Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 23 14 tweets 7 min read
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review 01/23/2022

1/13

US equity distribution ↘️ continued with a vengeance into Friday’s #OPEX

VIX ↗️ to ~30 ahead of Wednesday’s #FOMC event risk, leading to vol backwardation - a SHORT-TERM ♉️ signal

Let’s dig into the week's 🧮!
2a/13

High correlation between the UST2Y crossing the 1.0% Rubicon on Tuesday night’s open and acceleration ↘️ in US equity markets

How pathetic is it that the equity market cannot tolerate a 1% 2Y?

2b/13

Nonetheless, $TNX turned on a dime Wednesday leading to a further flattering of the yield curve with 10/s to 75.5 BPS -36% over the past 3 months (T = Trend) and 30/5s to 51.3 BPS -41% over T duration.

Chart: TNX daily
3/13

USTs and bonds have been a 🐻’s playground since January. That may change soon

Weekly delta
$BNDD +1.46%
$TLT +1.08%
$IEF +0.28%
$BND +0.1%
$TIP +0.06%
$BNDX -0.2%
$LQD -0.2%
$IVOL-0.27%
$HYG -0.76%
$CWB -4.14%

Chart: $BNDD +4.09% (T) is your friend with #deflation
4/13

Commodities said 🖕🖕 to #deflation and the $CRB +1.24% put in a new cycle high.

Chart: $CRB weekly
5/13

Led by $PLAT, metals ripped ↗️ on the week

$PLAT +7.25% (w), -1.62% (T)
$SILVER +6.11% (w), -0.53% (T)
$COPPER +2.26% (w), +0.44% (T)
$GOLD +0.84% (w), +1.97% (T) - $GVZ 15.20

Chart: $DBB +1.76% (w), +5.28% (T)
6/13

Hydrocarbons, ex-Natty, continued the ♉️ ↗️

$WTIC +2.18% (w) +1.65% (T) - $OVX 42.57
$BRENT +1.82% (w) +2.56% (T)
$GASO +1.06% (w) +1.24% (T)
$NATGAS -11.27% (w), -30.77% (T) 🐻

Chart: $WTIC put in a nominal new cycle high. Potential #momo #RSI divergence in play
7/13

Grains ♉️ ↗️

$WHEAT +5.19% (w) +3.17% (T)
$CORN +3.35% (w) +14.54% (T)
$SUGAR +3.28% (w), -0.94% (T)
$SOYB +3.25% (w), +15.87% (T)

Chart: Are you really shorting $WHEAT??
8/13

Safety trades led in #FX

$USD +0.5% (w) +2.15% (T)
$USDCHF -0.2% (w) -0.46% (T)
$USDJPY -0.48% (w) +0.19% (T)
$USDCAD +0.32% (w) +1.7% (T)
$EURUSD -0.59% (w) -2.56% (T)
$AUDUSD -0.69% (w) -4.02%% (T)
$GBPUSD -0.95% (w) -1.53% (T)

Chart: Measured move to $AUDUSD .665
9/13

Long US equities has been an absolute 🤕 trade since the start of the new year.

All major indices now 🐻 (T = Trend)

$IWM -8.08% (w) -13.38% (T) - $VIX 28.85
$COMPQ -7.55% (w) -8.76% (T) - $VXN 34.06
$SPX -5.68% (w), -3.23% (T) - $RVX 26.25

Chart: $IWM with more ↘️
10/13

US sectors

Here’s where you lost less 💰
$XLU -0.81% (w) +2.36% (T)
$XLP -1.39% (w) +6.55% (T)
XLRE -2.9% (w) -1.68% (T) ⬅️ ⚠️

Where you lost more ↘️ 💰
$XLY -8.19% (w) -6.4% (T)
$XLK -6.9% (w) -2.58% (T)
$XLF -6.44% (w) -5.96% (T)

Chart: $XLY - discretion advised 😬
11/13

Major internat’l indices held up much better than 🇺🇸

$HSI +2.39% (w) -4.45% (T)
$SSEC +0.04% (w) -1.68% (T)
$CAC -1.04% (w) +4.97% (T)
$DAX -1.76% (w) +0.39% (T)
$NIKK -2.14% (w) -4.45% (T)
$KOSPI -3.0% (w) -5.72% (T)

Chart: $CAC 🇫🇷 the only major market holding ♉️ (T)
12/13

Weekly alpha earned long #HE EM shorts
$EWZ +2.78% (w) -0.53% (T)
$EWH +1.84% (w) -1.3% (T)
$FXI +0.37% (w) -9.34% (T)

Short the North?
$RSX -7.48% (w), -29.57% (T)
$EWD -5.74% (w), -13.07% (T)
$EWN -4.92% (w), -10.59% (T)

Chart: $EWZ dançar a salsa 💃🏽 ↗️
@InOkanagan
13/13

With $VIX ~ 30 and in backwardation, I am expecting a pop in deeply oversold equity markets post #FOMC event risk on Wednesday.

#STFR

Have a super profitable 💰week!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ted Darling

Ted Darling Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tdarling1

Jan 21
Hello Friday and the end to the 60 days of darkness in the Northern Hemisphere!

