whales sending their tokens to exchanges.

Our total netflow (2) for yesterday was
positive showing more inflows than outflows, a total of 2,282 #BTC. But the most interested part is the 30d average ratio in the daily view indicating whales are sending its tokens to exchanges since March of 2021. It's very interesting for me, because I did an analysis about
#BTC entities months ago, showing that big entities have started to distribute in Q1 2021 their assets. The biggest entity with 1,000 - 10,000 #BTC balances with imo the best trade behavior in timing started to distribute its #BTC in Feb 2021. But they distributed hard in March.
In Feb 5th they owned almost 5.56 million #BTC, not owning 5.18 million tokens, indicating a declining of almost 380,000 #BTC or almost 7%. Even entities with 10,000 - 100,000 #BTC most of them related to exchanges has reduced its balances from 2.32 million #BTC in March to 2.07
million today, also indicating a reduction of almost 250,000 #BTC or almost 11% since then. As you can see, the whales ratio is very useful if you want to know if this reduction of entity balances are related to whales or exchanges. To make clear, I'm just interpreting here the

Total exchange reserve has declined by 350 #BTC since 01-07-2022 midnight.

While #Binance has added 750 #BTC more to its reserve in the same period of time.

#Bitfinex reserves almost neutral, showing a reduction of almost 30 #BTC since friday morning.
#Gemini keeps declining its reserves, since friday almost 1,000 #BTC.

#Okex receiving more #BTC and rising its reserves by almost 1,600 #BTC.
The daily view showing clearly an insane leverage ratio (1) showing high leverage future positions still waiting to get rekt. Since May we can detect the rising leverage ratio. The only good thing here, the funding rates (2) maintains a normal range. However, only
a rising volatility would rekt those high leverage positions. That would also explain why option traders started with long gamma to max its risk management for an incoming big volatility.

If we check the hourly view we can detect a falling funding rate (1) indicating more longs
on the way expecting a rising price action, while the leverage ratio (2) has lifted up a bit indicating that some of those new longs are high leverage positions.

Coinglass also confirming the observations described above.
The max pain for our incoming expiry 14Jan22 is at $44k atm. Showing big Puts volume (within 24h) there. For our expiry 28Jan22 we can see a main pain at $50k showing big Puts volume at $40k and Call volume at $50k. However that would match to my expectation of a
bullish trend after 14Jan22. The expirires 14Jan22 and 28Jan22 are in scope of option traders showing the biggest volume within the last 24h. Top traded instruments are $50k Calls for 28Jan22 expiry, but also $40k Puts. For 25MAR22 its shows Puts at $25k and Calls at $50k. Make a
long story short option traders expecting bearish trends until Jan14 but a pump afterwards heading $50k and for March a crash heading $25k or just maintain the Jan price level. Actually it matches well to my prediction. Jan we will lift up init a rally by whales and let
retailers push the price up while their are able to distribute more the way up. In march when rate hike and tapering will init the market should flip to bearish again.
My personal conclusion is, I'm on track. The current data confirms my current trade strategy. Expecting more sell pressure rising the volatility to clean the high leverage positions, after Jan14 start to lift up again. Init a pump heading $50k and beyond. Again, retailers push
the price up, whales just initiate rallys! They never buy all the way up, they buy the bottom and sell the way up! So, its up to you guys what our next top will be! As soon whales starts to notice a stalling rally they will start to dump again. And yes, I'm expacting a dump
heading our remaining CME gap to get it filled at $24k - $26k. Due the fact that institutionals are more and more involved in #BTC Future ETFs does that make sense to me.

As usual, stick to your plan. Don't let you guide by fear or price action. Don't forget to enjoy ur weekend!
Here the current walls for #Binance #Coinbase #Bitfinex and #FTX Perp. I don't like...

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with InspoCrypto

InspoCrypto Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @InspoCrypto

7 Jan
🚨🚨 Update: Todays market update with delay because of the current price action.

Whales ratio the whole day very high, showing its bottom at 0.70 again and its daily top at the max. indicating more whales sending its tokens to exchanges.

