His decision making is good, as he doesn’t engage too soon & only engages once he cannot to react in time to the shot, but his problem is, as always, the way he twists his body away from contact which leaves gaps in his barrier!
My model finds that if #DeGea had engaged the 1st touch the chance would’ve been 0.64 ExG because even though the 1v1 is quite far from goal engaging in that location would make the GK very vulnerable to the chip, sidefoot finish, and being rounded.
Engaging the 2nd touch, as #DeGea does, means the chance is actually 0.42 ExG as even though the 1v1 is closer to goal when the GK engages here there is usually very little space to exploit over, through, or round the GK!
The reason #DeGea concedes is because yet again when he engages he twists/angles his body such that he avoids contact & thus leaves a big gap for the striker to exploit!
If he could start staying square to the ball he would become far more proficient at saving close range 1v1s!
Today I’ll breakdown #DeGea’s performance in the #PremierLeague using my bespoke GK models!
The headline is for the first time in 3 seasons #DeGea’s shot stopping skills are outweighing his weak shot prevention skills & thus far he has saved #MUFC ~5 additional goals!
Shot Stopping:
#DeGea’s shot stopping has been world class, my model predicts he has saved #MUFC ~5 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
The goalmouth map highlights just how hard #DeGea has been to beat, if you don’t hit the corners you won’t score!
Shot Stopping:
His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:
1. 24% Save Probability vs Jesus
2. 34% Save Probability vs Almiron
3. 42% Save Probability vs Pukki
They highlight #DeGea big strength, his reflexes & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area.
The 1st goal was a textbook shot stopping technique selection mistake
The shot went next to DDG’s right foot but rather than go with his foot he went with his hand
It was odd to see as DDG’s shot stopping technique selection is usually flawless!
I actually thought #DeGea’s footwork before the shot occurred was excellent & it got him into a great position to make the save but his shot stopping technique selection let him down at the last moment & meant he couldn’t make the save!
The 1st goal was a mistake but I am way more concerned about the 2nd.
Even though #DeGea had ample time to judge the 1v1 would be from close range he failed to get close enough to the ball to maximise the goal area covered & snuff out the shot.
He was well positioned as he was stood on the line between the ball & the outside of the wall!
It was a good, but not unbelievable, save. My model finds such a FK gets saved ~50% of the time due to its low speed & distance from the post!
I’ve seen the save described on Twitter as both the save of the season & poor positioning followed by a slow recovery!
As usual the truth is between the two & I should make it clear here that saving a 50/50 shot is a lot closer to the save of the season than poor GKing!
I should add that #Ramsdale had a phenomenal game, saving 4 out of 4 1v1s!
Which is unreal!
If you run all the shots he faced through my model you find #Ramsdale saved #AFC in total 2.38 goals above average which in a 2-0 win means he literally won them the game!
I’ve seen this describe as a wonder save but it’s a decision making error followed by a good recovery
My 1v1 model predicts this to be scored 2% of the time if the GK holds deep while if the GK rushes, like #Mendy, it is scored 64% of the time
He made it way harder for himself!
I think #Mendy is a top GK by the way & he’s made many great saves this season but just because a GK is good doesn’t mean we should praise them regardless of how good their goalkeeping actually is!
If anything this save should actually worry #Chelsea fans a bit as it is reminiscent of an issue #Mendy had last year when he gave away soft goals vs #LUFC & #EFC
Hopefully for #CFC fans it was a 1 off bad decision & it won’t happen again unlike in the middle part of last year.