Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review 02/013/22

1/11

Lots of speculation about where to from here?

Sometimes, it’s as simple as looking at clear Trends

Equities 🐻
Bonds 🐻
Commodities ♉️
Volatility ♉️
USD 😑
Gold 😑

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

2/11

With markets closed before 🪆😱, internat’l equities ↗️ last week

$SSEC +3.0% (w) -2.15% (T)
$DAX +2.15% (w) -4.15% (T)
$HSI +1.35% (w) -1.65% (T)
$NIKK +0.95% (w) -6.55% (T)
$CAC +0.9% (w) -1.15% (T)
$KOSPI -0.9% (w) -7.45% (T)

Chart: $DAX remains 🐻 (T) = Trend = 3 mos

2a/11

Chart: $HSI now ♉️ (t) = trade = 1 mo = +2.15%
A close above 25,050 would confirm ♉️ trend

3/11

Top internat’t ETFs hale from resource rich countries

$EWW +4.25% (w) +3.15% (T) 🆕 ♉️
$EWZ +2.65% (w) +5.38% (T)
$EWA +2.4% (w) -9.25^ (T)
$THD +1.7% (w) +0.55% (T)

Chart: $EWZ has been signaling ♉️ for weeks, and I ignored it along with $CRB. Why?!

3a/11

Weakest internat'l ETFs in crash mode

$RSX -3.5% (w) -25.8% (T)
$EWD -3.3% (w) -16.0% (T)
$INDA -2.65% (w) -13.0% (T)
$EWN -2.5% (w) -15.1% (T)

Chart: $RSX🪆reeling from 🪖 aggression and 1% rate hike

4/11

Great Thursday morning call by @KeithMcCullough to short Qs

$COMPQ -2.18% (w) -13.05% (T)
$SPX -1.8% (w) -5.65% (T)
$IWM +1.5% (w) -15.9% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ -11.85% YTD

4a/11

Chart: IWM +1.5% (w) small caps outperformed but failed right at previous support ~209

4b/11

Chart: $VXN 34.16 reinforcing Qs as un-investable

5/11

Top US equity sectors
$XLE +2.2% (w) +22.35% (T)
$XLB +1.06% (w) -6.75% (T)
$XLF +0.02% (w) -0.1% (T)

Chart: $XME +9.35% metals & mining subsector 🆕 ♉️ ripped to ATH

(Top holdings include $BTU, $AA, $ATI, $ARCH, $FCX, $NEM, $NUE)

5a/11

Weakest US sectors
$XLK -2.95 (w) -7.4% (T)
$XLRE 2.7% (w) -5.75% (T)
$XLC -2.6% (w) -14.7% (T)
$XLY -2.15% (w) -11.45% (T)

Chart: $XLK -11% YTD

6/11

Hydrocarbons - ex Natty - continued their ♉️ 🏃🏿‍♀️

$BRENT +2.65% (w) +15.9% (T)
$GASO + 2.25% (w) +18.6% (T)
$WTIC +0.85% (w) +15.25% (T)
$NATGAS -13.8% (w) -17.75% (T)

Chart: $BRENT ripping ↗️ to cycle highs

6a/11

Chart: Natty moved 1.88 in 2 weeks.
Can you trade that vol?

$NATGAS remains 🐻 (t) + (T)

6b/11

Chart: $OVX 47.44 keeping 🛢 in investable mode

7/11

Precious metals led the complex ↗️

$SILVER +3.95% (w) -7.81% (T)
$GOLD +1.9% (w) -1.4% (T)
$COPPER +0.45% (w) +1.35% (T)
$PLAT -0.54% (w) -6.45% (T)

Chart: $GOLD a close > 1880 confirms ♉️ trend

7a/11

Chart: $COPPER is directionless ⬆️⬇️, chopping around in a multi-month ♉️ wedge

7b/n

Chart: $PLAT -0.55% (w) -6.45% unable to break the downtrend

8/11

Grains keep ripping ↗️ with $DBA at a new cycle high

$CORN +4.9% (w) +12.8% (T)
$WHEAT +4.5% (w) -2.35% (T)
$SOYB +1.9% (w) +27.25% (T)
$SUGAR +0.15% (w) -8.75% (T)

Chart: $WHEAT +7.6% (t) ready for another leg ↗️

8a/n

Chart:
$COFFEE +4.15% (w) +13.5% (T) percolating ☕️

9/11

More chop in #FX space

$USD +0.62% (w) +1.0% (T)
$AUD +0.7% (w) -2.75% (T)
$EUR -0.87% (w) -0.79% (T)
$GBP +0.62% (w) +1.12% (T)

Chart: $USD hanging onto ♉️ Trend

10/11

Absolute carnage 🥩 at the front end of the UST curve
102s to 43 BPS -16.9 BPS 🥞
30/5 to 40 BPS -3.9 BPS 🥞

2Y 1.487 +17.1 BPS
5Y 1.833 +6 BPS
10Y 1.918 unch
30Y 2.234 unch

Chart: UST 2Y yield has DOUBLED since the start of the year

10a/11

Chart:
MOVE 94.03 😱 new 52-week high

10b/11

Chart: JPT10Y 🚀

10c/11

Chart: $HYG -1.3% getting crushed

11/11

Markets are Trending; ignore or fight 🤺 at your own peril

Better to #STFR in 🐻 Trends and #BTFD in ♉️ Trends

Regime = #Quad3 #Stagflation

No heroics and have a super profitable 💰 week!