Thread by @TheCosmosUK1

1/ thread on why the @jeremycorbyn situation has backfired massively on #Starmer and #Labour generally. #Corbyn

2/ Firstly, to understand how this has happened requires an understanding of #Corbyn himself, who has been woefully mischaracterised in soft left accounts of his period as leader, perhaps most notably (for the left) @OwenJones84's "This Land"...

3/ #Corbyn is not "indecisive". Thankfully he's not a weathervane either. When making a decision he considers a range of views before determining the correct course of action. When comes to a view he sticks to it firmly and usually he is right.

4/ His record of calling it right comes not from some innate clairvoyance but his tendency to do research and seek to understand a problem or situation before coming to a firm view (he does read books, BTW: not sure where the rumour that he doesn't came from)

5/ That's why he is never going to apologise for comments that he knows to be fundamentally correct. As leader of #Labour, he wasn't always the master of his own destiny in the sense of having to maintain a balance of interests just to stay in office & have a shot at real change

6/ But now that weight is off his shoulders he is free to do as he judges right. The #starmer leadership strategy appears to have been a reprise of the "break him as a man" gambit from 2016 by being so awful to provoke a sense of panic.

7/ And thus to bounce him into making a mistake such as prematurely declaring an intention to form a new party. He is plainly not going to do that. In insisting that Corbyn "apologise so everyone can move on" #Starmer had bet on Corbyn doing the same as other left wingers...

8/ Back down and/or apologise therefore cementing #Starmer's authority. According to this strategy, the ball is in Corbyn's court and any decision he makes will be his "mistake". Split the left or capitulate to get the whip back. But it's a dumb move...

9/ Because Corbyn knows his mind, won't panic and isn't about to make a rash decision. His sure enough in himself and his record to know that his future doesn't depend on the whims of a political minnow like #starmer. As recent visits to Europe and Mexico show...

10/ #Corbyn is an international statesman. He doesn't need Labour as much as it needs him, not least because if he stands again in Islington and Labour choose to put someone up against him, he will win. He is a much loved local MP...

11/ so in truth the ball has bounced off the net and back into #Starmer's court. #Starmer can restore the Whip and save an electoral headache but undermine his own authority. Or, he can force Corbyn to stand against #Labour, lose the party the seat and undermine his own authority

12/ The most sensible thing #Starmer could do (from his own point of view) would be to #RestoreTheWhip. But he won't do that because he appears to lack common sense or basic competence. Worse still (for Starmer) withdrawing the whip from JC hasn't just hurt the Party in Islington

13/ #Corbyn is genuinely popular amongst a large cohort of voters that #Labour needs to win. Withdrawing the whip showed that #Labour isn't serious about the real change, so many voters - particularly young people - desperately need. The Party can only get so far off the back...

14/ Of Tory cock ups. It needs its own constituency to win, which is why the polling lead is soft and diminishing already. Right now, #Labour has few people who actually WANT to vote FOR them. There is no real base of support to rely upon.

15/ #Starmer's mundane mix of anticorbynism and tinkering with Toryism may seem tame but in reality he's taking a HUGE risk and will likely lose. Not in the least because #Labour needs canvassers. #Labour needs Corbyn more than he needs Labour...

16/16 This gives Corbyn the upper hand. Any outcome is likely to turn out to be a victory for him, and the ball's in #Starmer's court. Starmer just needs to decide how badly he'll lose. The one cause he's pursued with any passion is destroying Corbynism, and he's going to fail.