Week to date (C tickers):

$CAC +0.72%
$COMPQ -4.97%

$CNYUSD +0.19%

$COPPER +3.66%
$CORN +2.47%
$WTIC +2.06%
$COFFEE +1.67%
$CRB +1.86%

Let's dig into the pre #OPEX 🧮!
Some carnage 🩸 into the Asian market close ↘️

$NIKK 27522 -0.9%
$SSEC 3523 -0.9%
$TWII 17899 -1.75%
$HSI 24966 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2834 -1.0%
$IDX 6726 +1.5% ⬅️

Australia 🩸↘️
$ASX 7176 -2.25%

India 🩸↘️
$BSE 58712 -1.25%
Europe 🗡️🩸↘️

$DAX 15700 -1.35%
$FTSE 7521 -0.85%
$CAC 7112 -1.15%
$AEX 767 -1.4%
$IBEX 8685 -1.45%
$MIB 27243 -1.15%
$SMI 12458 -0.8%
$MOEX 3448 -1.95% 🪆

$VSTOXX 20.40 🔻
Read 11 tweets
Jan 20
Hello Thursday!

Big moves ↗️ yesterday in metals and grains

China cuts and $HSI 🚀

Some reprieve from the equity 🐻 with #OPEX on tap tomorrow

Let's dig into the 🧮!
$NIKK 🏀 and $HSI 🚀 as Asia closes ↔️

$NIKK 27773 +1.1%
$SSEC 3555 -0.1%
$TWII 18218 -0.05%
$HSI 24952 +3.4% ⬅️🚀
$KOSPI 2863 +0.7%
$IDX 6627 +0.55%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7342 +0.15%

India 🩸↘️
$BSE 59267 -1.4%
Europe unable to build on gains ↘️

$DAX 15790 -0.1%
$CAC 7138 -0.5%
$FTSE 7576 -0.15%
$AEX 773 +0.05%
$IBEX 8768 -0.1%
$MIB 27408 +0.1%
$SMI 12492 -0.3%
$MOEX 3461 +0.7% 🪆

$VSTOXX 22.36 🔺
Read 11 tweets
Jan 19
Hello 🐫 day!

Oil ↗️

Yields ↗️

Equities ⬆️⬇️

#VIXperation on tap

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asian equities ↘️🐫

$NIKK 27467 -2.8%
$SSEC 3558 -0.35%
$TWII 18227 -0.8%
$HSI 24128 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2842 -0.75%
$IDX 6592 -0.35%

Australia ↘️🐫
$ASX 73332 -1.05%

India ↘️🐫
$BSE 60139 -1.0%
European bourses open ↔️

$DAX 15751 -0.15%
$FTSE 7562 unch
$CAC 7160 +0.35%
$AEX 769 -0.05%
$IBEX 8801 +0.2%
$MIB 27274 -0.8%
$SMI 12520 -0.05%
$MOEX 3442 +3.4% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 21.96 🔺
Read 11 tweets
Jan 18
Hello Tuesday!

Yields are 📈 across the curve and the curve itself flattens. Futures indicated ↘️ with tech leading the way.

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asian indices closed mostly ↘️

$NIKK 28257 -0.25%
$SSEC 3570 +0.8% ⬅️
$TWII 18378 -0.8%
$HSI 24113 -0.45%
$KOSPI 2864 -0.45%
$IDX 6614 -0.45%

Australia ↘️ slightly
$ASX 7409 -0.1%

India ↘️
$BSE 60712 -0.95%
Europe ↘️ and giving back yesterday's gains - and then some - at the open

$DAX 15708 -1.4%
$FTSE 7544 -0.9%
$CAC 7115 -1.2%
$AEX 767 -1.75%
$IBEX 8778 -0.7%
$MIB 27378 -1.1%
$SMI 12500 -1.05%
$MOEX 3474 -2.45% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 20.04
Read 11 tweets
Jan 16
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review
01/16/2022

1/13

With #CPI +7.0% and #PPI +9.7% y/y, #inflation is 💪 both in the 🗞 and inthe 📈 with $WTIC +5.6% (w) and +10.78% YTD, while 🛍 -1.9% and consumer sentiment ↘️ to decade low.

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/13

Featured prominently on last week’s Barron’s cover, the $CRB +3.17% obliged and put in a new cycle high.

Image: Barron's cover 01/10/2022
2a/13

Commodities inflation is a problem for the “inflation rolling, #Quad4 cometh” narrative.

Chart: $CRB 💪
Read 19 tweets
Jan 14
Hello Friday!

Another ⬆️⬇️ week

$BTC +1.78%
$GOLD +1.34%
$USD -0.99%

$TLT +1.42%

$HSI +3.99%
$SPX -0.38%
$COMPQ -0.85%
$SKEW -4.32%

$WTIC +4.08%
$COPPER +3.08%
$WHEAT -1.55%
$CRB +2.10%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
More selling in Asia ↘️

$NIKK 28124 -1.3%
$SSEC 3521 -0.95%
$TWII 18403 -0.2%
$HSI 24383 -0.2%
$KOSPI 2922 -1.35%
$IDX 6693 +0.55% ⬅️

Australia ↘️
$AORD 7394 -1.1%

India ↘️
$BSE 61183 -0.1%
European bourses under pressure ↘️

$DAX 15963 -0.45%
$FTSE 7560 -0.05%
$CAC 7160 -0.55%
$AEX 788 -0.45%
$IBEX 8765 -0.6%
$SMI 12580 -0.3%
$MOEX 3602 -2.0% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 18.46
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(