Share this page!

Ted Darling Profile picture
Twitter logo
Feb 11 โ€ข 12 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello Friday!

7.5% CPI
2Y to 1.6%
10/2s to 40 BPS

Market forcing Fed to hike - soon.

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia mostly โ†˜๏ธ with ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต bucking the trend

$NIKK 27696 +0.4% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
$SSEC 3463 -0.65%
$TWII 18311 -0.15%
$HSI 24907 -0.05%
$KOSPI 2748 -0.85%
$IDX 6815 -0.1%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7217 -1.0%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 58178 -1.25%
Europe ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ”จโ†˜๏ธ for a second day

$DAX 15324 -1.05%
$FTSE 7604 -0.9%
$CAC 6999 -1.45%
$AEX 756 -0.85%
$IBEX 8778 -1.2%
$MIB 26765 -1.55%
$SMI 12196 -0.95%
$MOEX 3532 -3.4% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 21.84
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ futures โ†˜๏ธ
Did you chase, bro?

$ES 4475 -0.65%
$NQ 14584 -0.8%
$RTY 2031 -0.5%

$VIX 25.30๐Ÿ”บ and nearing backwardation, again
Metals ๐Ÿ”จd โ†˜๏ธ

$GOLD 1827 -0.55%
$SILVER 22.96 -2.4%
$COPPER 4.55 -2.35%
$PLAT 1028 -1.45%
$PALL 2230 -1.55%
$ALI 3233 -0.55%
$ZINC 3718 +0.4% โฌ…๏ธ

$GVZ 15.92
Hydrocarbons remain resilient โ†—๏ธ

$WTIC 90.31 +0.5%
$BRENT 91.77 +0.4%
$GASO 2.668 +0.11%
$NATGAS 3.991 +0.8%

$OVX 43.81 ๐Ÿ”บ
Grains ๐Ÿ’šโ†—๏ธ

$WHEAT 774 +0.45%
$CORN 645 +0.65%
$SOYB 1584 +0.65%
$SUGAR 18.27 -0.35%

โ˜•๏ธ 253.35 -0.65%
World reserve currency flexing ๐Ÿ’ช

$USD 95.90 +0.37%
$EUR 1.1387 -0.35%
$GBP 1.355 unch
$AUD 0.713 -0.55%
$USDJPY 116.06 +0.06%
$USDCHF 0.929 +0.3%
$USDCAD 1.283 +0.08%
$USDRUB 75.03 unch ๐Ÿช†
Crypto โ†˜๏ธ responding inversely to VIX

$BTC 43430 -2.25%
$ETH 3098 -3.65%

#InflationHedge ๐Ÿ˜‚
Bond market was f'd yesterday with yields to cycle highs. MOVE 88.52 ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ˜ฑ

10/2s to 40 BPS, continuing the โ™‰๏ธ๐Ÿฅž

2Y 1.598 +0.038
5Y 1.931 -0.013
10Y 2.005 -0.026
30Y 2.266 -0.036

Global 10Ys โ†”๏ธ
CAN 1.937 +0.09
AUS 2.164 -0.025
The bond market is doing the Fed's job, and now, they will be forced to chase.

The probability of a rate hike NEXT WEEK โฌ†๏ธ

The end of risk parity is nigh

Be careful out there

Have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐday and a GREAT weekend!
๐Ÿˆ๐Ÿˆ๐Ÿˆ๐Ÿšš๐Ÿš’๐Ÿš› ?
#FX update
Russia hikes 1% to 9.5%

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
ใ€€

Keep Current with Ted Darling

Ted Darling Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tdarling1

Ted Darling Profile picture
Feb 13
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review 02/013/22

1/11

Lots of speculation about where to from here?

Sometimes, itโ€™s as simple as looking at clear Trends

Equities ๐Ÿป
Bonds ๐Ÿป
Commodities โ™‰๏ธ
Volatility โ™‰๏ธ
USD ๐Ÿ˜‘
Gold ๐Ÿ˜‘

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/11

With markets closed before ๐Ÿช†๐Ÿ˜ฑ, internatโ€™l equities โ†—๏ธ last week

$SSEC +3.0% (w) -2.15% (T)
$DAX +2.15% (w) -4.15% (T)
$HSI +1.35% (w) -1.65% (T)
$NIKK +0.95% (w) -6.55% (T)
$CAC +0.9% (w) -1.15% (T)
$KOSPI -0.9% (w) -7.45% (T)

Chart: $DAX remains ๐Ÿป (T) = Trend = 3 mos Image
2a/11

Chart: $HSI now โ™‰๏ธ (t) = trade = 1 mo = +2.15%
A close above 25,050 would confirm โ™‰๏ธ trend Image
Read 24 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Feb 1
Hello February! ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฐ

Biggest mistake of January?
Selling most of my $CRB +9.79% exposure

No ๐Ÿ‘€ back and ๐Ÿ˜ญ over spilled ๐Ÿฅ›

Time to grab the ๐Ÿฏ by the #tail and dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Most of Asia celebrating ๐Ÿฏ

