๐ปโ๏ธโ๏ธโ๏ธโ๏ธโ ๏ธ๐ฉ๐บ๐ป๐งฎ
Global Macro Review
01/16/2022
1/13
With #CPI +7.0% and #PPI +9.7% y/y, #inflation is ๐ช both in the ๐ and inthe ๐ with $WTIC +5.6% (w) and +10.78% YTD, while ๐ -1.9% and consumer sentiment โ๏ธ to decade low.
Letโs dig into the ๐งฎ!
Global Macro Review
01/16/2022
1/13
With #CPI +7.0% and #PPI +9.7% y/y, #inflation is ๐ช both in the ๐ and inthe ๐ with $WTIC +5.6% (w) and +10.78% YTD, while ๐ -1.9% and consumer sentiment โ๏ธ to decade low.
Letโs dig into the ๐งฎ!
2/13
Featured prominently on last weekโs Barronโs cover, the $CRB +3.17% obliged and put in a new cycle high.
Image: Barron's cover 01/10/2022
Featured prominently on last weekโs Barronโs cover, the $CRB +3.17% obliged and put in a new cycle high.
Image: Barron's cover 01/10/2022
2a/13
Commodities inflation is a problem for the โinflation rolling, #Quad4 comethโ narrative.
Chart: $CRB ๐ช
Commodities inflation is a problem for the โinflation rolling, #Quad4 comethโ narrative.
Chart: $CRB ๐ช
3/13
Hydrocarbons en fuego ๐ฅ over the past week (w) and month (t)
$WTIC +5.6% (w) +17.8% (t)
$BRENT +5.4% (w) +18.6% (t)
$GASO +5.2% (w) + 14.7% (t)
$NATGAS +8.7% (w), +15.45% (t)
Chart: $BRENT has flipped back to โ๏ธ (T) = 3 months +1.7% and taking out October high
Hydrocarbons en fuego ๐ฅ over the past week (w) and month (t)
$WTIC +5.6% (w) +17.8% (t)
$BRENT +5.4% (w) +18.6% (t)
$GASO +5.2% (w) + 14.7% (t)
$NATGAS +8.7% (w), +15.45% (t)
Chart: $BRENT has flipped back to โ๏ธ (T) = 3 months +1.7% and taking out October high
3a/13
Chart: $OVX 41.18 may be bottoming here. Volatility ahead?
Chart: $OVX 41.18 may be bottoming here. Volatility ahead?
4/13
Led by $SILVER +2.3%, metals closed the week โ๏ธ but the messages are โ๏ธ from a trend (T) = 3 months perspective
$SILVER +2.3% (w); $VXSLV 25.91 ๐ป
$GOLD +1.05% (w); $GVZ 14.73 ๐ป
$PLAT +0.95% (w)
$COPPER +0.23% (w)
Chart: ๐ง๐พโโ๏ธ $COPPER +2.8% (t), but -6.55 (T) ๐ป
Led by $SILVER +2.3%, metals closed the week โ๏ธ but the messages are โ๏ธ from a trend (T) = 3 months perspective
$SILVER +2.3% (w); $VXSLV 25.91 ๐ป
$GOLD +1.05% (w); $GVZ 14.73 ๐ป
$PLAT +0.95% (w)
$COPPER +0.23% (w)
Chart: ๐ง๐พโโ๏ธ $COPPER +2.8% (t), but -6.55 (T) ๐ป
5/13
Not contributing to $CRB, grains were mostly โ๏ธ for the week
$CORN -1.75% (w) +0.5% (t)
$WHEAT -2.25% (w), -4.3% (t)
$SOYB -2.9% (w) +6.6% (t)
$SUGAR +1.4% (w) -7.6% (t)
Chart: $SUGAR with a ๐จ is ๐ป (t) and (T) -7.6% #STFR
Not contributing to $CRB, grains were mostly โ๏ธ for the week
