Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 31 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello Monday! ๐Ÿฏ

Much of Asia closed for NY eve ๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿช…๐Ÿพ

Equity markets building on Friday's gains
No signs of weakness in the $CRB to end the month

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
๐Ÿฏ symbolizes power, courage, confidence, leadership and strength

$NIKK 27001 +1.05%
$SSEC ๐Ÿฏ
$TWII ๐Ÿฏ
$HSI ๐Ÿฏ
$KOSPI ๐Ÿฏ
$IDX 6631 -0.2%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6972 -0.25%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 58160 +1.7%
Europe opens โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 15504 +1.2%
$FTSE 7479 +0.2%
$CAC 7020 +0.75%
$AEX 756 +1.55%
$IBEX 8632 +0.25%
$MIB 26899 +1.25%
$SMI 12236 +1.1%
$MOEX 3544 +1.6% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 29.41
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ futures โ†—๏ธ with elevated ๐ŸŒŠ

$ES 4440 +0.2%
$NQ 14552 +0.65%
$RTY 1960 +0.2%

$VIX 28.10
#backwardation
Gold and metals catching a bid โ†—๏ธ

$GOLD 1789 +0.25%
$SILVER 22.535 +1.05%
$COPPER 4.344 +0.8%
$PLAT 1015 +0.85%
$PALL 2412 +1.55%
$ALI 3075 -0.25%
$ZINC 3670 +1.7% โฌ…๏ธ
Hydrocarbons with a relentless bid โ†—๏ธ but $WTIC in deep #backwardation with Cushing concerns

$WTIC 87.31 +0.55%
$BRENT 88.97 +0.5%
$GASO 2.55 +0.35%
$NATGAS 4.894 +5.5%
Grains โ†—๏ธโ™‰๏ธ

$WHEAT 795 +1.0%
$CORN 640 +0.65%
$SOYB 1489 +1.3% โฌ…๏ธ
$SUGAR 18.21 -0.1%

โ˜•๏ธ 235 -0.15%
The world reserve currency taking a break โ†˜๏ธ

$USD 97.02 -0.25%
$EUR 1.117 +0.28%
$GBP 1.344 +0.31%
$AUD 0.7052 +0.94% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿป
$USDJPY 115.44 +0.17%
$USDCHF 0.932 +0.15%
$USDCAD 1.273 -0.21%
$USDRUB 77.436 -0.51% ๐Ÿช†
After a strong weekend, #crypto โ†˜๏ธ

$BTC 37211 -1.9%
$ETH 2542 -2.65%
USTs โ†”๏ธ with short-end โ†—๏ธ long-end โ†˜๏ธ
10/2s 57.7 BPS ๐Ÿ”ป ๐Ÿฅž

2Y 1.201 +0.029
5Y 1.631 +0.009
10Y 1.778 -0.002
30Y 2,086 +0.003

Global 10Ys mostly โ†—๏ธ
CAN 1.759 -0.018
AUS 1.89 -0.016
ITA 1.329 -0.02%
January was a tough month to trade

Navigated the equity draw โ†˜๏ธ well, but exited most of my $CRB positions too soon #stagflation

Bonds were no hedge; only long vol, outright shorts, or USD provided ballast/alpha

It's a new year ๐Ÿฏ!

Be ๐Ÿ’ช and have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ day!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

Feb 1
Hello February! ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฐ

Biggest mistake of January?
Selling most of my $CRB +9.79% exposure

No ๐Ÿ‘€ back and ๐Ÿ˜ญ over spilled ๐Ÿฅ›

Time to grab the ๐Ÿฏ by the #tail and dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Most of Asia celebrating ๐Ÿฏ

Good idea given January returns with $KOSPI -10.56%, $SSEC -7.65, and $NIKK -6.22%

Tuesday trading
$NIKK 27078 +0.3%
$BSE 58871 +0.8%
January returns for Euro area were โ†˜๏ธ but better than USA and Asia

January: $DAX -2.6% and $CAC -2.15%

Early trade
$DAX 15599 +0.8%
$FTSE 7533 +0.9%
$CAC 7065 +0.95%
$AEX 762 +0.9%
$IBEX 8706 +1.1%
$MIB 27091 +1.05%
$SMI 12327 +0.8%
$MOEX 3561 +0.9% ๐Ÿช†
Read 10 tweets
Jan 30
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review - 01/30/2022

1/13

With Joeโ€™s blessing (#inflation no good for re-election bid), JPOW is hell bent on โ†—๏ธ rates and draining ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ

Backward ๐Ÿ‘€ ๐Ÿงฎ shows 4Q21 GDP +7.0% with +7.0% price deflator and #PCE +4.8%, a 40-year high, butโ€ฆ
2/n

โ€ฆ @AtlantaFed is nowcasting Q122 GPD estimate of +0.5% โ†˜๏ธ

With $CRB +15.9% ๐Ÿš€ off December 1 lows, the evidence of #inflation โ†˜๏ธ is thin.

