Ted Darling Profile picture
Feb 1 โ€ข 10 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
Hello February! ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฐ

Biggest mistake of January?
Selling most of my $CRB +9.79% exposure

No ๐Ÿ‘€ back and ๐Ÿ˜ญ over spilled ๐Ÿฅ›

Time to grab the ๐Ÿฏ by the #tail and dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Most of Asia celebrating ๐Ÿฏ

Good idea given January returns with $KOSPI -10.56%, $SSEC -7.65, and $NIKK -6.22%

Tuesday trading
$NIKK 27078 +0.3%
$BSE 58871 +0.8%
January returns for Euro area were โ†˜๏ธ but better than USA and Asia

January: $DAX -2.6% and $CAC -2.15%

Early trade
$DAX 15599 +0.8%
$FTSE 7533 +0.9%
$CAC 7065 +0.95%
$AEX 762 +0.9%
$IBEX 8706 +1.1%
$MIB 27091 +1.05%
$SMI 12327 +0.8%
$MOEX 3561 +0.9% ๐Ÿช†
Big ๐Ÿป rip โ†—๏ธ in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ equities yesterday

January returns โ†˜๏ธ
$SPX -5.26%
$COMPQ -8.98%
$IWM -9.53%

Futuresโ†˜๏ธ
$ES 4502 -0.3%
$NQ 14905 -0.15%
$RTY 2018 -0.4%

$VIX 24.97
#contang
Metals trading โ†—๏ธ after โ†”๏ธ month in January with $GOLD -1.76%, $PLAT +5.69%, and $DBB +2.74%

Now trading
$GOLD 1806 +0.6%, $GVZ 16.70 ๐Ÿ”ป
$SILVER 22.78 +1.75%
$COPPER 4.36 +0.8%
$PLAT 1039 +1.85% โฌ…๏ธ
$PALL 2376 +0.85%
$ALI 3052 +1.05%
$ZINC 3635 +1.3%
Hydrocarbons trading โ†˜๏ธ after providing outsized โž• returns in January with $WTIC +17.21% and $NATGAS +30.56% ๐Ÿš€

Now trading
$WTIC 87.40 -0.85%, $OVX 42.36 ๐Ÿ”ป
$BRENT 88.44 -0.95%
$GASO 2.536 -0.7%
$NATGAS 4.817 -1.15%
Grains were a โž• source of #alpha in January with $DBA +2.23% led by $SOYB +11.29%

Starting February mostly โ†—๏ธ
$WHEAT 767 +0.85%
$CORN 626 +0.1%
$SOYB 1491 unch
$SUGAR 18.32 +0.1%

โ˜•๏ธ 239 +2.0% building on January +3.94%
The $USD returned +0.99% in January, but is under pressure again today as #RBA ends bond buying

$USD 96.325 -0.22%
$EUR 1.126 +0.28%
$GBP 1.35 +0.4%
$AUD .7085 +0.29%
$USDJPY 114.7 -0.35%
$USDCHF .922 -0.49%
$USDCAD 12676 -0.23%
$USDRUB 77.02 -0.46% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†
Massive โ™‰๏ธ #flattening of yield curve in January with 10/2s 60.0 BPS -17.9BPS

UST yields โ†”๏ธ to start February
2Y 1.171 +0.006
5Y 1.608 -0.01
10Y 1.779 -0.003
30Y 2.115 +0.017

MOVE 85.14 ๐Ÿ˜ฑ
January's #stagflation was difficult to navigate with #riskoff in equities, bonds, and gold and #riskon in commodities

๐Ÿ‘€ ahead โžก๏ธ CBs around the ๐ŸŒ draining ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ
#deflationary

Grab the ๐Ÿฏ by the #tail and have a super ๐Ÿ’ฐprofitable first day of February!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
ใ€€

Keep Current with Ted Darling

Ted Darling Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tdarling1

Jan 31
Hello Monday! ๐Ÿฏ

Much of Asia closed for NY eve ๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿช…๐Ÿพ

Equity markets building on Friday's gains
No signs of weakness in the $CRB to end the month

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
๐Ÿฏ symbolizes power, courage, confidence, leadership and strength

$NIKK 27001 +1.05%
$SSEC ๐Ÿฏ
$TWII ๐Ÿฏ
$HSI ๐Ÿฏ
$KOSPI ๐Ÿฏ
$IDX 6631 -0.2%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6972 -0.25%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 58160 +1.7%
Europe opens โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 15504 +1.2%
$FTSE 7479 +0.2%
$CAC 7020 +0.75%
$AEX 756 +1.55%
$IBEX 8632 +0.25%
$MIB 26899 +1.25%
$SMI 12236 +1.1%
$MOEX 3544 +1.6% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 29.41
Read 11 tweets
Jan 30
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review - 01/30/2022

1/13

With Joeโ€™s blessing (#inflation no good for re-election bid), JPOW is hell bent on โ†—๏ธ rates and draining ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ

Backward ๐Ÿ‘€ ๐Ÿงฎ shows 4Q21 GDP +7.0% with +7.0% price deflator and #PCE +4.8%, a 40-year high, butโ€ฆ
2/n

โ€ฆ @AtlantaFed is nowcasting Q122 GPD estimate of +0.5% โ†˜๏ธ

With $CRB +15.9% ๐Ÿš€ off December 1 lows, the evidence of #inflation โ†˜๏ธ is thin.