$CORN -1.75% (w) +0.5% (t)
$WHEAT -2.25% (w), -4.3% (t)
$SOYB -2.9% (w) +6.6% (t)
$SUGAR +1.4% (w) -7.6% (t)
Chart: $SUGAR with a ๐จ is ๐ป (t) and (T) -7.6% #STFR
6/13
With #inflation and $CRB โ๏ธ, bonds took it on the chin ๐ with MOVE to 76.6 ๐บ
2Y .969% + 9.9 BPS
5Y 1.559% +5.5 BPS
10Y 1.793 +2.7 BPS
30Y 2.127% +1.0 BPS
BUT, 10/2s -7.2 BPS to 82.4 BPS ๐ป and 30/5s -4.5 BPS to 56.8 BPS ๐ป
Chart: $UST2Y with a relentless bid
With #inflation and $CRB โ๏ธ, bonds took it on the chin ๐ with MOVE to 76.6 ๐บ
2Y .969% + 9.9 BPS
5Y 1.559% +5.5 BPS
10Y 1.793 +2.7 BPS
30Y 2.127% +1.0 BPS
BUT, 10/2s -7.2 BPS to 82.4 BPS ๐ป and 30/5s -4.5 BPS to 56.8 BPS ๐ป
Chart: $UST2Y with a relentless bid
6a/13
Chart: The $UST10Y put in a nominal new cycle high, but struggled with โ๏ธ follow-thru in the face of weakening economic data
Chart: The $UST10Y put in a nominal new cycle high, but struggled with โ๏ธ follow-thru in the face of weakening economic data
7/13
Bonds ETFs are a ๐ปโs playground ๐คพ๐ฟ for now
$IVOL -0.68%
$CWB -0.6%
$LWD -0.43%
$BND -0.3%
$TIP -0.25%
$IEF -0.14%
$TLT -0.11%
$BNDX +0.26%
$HYG +0.26%
$BNDD +0.4%
Chart: $TLT broke to ๐ป (T) -2.02%
Bonds ETFs are a ๐ปโs playground ๐คพ๐ฟ for now
$IVOL -0.68%
$CWB -0.6%
$LWD -0.43%
$BND -0.3%
$TIP -0.25%
$IEF -0.14%
$TLT -0.11%
$BNDX +0.26%
$HYG +0.26%
$BNDD +0.4%
Chart: $TLT broke to ๐ป (T) -2.02%
7a/13
Chart: $TIP โ๏ธ not serving as your inflation hedge -2.06% (T)
Chart: $TIP โ๏ธ not serving as your inflation hedge -2.06% (T)
8/13
๐บ๐ธ indices โ๏ธ on the week
$SPX -0.3% (w) +0.9% (t)
$COMPQ -0.28% (w) -1.82% (t)
$IWM -0.8% (w) -0.39% (t)
Chart: With $VXN 25.72, $COMPQ on the verge of ๐ป (T) -0.02%
๐บ๐ธ indices โ๏ธ on the week
$SPX -0.3% (w) +0.9% (t)
$COMPQ -0.28% (w) -1.82% (t)
$IWM -0.8% (w) -0.39% (t)
Chart: With $VXN 25.72, $COMPQ on the verge of ๐ป (T) -0.02%
9/13
Energy stocks lead US Sectors for the weekโฆ
$XLE +5.17% (w) +20.2% (t)
$XLC +0.16% (w), +0.31% (t)
โฆwhile consumer & bond proxies โ๏ธ
$XLRE -1.9% (w) -2.7% (t)
$XLY -1.5% (w), +0.8% (t)
$XLU -1.4% (w) -0.1% (t)
Chart: $XLP is the 2nd ๐ช sector over (T) duration +8.8%
Energy stocks lead US Sectors for the weekโฆ
$XLE +5.17% (w) +20.2% (t)
$XLC +0.16% (w), +0.31% (t)
โฆwhile consumer & bond proxies โ๏ธ
$XLRE -1.9% (w) -2.7% (t)
$XLY -1.5% (w), +0.8% (t)
$XLU -1.4% (w) -0.1% (t)
Chart: $XLP is the 2nd ๐ช sector over (T) duration +8.8%
9a/13
Chart: $XRT -8.8% (T) starting signaling in late November, all was not well in the retail sector.
