#Omicron is likely to have spread to nearly all countries by now. The larger fraction asymptomatic means that the massive surge in infections will lead to a smaller but sill unprecedented increase in reported cases. 1/
Hospitalizations will increase, and in some countries this increase will lead to higher levels of hospitalization than in previous surges, including the Delta wave and the Northern Hemisphere winter surge last year. 2/
Extremely high rates above 10% PCR positive of pre-admission screening in hospitals of individuals without #COVID19 symptoms in various parts of the US confirm the intense transmission in the community. 3/
Hospitals are likely to be under stress due to health care workers who have tested positive and need to quarantine. In many location, the reported ICU occupation and deaths could be still attributed to the end tail of the Delta variant. 4/
Some of the #covid19 reported deaths, especially among the elderly would be due to incidental #covid19. Although this would have been the case with previous variants, the high rate of infections with #Omicron will lead to a higher number of reported #covid19 deaths these days. 5/
Hence, it is possible that the reported #Omicron infection hospitalization rates and infection fatality rates maybe be over-estimated. 6/
Given the massive numbers of infections, testing and quarantining asymptomatic individuals may not be helpful. There appears to be no prospect for controlling transmission and considerable prospect for disruption of schools and essential services due to screening. 7/
Strategies need to focus on reducing harm in the vulnerable and minimizing health system, school, and economic disruption. 8/
In locations where testing capacity is limited, there is a need to prioritize testing to essential workers to ensure no disruption in key operations such as supply chain, food availability, hospitals and public health operations. 9/
For all practical purposes, the #Omicron wave should be over in the next 4 weeks. 10/
Looking beyond mid-February, we should expect #Omicron to continue circulating and potentially to return later in the year as immunity wanes. 11/
We should expect that new variants will emerge in 2022 and that #COVID19 will continue to be a recurring health problem. However, the notion of a pandemic requiring extraordinary intervention and behavioral change is likely over by early March. 12/
Strategies to manage #COVID19 as an endemic disease in the future should include active surveillance, scaled up production and access to effective anti-virals, vaccines and boosters, and mask use by the vulnerable if and when another wave occurs. end/

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More from @AliHMokdad

9 Jan
@IHME_UW new projections show that daily estimated #COVID19 infections has peaked at 6.2 million on 1/6 in the US, but daily cases will rise to nearly 1.2 million by 1/19, 2022. The infection-detection rate has declined to 22% on January 3. 1/
Our model projects 905,000 cumulative reported deaths due to #COVID19 on 5/1, this represents 79,000 additional deaths from 1/3 to 5/1. Daily reported deaths will rise to 1,930 by 1/24, 2022. 2/
Daily hospital census including incidental admissions with #COVID19 will rise to 273,000 by January 25, 2022. We estimate that 57% of people in United States of America have been infected at least once as of January 3. 3/
Read 9 tweets
7 Jan
No amount of media training can fix bad messaging, @CDCDirector. The root of this problem, the problem of back and forth messaging coming out of the @CDC_gov, cannot be fixed by one individual working on their personal communication skills. 1/
It worries me that @CDCDirector told @CNN: "We actually don't know how our rapid tests perform and how well they predict whether you're transmissible during the end of disease." We need to know how well rapid tests perform at this point in the pandemic. 2/
Is it 5 days or 10 days of isolation after you test positive for #COVID19? Americans shouldn't be making their best guess because of waffling guidance. end/
Read 9 tweets
19 Nov 21
Wishing a very warm happy holidays to all – we deserve to celebrate even amid immense hardship. I have been asked frequently about safe travel and gatherings for the holidays amid #COVID19 lately. Here are my thoughts. 1/
🔑 Being vaccinated against #COVID19 and getting a booster as soon as its available to you is absolutely key to gather safely this holiday season.

Also get a flu vaccine to further protect yourself and your family. 2/
🚘✈️ Before traveling, get tested at a free site or get a home test. If your test comes back positive for #COVID19, follow current @CDCgov guidelines and stay at home. 3/
Read 9 tweets
5 Nov 21
There are early indications that the decline in the Delta surge at the national level in the US has ended. 19 states have increasing transmission, including a number of states such as AZ, CA, and NM that had previously appeared to have been declining. 1/
It is clear that the notion that #COVID19 is over is very unlikely to be true. 2/
We expect that cases will begin to increase, with daily deaths increasing towards the end of November. The increases are expected based on winter seasonality, waning immunity, and declining protective behaviors such as mask use. 3/
Read 6 tweets
17 Sep 21
.@IHME_UW extended its forecast to Jan 1, 2022 and now predicts 777,000 cumulative reported #COVID19 deaths by the end of the year. 1/
.@IHME_UW predicts that the US will see a #COVID19 death toll of 423,000 in 2021. That number far surpasses the 354,000 reported #COVID19 deaths in 2020, despite vaccination campaigns and a better understanding of the virus. 2/
The Delta variant was a major factor in 2021. .@IHME_UW models suggest that the decline off the Delta peak will continue to mid-October, with daily deaths reaching below 1,000. 3/
Read 11 tweets
15 Sep 21
الحالات المبلغ عنها ، والاستشفاء ، والوفيات من #كوفيد١٩ آخذة في الانخفاض في منطقة الشرق الاوسط. 1/ @IHME_UW @WHOEMRO ImageImage
يجب الانتباه والتذكير ان #كوفيد١٩ هو السبب الاول للوفيات في المنطقة الاسبوع السابق وما زال يشكل خطر كبير على الصحة والجهاز الطبي. هذا الفيروس خطير وانتهازي اذا سمحنا له بالانتشار. 2/ Image
طبعا يخفي هذا الانخفاض الإقليمي فروقات مميزة بين الدول مع وصل الى قمة الاصابات والتراجع الواضح في العديد من البلدان (إيران والعراق ، على سبيل المثال) ، واحتمال الوصول الى القمة في لبنان والإمارات والأردن. 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets

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