Thread by @med_eye

As #ItalianPolitics is almost entirely focused on the election of the new #PresidentOfTheRepublic (long thread on this coming soon)… a thread to make sense of #Italy’s stand on the #UkraineCrisis

cc: @gmfus @IAIonline

Today, #RussianPresident Vladimir #Putin will attend a meeting promoted by the Italian-Russian Chamber of Commerce focused on "trade, economic and investment cooperation between #Russia and #Italy"

tass.com/economy/1392735

Such a meeting is indeed “extraordinary” as noted by @NonaMikhelidze on @formichenews: Putin usually delegates meetings like this to others. His presence suggests that, for him, this is crucial

formiche.net/2022/01/putin-…

The timing is also interesting. This meeting comes as tension over #Russia’s moves vis-à-vis #Ukraine is rising.

Some made a comparison with what happened in 2014, when #Italy was among the #EU most vocal members against sanctions towards Russia because of the economic impact on its economic system

politico.eu/article/vladim…

In the past, #Italy tried to play a role of mediator between #Ukraine and #Russia...

jamestown.org/program/gettin…

It is true that #ItalianUkrainian relations have indeed never been particularly easy…
jamestown.org/program/italy-…

Although there have been some improvements over the past years.
jamestown.org/program/italy-…

Some #Italian parties historically have good relations with #Russia…
jamestown.org/program/salvin…

and #Russia also remains a crucial economic interlocutor, in many fields.
it.insideover.com/economia/l-imp…

Indeed, #Russia knows that, for #Italy and its exporters, the issue of sanctions is very sensitive and is trying to play on these fears to influence Italy’s response to the crisis

#PrimeMinister #Draghi has not been very vocal on this issue, partly because of his well-known reluctant nature in engaging the press but also because of the current phase of Italian politics, which pushes him to be even less talkative.

This silence has created some misunderstandings. #Draghi is known for being a firm supporter of the #EU and #NATO, yet #Italy has been described, together with #Germany, as the “most reluctant” to act after…

...#PresidentBiden spoke to him in a video call with other #European and #Transatlantic leaders repubblica.it/esteri/2022/01…

Against this backdrop, to defuse uncertainty, #Rome’s position has been clarified by @guerini_lorenzo, #ItalyMoD in an interview with @repubblica

#Guerini made clear that pursuing dialogue with #Russia does not mean giving up on deterrence.

repubblica.it/esteri/2022/01…

He reiterated that “#Italy will continue to contribute and do its part in helping and reassuring #NATO members on the #EasternFlank…” and “will not shy away from the duties of the alliance”

Italy has not sent new troops to the #EasternEurope front now but it is taking part in a number of exercises in the #EasternMediterranean (#NeptuneStrike22, #Clemenceau) happening when other Russian exercises in the area will also take place.

In conclusion, this means that Italy will continue to push for dialogue to defuse tension, but this does not mean that Rome is reluctant in supporting #NATO and #EU allies and #Ukraine…

… and will adopt a very different approach from that adopted in 2014.

For further analysis on #Italy, #NATO and #Russia follow @NonaMikhelidze @Alessandro__Ma @FrancescoBechis @Mara_Morini @eleonoratafuro @omoscatelli @AffInt @formichenews @Aspeniaonline @IAIonline

and my @gmfus colleagues on the situation in #Ukraine and the #American/#NATO approach towards the crisis @ian_lesser @JonDKatz @UlrichSpeck @M_Baranowski @O_Prokopenko_IR @mkimmage @stevenckeil

to add to this: @IAIonline director @NathalieTocci view on today's meeting between Putin and (some) Italian corporate leaders

https://twitter.com/NathalieTocci/status/1486394535278219269