That said, Fed WILL tighten into a GDP slow down as fiscal spend โ†˜๏ธ markedly y/y ๐Ÿ˜ฑ

Chart: $CRB at cycle highs. ๐Ÿ”?
3/13

Hydrocarbons said ๐Ÿ–•to the Fed

$WTIC +1.97% (w) +15.44% (m)
$BRENT +3.0% (w) +16.41% (m)
$GASO +3.67% (w) +14.41% (m)
$NATGAS +22.75% (w) +24.4% (m)

(w = week, m = month = trade = t)

Chart: Natty ripped the face off the ๐Ÿป๐Ÿป
Read 15 tweets
Jan 28
Hello Friday!

WTD #dispersion

$CAC -0.65%
$COMPQ -3.0%
$AORD -5.0%
$NIKK -4.9%
$KOSPI -7.75%

$VXN +7.6%

$BTC +0.55%
$AUDUSD -1.95%
$GOLD -2.0%

$NATGAS +13.25%
$PALL +12.45%
$BRENT +2.5%
$CORN+1.45%
$CRB +1.0%
$COPPER -2.2%

$TLT -0.4%

Let's dig into the early morning ๐Ÿงฎ!
๐Ÿป held sway in Asia with indices โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 26717 +2.1% โฌ…๏ธ
$SSEC 3361 -0.95%
$TWII 17674 -0.15%
$HSI 23550 -1.1%
$KOSPI 2663 +1.85% โฌ…๏ธ
$IDX 6645 +0.5%

Australia ๐Ÿฆ˜โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 6998 +2.2%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 57197 -0.15%
Europe succumbing to the ๐Ÿปโ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15293 -1.5%
$FTSE 7486 -0.9%
$CAC 6843 -1.15%
$AEX 742 -1.45%
$IBEX 8602 -1.15%
$FTSE 26561 -1.2%
$SMI 12083 -0.75%
$MOEX 3504 +1.4% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 28.03
Read 11 tweets
Jan 23
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review 01/23/2022

1/13

US equity distribution โ†˜๏ธ continued with a vengeance into Fridayโ€™s #OPEX

VIX โ†—๏ธ to ~30 ahead of Wednesdayโ€™s #FOMC event risk, leading to vol backwardation - a SHORT-TERM โ™‰๏ธ signal

Letโ€™s dig into the week's ๐Ÿงฎ!
2a/13

High correlation between the UST2Y crossing the 1.0% Rubicon on Tuesday nightโ€™s open and acceleration โ†˜๏ธ in US equity markets

How pathetic is it that the equity market cannot tolerate a 1% 2Y?

2b/13

Nonetheless, $TNX turned on a dime Wednesday leading to a further flattering of the yield curve with 10/s to 75.5 BPS -36% over the past 3 months (T = Trend) and 30/5s to 51.3 BPS -41% over T duration.

Chart: TNX daily
Read 14 tweets
Jan 21
Hello Friday and the end to the 60 days of darkness in the Northern Hemisphere!

Week to date (C tickers):

$CAC +0.72%
$COMPQ -4.97%

$CNYUSD +0.19%

$COPPER +3.66%
$CORN +2.47%
$WTIC +2.06%
$COFFEE +1.67%
$CRB +1.86%

Let's dig into the pre #OPEX ๐Ÿงฎ!
Some carnage ๐Ÿฉธ into the Asian market close โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 27522 -0.9%
$SSEC 3523 -0.9%
$TWII 17899 -1.75%
$HSI 24966 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2834 -1.0%
$IDX 6726 +1.5% โฌ…๏ธ

Australia ๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7176 -2.25%

India ๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 58712 -1.25%
Europe ๐Ÿ—ก๏ธ๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15700 -1.35%
$FTSE 7521 -0.85%
$CAC 7112 -1.15%
$AEX 767 -1.4%
$IBEX 8685 -1.45%
$MIB 27243 -1.15%
$SMI 12458 -0.8%
$MOEX 3448 -1.95% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 20.40 ๐Ÿ”ป
Read 11 tweets
Jan 20
Hello Thursday!

Big moves โ†—๏ธ yesterday in metals and grains

China cuts and $HSI ๐Ÿš€

Some reprieve from the equity ๐Ÿป with #OPEX on tap tomorrow

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
$NIKK ๐Ÿ€ and $HSI ๐Ÿš€ as Asia closes โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 27773 +1.1%
$SSEC 3555 -0.1%
$TWII 18218 -0.05%
$HSI 24952 +3.4% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿš€
$KOSPI 2863 +0.7%
$IDX 6627 +0.55%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7342 +0.15%

India ๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 59267 -1.4%
Europe unable to build on gains โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15790 -0.1%
$CAC 7138 -0.5%
$FTSE 7576 -0.15%
$AEX 773 +0.05%
$IBEX 8768 -0.1%
$MIB 27408 +0.1%
$SMI 12492 -0.3%
$MOEX 3461 +0.7% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 22.36 ๐Ÿ”บ
Read 11 tweets

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