Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Feb 11, 2022 13 tweets 18 min read Read on X
New US #IndoPacific #Strategy!

Read full text here: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

"The #PRC..pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-#Pacific & seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion & aggression spans the globe, but..is most acute in..Indo-Pacific."
#INDOPACIFIC: The Region by the #s

#POPULATION: Over half the world’s people, including 58% of youth

#ECONOMY: 60% of global GDP

#GROWTH: 2/3 of global economic growth

#GEOGRAPHY: 65% of the world’s oceans &🌊 25% of its land

>#STRATEGY: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
From the new U.S. #IndoPacific #Strategy:

"The United States is the leading international provider
of education to students from the Indo-#Pacific—nearly 68% of international students studying in the United States hail from the region..."

Read full text: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"2-way trade between the US & the region totaled $1.75 trillion in 2020, & it supports >5MM #IndoPacific jobs. FDI from the US totaled >$969B in 2020 & has nearly doubled in the last decade."

US Indo-#Pacific #Strategy details region's critical importance:whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"US remains the #1 investment partner in #ASEAN member countries—investing >...next 3...combined. And the United States is the primary exporter of services to the region, which, in turn, fuels regional growth."

From the #IndoPacific #Strategy of the US:

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"#Integrated #deterrence will be the cornerstone of our approach.

We will more tightly integrate our efforts across #warfighting domains & the spectrum of conflict to ensure that the US, alongside our allies & partners, can dissuade or #defeat #aggression in any form or domain."
"We will also work... to maintain #peace & stability in the #TaiwanStrait, including by supporting #Taiwan’s self-#defense capabilities, to ensure an environment in which Taiwan’s #future is determined peacefully in accordance with the wishes & best interests of Taiwan’s people."
Among "ten core lines of effort in the next 12 to 24 months":

"We will open new embassies & consulates, particularly in SEAsia & the #Pacific Islands, & increase our strength in existing ones...

expand @USCG presence & cooperation in SE & S #Asia & the #PacificIslands...."
More action items from #IndoPacific #Strategy:

"We will also expand the role of people-to-people exchange, including the @PeaceCorps.

Within the U.S. government, we will ensure we have the necessary capacity & expertise to meet the region’s challenges."

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
Key emphasis in new U.S. #IndoPacific #Strategy:

"The US will defend our interests, deter #military aggression against our own country & our allies & partners—including across the #Taiwan Strait—& promote regional #security...."

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
#AUKUS is both an #Allied destination (#SSNs) & a journey (big benefits along the way):

"in addition, we will deepen cooperation & enhance interoperability through a concrete program of work on advanced capabilities, including #cyber, #AI, #quantum tech & undersea capabilities."
"We have entered a consequential new period of American foreign policy that will demand more of the
US in the #IndoPacific than has been asked of us since..[#WorldWarII].Our vital interests in the region have become ever-clearer just as they have become more difficult to protect"
"The #IndoPacific’s future depends on the choices we make now. The *DECISIVE DECADE* before us will
determine..whether we can sustain the principles of openness, transparency & inclusivity that have fueled the region’s success."

#THREAD

#DecadeOfDanger:

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

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More from @AndrewSErickson

May 12
Nicholas Eberstadt @AEI just published a seminal future-forecast article @ForeignAffairs.

tl;dr — #Demographics matter because people matter, greatly. #Depopulation propels #China on unprecedented #SCurved slowdown, as Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute & I wrote in 2011: East Asia & Russia face catastrophic aging.

Read this #demographic expose in full—or, at very least, these key excerpts...chinasignpost.com/2011/08/15/chi…
"In the decades immediately ahead, East #Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic #demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—#China, #Japan, #SouthKorea, & #Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of #depopulation, in which they will age dramatically & lose millions of people. According to projections from the #Population Division of @UNDESA, China’s & Japan’s populations are set to fall by 8% & 18%, respectively, between 2020 & 2050. South #Korea’s population is poised to shrink by 12%. & Taiwan’s will go down by an estimated 8%. The US population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12%."

foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asi…
"Because of the effects on #China, East #Asia’s loss promises to be Washington’s geopolitical gain. But the drag on #EastAsia’s democracies will create problems for Washington."

foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asi…
Read 18 tweets
Dec 27, 2023
New! #CMSI Note 1: “#Admiral Hu to the Helm: #China’s New #Navy Commander Brings Operational Expertise”



Honored to inaugurate this @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime series with Director @ChrisHSharman!