Good idea given January returns with $KOSPI -10.56%, $SSEC -7.65, and $NIKK -6.22%

Tuesday trading
$NIKK 27078 +0.3%
$BSE 58871 +0.8%
January returns for Euro area were โ†˜๏ธ but better than USA and Asia

January: $DAX -2.6% and $CAC -2.15%

Early trade
$DAX 15599 +0.8%
$FTSE 7533 +0.9%
$CAC 7065 +0.95%
$AEX 762 +0.9%
$IBEX 8706 +1.1%
$MIB 27091 +1.05%
$SMI 12327 +0.8%
$MOEX 3561 +0.9% ๐Ÿช†
Read 10 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 31
Hello Monday! ๐Ÿฏ

Much of Asia closed for NY eve ๐Ÿฅณ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿช…๐Ÿพ

Equity markets building on Friday's gains
No signs of weakness in the $CRB to end the month

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
๐Ÿฏ symbolizes power, courage, confidence, leadership and strength

$NIKK 27001 +1.05%
$SSEC ๐Ÿฏ
$TWII ๐Ÿฏ
$HSI ๐Ÿฏ
$KOSPI ๐Ÿฏ
$IDX 6631 -0.2%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6972 -0.25%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 58160 +1.7%
Europe opens โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 15504 +1.2%
$FTSE 7479 +0.2%
$CAC 7020 +0.75%
$AEX 756 +1.55%
$IBEX 8632 +0.25%
$MIB 26899 +1.25%
$SMI 12236 +1.1%
$MOEX 3544 +1.6% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 29.41
Read 11 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 30
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review - 01/30/2022

1/13

With Joeโ€™s blessing (#inflation no good for re-election bid), JPOW is hell bent on โ†—๏ธ rates and draining ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ

Backward ๐Ÿ‘€ ๐Ÿงฎ shows 4Q21 GDP +7.0% with +7.0% price deflator and #PCE +4.8%, a 40-year high, butโ€ฆ
2/n
โ€ฆ @AtlantaFed is nowcasting Q122 GPD estimate of +0.5% โ†˜๏ธ

With $CRB +15.9% ๐Ÿš€ off December 1 lows, the evidence of #inflation โ†˜๏ธ is thin.

That said, Fed WILL tighten into a GDP slow down as fiscal spend โ†˜๏ธ markedly y/y ๐Ÿ˜ฑ

Chart: $CRB at cycle highs. ๐Ÿ”?
3/13

Hydrocarbons said ๐Ÿ–•to the Fed

$WTIC +1.97% (w) +15.44% (m)
$BRENT +3.0% (w) +16.41% (m)
$GASO +3.67% (w) +14.41% (m)
$NATGAS +22.75% (w) +24.4% (m)

(w = week, m = month = trade = t)

Chart: Natty ripped the face off the ๐Ÿป๐Ÿป
Read 15 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 28
Hello Friday!

WTD #dispersion

$CAC -0.65%
$COMPQ -3.0%
$AORD -5.0%
$NIKK -4.9%
$KOSPI -7.75%

$VXN +7.6%

$BTC +0.55%
$AUDUSD -1.95%
$GOLD -2.0%

$NATGAS +13.25%
$PALL +12.45%
$BRENT +2.5%
$CORN+1.45%
$CRB +1.0%
$COPPER -2.2%

$TLT -0.4%

Let's dig into the early morning ๐Ÿงฎ!
๐Ÿป held sway in Asia with indices โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 26717 +2.1% โฌ…๏ธ
$SSEC 3361 -0.95%
$TWII 17674 -0.15%
$HSI 23550 -1.1%
$KOSPI 2663 +1.85% โฌ…๏ธ
$IDX 6645 +0.5%

Australia ๐Ÿฆ˜โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 6998 +2.2%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 57197 -0.15%
Europe succumbing to the ๐Ÿปโ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15293 -1.5%
$FTSE 7486 -0.9%
$CAC 6843 -1.15%
$AEX 742 -1.45%
$IBEX 8602 -1.15%
$FTSE 26561 -1.2%
$SMI 12083 -0.75%
$MOEX 3504 +1.4% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 28.03
Read 11 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 23
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review 01/23/2022

1/13

US equity distribution โ†˜๏ธ continued with a vengeance into Fridayโ€™s #OPEX

VIX โ†—๏ธ to ~30 ahead of Wednesdayโ€™s #FOMC event risk, leading to vol backwardation - a SHORT-TERM โ™‰๏ธ signal

Letโ€™s dig into the week's ๐Ÿงฎ!
2a/13

High correlation between the UST2Y crossing the 1.0% Rubicon on Tuesday nightโ€™s open and acceleration โ†˜๏ธ in US equity markets

How pathetic is it that the equity market cannot tolerate a 1% 2Y?

2b/13

Nonetheless, $TNX turned on a dime Wednesday leading to a further flattering of the yield curve with 10/s to 75.5 BPS -36% over the past 3 months (T = Trend) and 30/5s to 51.3 BPS -41% over T duration.

Chart: TNX daily
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @tdarling1 has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @tdarling1!

Read all threads by @tdarling1

:(