Also confirmed by our total netflow, the bottom chart showing big sequential inflows, but of course also outflows. However more inflows than outflows. Nevertheless, today the whales ratio 30d average shows its top indicating a dump preparation. The stablecoin reserves on
exchanges has declined since 12-24-2021 by almost $3.5b! That's big! Today #Binance received $750m of fresh minted #tether. I've tweeted about that. #Tether announced that transaction, but also added that $2b was the original requested amount and was reduced to $750m.
Read 13 tweets
6 Jan
🚨🚨 Update: Our hourly whales ratio chart (1) is showing the first time since 12-30-2021 a little dump indicating less incoming whales tokens. Interesting because at the same time we are detecting more incoming tokens as the total netflow (2) is showing bigger

inflows. When we've a low whales ratio but a green netflow that means retailers are capitulating and selling their #BTC in fear. However, we are not done yet.

Since 01-01-2020 the 30d average whales ratio is falling indicating less whales related inflows. At least not constant
inflows from whales detected. Stablecoin reserves on exchanges has stabilized since 01-04-2022 while the stablecoin supply keeps rising indicating a rising demand. The data keeps looking bearish, but better than in december atm.

In the top chart we can see the total netflow 30d
Read 20 tweets
5 Jan
🚨🚨 Update: Today a quick market update as nothing have changed since yesterday. We still detect more incoming inflows from whales. The whales ratio maintains its level between 0.7 - 1.0. As soon we register bigger outflows, more inflows follows. Today we have

registered more inflows than outflows. The stablecoin reserves on exchanges has rised a bit. I have received some whale alerts related to new stablecoin inflows to exchanges, but we have more outflows coming from #Binance again. Almost $510m stablecoin withdraw registered from
#Binance indicating whales selling their assets and withdrawn their stablecoins. If we don't detect some big inflows to treasury soon its almost confirmed that these whales want to stay to stablecoins to buy the dip afterwards. We have also detected $400m stablecoin inflows
Read 15 tweets
4 Jan
🚨🚨 Update: Our daily view is showing the (1) highest volatility in whales ratio since years. First it dumped hard indicating almost non tokens arriving by whales on exchanges, then it pumped hard indicating incoming whales inflows

and it dumped afterwards again. The (3) netflow chart is confirming those operations. First big outflows, big inflows afterwards and rising outflows later on again.
However, we had a total netflow of (minus) 2,666 BTC, indicating a bigger outflow from exchanges. Matches to the
price action as the price has started to lift up again after reaching our local bottom at $45.7k yesterday.

The whales ratio 30d average (2) keeps rising indicating more inflows arriving exchanges, while the (yellow curve) stablecoin reserve on exchanges are declining indicating
Read 28 tweets
4 Jan
What if the recent dumps are related to the spot ETF rejection by SEC from November 12th? At least that could explain why #Bitfinex placed walls in the range of $38k - $46k. If so, that wouldn't be that bearish.

@SBF_FTX comments from your part?

Institutionals dumping the price in May to accumulate and prepare the launch or their Spot ETFs. China FUD as trigger to let retailers sell their tokens. When everybody was expecting the big dump to lower ranges 07-21-2021 #FTX starts to buy and pumped the price up
init a new rally heading upper 40s/50s. More China FUD follows to get more tokens from retailers. FOMOying with incoming Spot ETF to rise the price up and reach new ATH. November 12th SEC announcing their rejection citing concerns about the lack of regulation and the potential
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
🚨🚨 Update: Our daily view is still showing a rising whales ratio indicating more whales inflows arriving on exchanges. Our total exchanges netflow also showing a positive netflow on exchanges (more inflows than outflows) of almost 850 #BTC. Since end of december

no more big inflows were detected. Also we can see a rising stablecoin supply but a declining stablecoin reserve on exchanges indicating more stablecoin outflows from exchanges. Also for me a sign, they are preparing a dip. As the stablecoin supply keeps rising no big volume
in stablecoins are arriving the treasury. So, not that bearish. However, that would also indicate, we are not done yet with our dumps. That matches very well with my current expectations.

If we switch to our hourly view we can see that our whales ratio maintain very high since
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!