Here’s what you need to know now about new #PRC #naval leader #HuZhongming (#胡中明)...bit.ly/HuZhongmingImage
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On 25 December 2023, Commander-in-Chief #Xi Jinping, in his capacity as Central #Military Commission Chairman, promoted Vice Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明) to Admiral & appointed him Commander of the People’s Liberation Army #Navy (PLAN) (#海军司令员).

bit.ly/HuZhongming



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@SECNAV @NavyTimes @B_Mulvaney @roderick_s_lee @EBKania @ChongJaIan @CollinSLKoh @knmccauley1 @ZackCooper @ajphelo @ChinaMaritime Perspectives & Key Take-Aways:

#Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明)’s operational experience commanding both #submarines & surface #ships will enable him to guide PLA #Navy efforts to improve coordination across #warfare domains.


/@BonnieGlaser bit.ly/HuZhongming



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Read 14 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
"To spend time in #China at the end of #Xi’s 1st decade is to witness a nation slipping from motion to stagnation &, for the 1st time in a generation, questioning whether a #Communist superpower can escape the contradictions that doomed the #SovietUnion."

newyorker.com/magazine/2023/…
"The clips circulate abroad with the mocking caption 'West #NorthKorea,' but at home #censors vigilantly guard #Xi’s honor; a leak from a #Chinese social-media site last year revealed that it blocks no fewer than 564 nicknames for him, including Caesar, the Last Emperor, & 21 variations of Winnie-the-#Pooh."

"Year by year, #Xi appears more at home in the world of the man he calls his 'best & closest friend,' Vladimir #Putin. In March, after @IntlCrimCourt issued an arrest warrant for the #Russian President on #war-#crimes charges, Putin hosted Xi in #Moscow, where they described relations as the best they have ever been. Clasping hands for a farewell in the doorway of the #Kremlin, Xi told Putin, 'Right now there are changes—the likes of which we haven’t seen for a hundred years—& we are the ones driving these changes together.' Putin responded, 'I agree.'"
Read 39 tweets
Dec 14, 2022
Honored to be cited by @iandenisjohnson @NewYorker:
newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

"Andrew Erickson, a professor @NavalWarCollege & a visiting professor at @Harvard, said he’s seen no evidence that #China..."

For further background, see: sites.harvard.edu/coexistence/
thewirechina.com/2022/12/04/fix…
...wants to reciprocate, citing #China’s refusal to discuss meaningful arms control. “I don’t see a basis for deep coöperation” with #Xi’s China, Erickson said. “I’m sad to say that.”

newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

KEY: In what areas is the #PRC under Xi willing to accommodate the US?
•To make the first move in doing so?
•Can anyone name one specific example?

Moreover, in the #PRC under #Xi, is there anything like an equivalent to this high-profile conference @Harvard, w a concluding panel on the subject of “Toward Coexistence 2.0: What Should #CHINA Do?”
Read 35 tweets
Oct 4, 2022
Some context re. reported speed of #NorthKorean #missile:

All #ballistic #missiles are #hypersonic (faster than Mach 5) at some point in their flight. N.Germany’s V-2, deployed Sept. 1944, was hypersonic during its boost phase. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (#ICBMs)… 1/n
…, first deployed by the US in 1959, are high-hypersonic (Mach 25) throughout their entire flight. Subsequent decades have witnessed the emergence of “#hypersonic#missile systems that can maneuver instead of following a fixed parabolic trajectory, including #ASBMs, #HGVs 2/n
…and air-breathing supersonic combustion ramjets (#scramjets). The US investigated maneuvering re-entry vehicles in the late 1970s, the #SovietUnion #HGVs in the mid-1980s; both failed. In 1981, the US fielded the #PershingII medium-range #ballistic #missile (#MRBM), whose… 3/n
Read 8 tweets
Jul 31, 2022
As #Kissinger shouted at 1969 football game, "On what theory?"
nytimes.com/1970/02/19/arc…

An alternative possibility—the "Ducks in a Row" approach:

Ambitious but failure averse, #Xi faces strong incentives to max forces before attempting one of (recent) history's greatest gambles.
"Ducks in a Row" model ≠ theoretical speculation.

#Xi himself has charged #PLA w/ achieving 2027 "Centennial #Military Building Goal" (#建军一百年奋斗目标).

DoD: "this would provide Beijing w/ more credible military options in a #Taiwan contingency."

>>andrewerickson.com/2021/12/prc-pu… ImageImageImageImage
"Ducks in a Row" model allows ZERO room for complacency.

#Xi may well PREFER +-5 years more #PLA prep to attempt max-stakes mark on #history.

But many factors now in play, stakes high, margins thin.

#PRC rhetoric re @SpeakerPelosi trip suggests growing tensions moving forward. ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets

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