That said, Fed WILL tighten into a GDP slow down as fiscal spend โ†˜๏ธ markedly y/y ๐Ÿ˜ฑ

Chart: $CRB at cycle highs. ๐Ÿ”?
3/13

Hydrocarbons said ๐Ÿ–•to the Fed

$WTIC +1.97% (w) +15.44% (m)
$BRENT +3.0% (w) +16.41% (m)
$GASO +3.67% (w) +14.41% (m)
$NATGAS +22.75% (w) +24.4% (m)

(w = week, m = month = trade = t)

Chart: Natty ripped the face off the ๐Ÿป๐Ÿป
Read 15 tweets
Jan 28
Hello Friday!

WTD #dispersion

$CAC -0.65%
$COMPQ -3.0%
$AORD -5.0%
$NIKK -4.9%
$KOSPI -7.75%

$VXN +7.6%

$BTC +0.55%
$AUDUSD -1.95%
$GOLD -2.0%

$NATGAS +13.25%
$PALL +12.45%
$BRENT +2.5%
$CORN+1.45%
$CRB +1.0%
$COPPER -2.2%

$TLT -0.4%

Let's dig into the early morning ๐Ÿงฎ!
๐Ÿป held sway in Asia with indices โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 26717 +2.1% โฌ…๏ธ
$SSEC 3361 -0.95%
$TWII 17674 -0.15%
$HSI 23550 -1.1%
$KOSPI 2663 +1.85% โฌ…๏ธ
$IDX 6645 +0.5%

Australia ๐Ÿฆ˜โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 6998 +2.2%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 57197 -0.15%
Europe succumbing to the ๐Ÿปโ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15293 -1.5%
$FTSE 7486 -0.9%
$CAC 6843 -1.15%
$AEX 742 -1.45%
$IBEX 8602 -1.15%
$FTSE 26561 -1.2%
$SMI 12083 -0.75%
$MOEX 3504 +1.4% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 28.03
Read 11 tweets
Jan 23
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review 01/23/2022

1/13

US equity distribution โ†˜๏ธ continued with a vengeance into Fridayโ€™s #OPEX

VIX โ†—๏ธ to ~30 ahead of Wednesdayโ€™s #FOMC event risk, leading to vol backwardation - a SHORT-TERM โ™‰๏ธ signal

Letโ€™s dig into the week's ๐Ÿงฎ!
2a/13

High correlation between the UST2Y crossing the 1.0% Rubicon on Tuesday nightโ€™s open and acceleration โ†˜๏ธ in US equity markets

How pathetic is it that the equity market cannot tolerate a 1% 2Y?

2b/13

Nonetheless, $TNX turned on a dime Wednesday leading to a further flattering of the yield curve with 10/s to 75.5 BPS -36% over the past 3 months (T = Trend) and 30/5s to 51.3 BPS -41% over T duration.

Chart: TNX daily
Read 14 tweets
Jan 21
Hello Friday and the end to the 60 days of darkness in the Northern Hemisphere!

Week to date (C tickers):

$CAC +0.72%
$COMPQ -4.97%

$CNYUSD +0.19%

$COPPER +3.66%
$CORN +2.47%
$WTIC +2.06%
$COFFEE +1.67%
$CRB +1.86%

Let's dig into the pre #OPEX ๐Ÿงฎ!
Some carnage ๐Ÿฉธ into the Asian market close โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 27522 -0.9%
$SSEC 3523 -0.9%
$TWII 17899 -1.75%
$HSI 24966 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2834 -1.0%
$IDX 6726 +1.5% โฌ…๏ธ

Australia ๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7176 -2.25%

India ๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 58712 -1.25%
Europe ๐Ÿ—ก๏ธ๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15700 -1.35%
$FTSE 7521 -0.85%
$CAC 7112 -1.15%
$AEX 767 -1.4%
$IBEX 8685 -1.45%
$MIB 27243 -1.15%
$SMI 12458 -0.8%
$MOEX 3448 -1.95% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 20.40 ๐Ÿ”ป
Read 11 tweets
Jan 20
Hello Thursday!

Big moves โ†—๏ธ yesterday in metals and grains

China cuts and $HSI ๐Ÿš€

Some reprieve from the equity ๐Ÿป with #OPEX on tap tomorrow

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
$NIKK ๐Ÿ€ and $HSI ๐Ÿš€ as Asia closes โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 27773 +1.1%
$SSEC 3555 -0.1%
$TWII 18218 -0.05%
$HSI 24952 +3.4% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿš€
$KOSPI 2863 +0.7%
$IDX 6627 +0.55%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7342 +0.15%

India ๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 59267 -1.4%
Europe unable to build on gains โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15790 -0.1%
$CAC 7138 -0.5%
$FTSE 7576 -0.15%
$AEX 773 +0.05%
$IBEX 8768 -0.1%
$MIB 27408 +0.1%
$SMI 12492 -0.3%
$MOEX 3461 +0.7% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 22.36 ๐Ÿ”บ
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

:(