Unfortunately, I was $BTFD but exited when it broke (T)
Chart: $XRT -8.8% (T) starting signaling in late November, all was not well in the retail sector.
Unfortunately, I was $BTFD but exited when it broke (T)
10/13
International equity indices also under pressure - mostly โ๏ธ
$SSEC -1.6% (w) -3.05% (t)
$NIKK -1.25% (w) -1.5% (t) ๐ป
$KOSPI -1.1% (w) -3.2% (t)
$CAC -1.05% (w)+3.2% (t) โ๏ธ
$DAX -0.4% (w) +2.25% (t)
$HSI +3.8% (w) +5.1% (t) ๐ป
Chart: $HSI ๐ป is showing signs of ๐ช
International equity indices also under pressure - mostly โ๏ธ
$SSEC -1.6% (w) -3.05% (t)
$NIKK -1.25% (w) -1.5% (t) ๐ป
$KOSPI -1.1% (w) -3.2% (t)
$CAC -1.05% (w)+3.2% (t) โ๏ธ
$DAX -0.4% (w) +2.25% (t)
$HSI +3.8% (w) +5.1% (t) ๐ป
Chart: $HSI ๐ป is showing signs of ๐ช
10a/n
Chart: $EEM +2.6% (w) and +4.05% (t) is baiting the โ๏ธโ๏ธ, but remains ๐ป (T) -3.5%
Chart: $EEM +2.6% (w) and +4.05% (t) is baiting the โ๏ธโ๏ธ, but remains ๐ป (T) -3.5%
11/13
With a weaker $USD, country ETFs outperformed their local indices
Top Countries
$EWZ +6.75%
$FXI +4.2%
$EWH +2.2%
$EWC +2.15%
Poor performers
$RSX -4.15%
$VNM -3.1%
$EDEN -2.35%
Chart: Despite strong๐ข&โฝ๏ธ, $RSX ๐ช is -4.1% (t) and -23.8% (T) #putin #urkraine ๐ป๐ป
With a weaker $USD, country ETFs outperformed their local indices
Top Countries
$EWZ +6.75%
$FXI +4.2%
$EWH +2.2%
$EWC +2.15%
Poor performers
$RSX -4.15%
$VNM -3.1%
$EDEN -2.35%
Chart: Despite strong๐ข&โฝ๏ธ, $RSX ๐ช is -4.1% (t) and -23.8% (T) #putin #urkraine ๐ป๐ป
12/13
In #FX, the $USD โ๏ธ with $USDJPY back to neutral Trend (T)
$USD 95.16 -0.59%
$GBP 1.368 +0.66%
$AUD 0.722 +0.56%
$EUR 1.141 +0.44%
$USDCAD 1.254 -0.87%
$USDCHF 0.914 -0.5%
$USDJPY 114.25 -1.13%
Chart: The ๐น stopped going โ๏ธ vs. ๐ต
In #FX, the $USD โ๏ธ with $USDJPY back to neutral Trend (T)
$USD 95.16 -0.59%
$GBP 1.368 +0.66%
$AUD 0.722 +0.56%
$EUR 1.141 +0.44%
$USDCAD 1.254 -0.87%
$USDCHF 0.914 -0.5%
$USDJPY 114.25 -1.13%
Chart: The ๐น stopped going โ๏ธ vs. ๐ต
13/13
Slowing ๐ and ๐ sentiment reinforce growth โ๏ธ, but #inflation is still ๐ช
#stagflaton #quad3 in Q1?
Clearly, this is a market in flux ๐ช๐ชฃ
Short week with #VIXX on Wednesday and #OPEX on Friday ๐
Enjoy #MLK day and have a super profitable ๐ฐ week ๐งฒ๐งฒ๐งฒ
Slowing ๐ and ๐ sentiment reinforce growth โ๏ธ, but #inflation is still ๐ช
#stagflaton #quad3 in Q1?
Clearly, this is a market in flux ๐ช๐ชฃ
Short week with #VIXX on Wednesday and #OPEX on Friday ๐
Enjoy #MLK day and have a super profitable ๐ฐ week ๐งฒ๐งฒ๐งฒ
โข โข โข
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