"The #PRC..pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-#Pacific & seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion & aggression spans the globe, but..is most acute in..Indo-Pacific."
"The United States is the leading international provider
of education to students from the Indo-#Pacific—nearly 68% of international students studying in the United States hail from the region..."
"2-way trade between the US & the region totaled $1.75 trillion in 2020, & it supports >5MM #IndoPacific jobs. FDI from the US totaled >$969B in 2020 & has nearly doubled in the last decade."
"US remains the #1 investment partner in #ASEAN member countries—investing >...next 3...combined. And the United States is the primary exporter of services to the region, which, in turn, fuels regional growth."
We will more tightly integrate our efforts across #warfighting domains & the spectrum of conflict to ensure that the US, alongside our allies & partners, can dissuade or #defeat#aggression in any form or domain."
"We will also work... to maintain #peace & stability in the #TaiwanStrait, including by supporting #Taiwan’s self-#defense capabilities, to ensure an environment in which Taiwan’s #future is determined peacefully in accordance with the wishes & best interests of Taiwan’s people."
Among "ten core lines of effort in the next 12 to 24 months":
"We will open new embassies & consulates, particularly in SEAsia & the #Pacific Islands, & increase our strength in existing ones...
"The US will defend our interests, deter #military aggression against our own country & our allies & partners—including across the #Taiwan Strait—& promote regional #security...."
#AUKUS is both an #Allied destination (#SSNs) & a journey (big benefits along the way):
"in addition, we will deepen cooperation & enhance interoperability through a concrete program of work on advanced capabilities, including #cyber, #AI, #quantum tech & undersea capabilities."
"We have entered a consequential new period of American foreign policy that will demand more of the
US in the #IndoPacific than has been asked of us since..[#WorldWarII].Our vital interests in the region have become ever-clearer just as they have become more difficult to protect"
"The #IndoPacific’s future depends on the choices we make now. The *DECISIVE DECADE* before us will
determine..whether we can sustain the principles of openness, transparency & inclusivity that have fueled the region’s success."
No! With all due respect, China's not building & training with unique #Shuiqiao-class Bridge Barges "to deliver humanitarian supplies to disaster-struck regions with poor port infrastructure"!
Make no mistake: #China's new bridge-barges are purpose-built for a #Taiwan invasion scenario. They embody the seriousness with which the PRC under #Xi is pursuing control & absorption of Taiwan by any & all means possible.
The Shuiqiao-185, Shuiqiao-135, Shuiqiao-110—so named for their hull length (bridge stowed), as measured in #OpenSource commercial imagery—are not multirole platforms like aircraft carriers but rather a dedicated platform for landing high volumes of wheeled & tracked military vehicles on beaches.
There are no other such platforms anywhere in the world, because no other country than China is preparing to try to be able to invade Taiwan.
There is no need to resort to such unique platforms for humanitarian assistance & disaster relief, which is not opposed by hostile shore-based forces.
China under Xi would not waste resources of such a specialized, dedicated system if it were not bore-sighted on taking Taiwan by threat, or use, of force.
Every type of military equipment comes with its own risks & vulnerabilities. Any platform or system can be attrited if targeted sufficiently.
Incapable of substantial self-defense, #China’s new #Shuiqiao bridge barges represent lucrative targets highly vulnerable on the open ocean, where they could be destroyed by land-based weapons such as ATACMS (the Army Tactical Missile System, a U.S. long-range, precision-strike surface-to-surface missile system) & MLRS (multiple-launch rocket systems).
During a contested military operation, PRC bridge barges cannot hope to survive in isolation. Rather, they would operate as just one part of a large, numerous, diverse offensive & defensive system-of-systems.
To land the Shuiqiaos at an acceptable risk of loss, China’s military forces would first have to suppress #Taiwan defenders’ direct & indirect fire systems (e.g., with up to thousands of PLA rockets ranging from the PLA Army’s numerous PCH191 close-range ballistic missiles to the PLA Rocket Forces’ larger ballistic missiles).
Nicholas Eberstadt @AEI just published a seminal future-forecast article @ForeignAffairs.
tl;dr — #Demographics matter because people matter, greatly. #Depopulation propels #China on unprecedented #SCurved slowdown, as Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute & I wrote in 2011: East Asia & Russia face catastrophic aging.
"In the decades immediately ahead, East #Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic #demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—#China, #Japan, #SouthKorea, & #Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of #depopulation, in which they will age dramatically & lose millions of people. According to projections from the #Population Division of @UNDESA, China’s & Japan’s populations are set to fall by 8% & 18%, respectively, between 2020 & 2050. South #Korea’s population is poised to shrink by 12%. & Taiwan’s will go down by an estimated 8%. The US population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12%."
"Because of the effects on #China, East #Asia’s loss promises to be Washington’s geopolitical gain. But the drag on #EastAsia’s democracies will create problems for Washington."
New! #CMSI Note 1: “#Admiral Hu to the Helm: #China’s New #Navy Commander Brings Operational Expertise”
Honored to inaugurate this @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime series with Director @ChrisHSharman!
Here’s what you need to know now about new #PRC #naval leader #HuZhongming (#胡中明)...bit.ly/HuZhongming
On 25 December 2023, Commander-in-Chief #Xi Jinping, in his capacity as Central #Military Commission Chairman, promoted Vice Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明) to Admiral & appointed him Commander of the People’s Liberation Army #Navy (PLAN) (#海军司令员).
#Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明)’s operational experience commanding both #submarines & surface #ships will enable him to guide PLA #Navy efforts to improve coordination across #warfare domains.
"To spend time in #China at the end of #Xi’s 1st decade is to witness a nation slipping from motion to stagnation &, for the 1st time in a generation, questioning whether a #Communist superpower can escape the contradictions that doomed the #SovietUnion."
"The clips circulate abroad with the mocking caption 'West #NorthKorea,' but at home #censors vigilantly guard #Xi’s honor; a leak from a #Chinese social-media site last year revealed that it blocks no fewer than 564 nicknames for him, including Caesar, the Last Emperor, & 21 variations of Winnie-the-#Pooh."
"Year by year, #Xi appears more at home in the world of the man he calls his 'best & closest friend,' Vladimir #Putin. In March, after @IntlCrimCourt issued an arrest warrant for the #Russian President on #war-#crimes charges, Putin hosted Xi in #Moscow, where they described relations as the best they have ever been. Clasping hands for a farewell in the doorway of the #Kremlin, Xi told Putin, 'Right now there are changes—the likes of which we haven’t seen for a hundred years—& we are the ones driving these changes together.' Putin responded, 'I agree.'"
...wants to reciprocate, citing #China’s refusal to discuss meaningful arms control. “I don’t see a basis for deep coöperation” with #Xi’s China, Erickson said. “I’m sad to say that.”
KEY: In what areas is the #PRC under Xi willing to accommodate the US?
•To make the first move in doing so?
•Can anyone name one specific example?
Moreover, in the #PRC under #Xi, is there anything like an equivalent to this high-profile conference @Harvard, w a concluding panel on the subject of “Toward Coexistence 2.0: What Should #CHINA Do?”
All #ballistic#missiles are #hypersonic (faster than Mach 5) at some point in their flight. N.Germany’s V-2, deployed Sept. 1944, was hypersonic during its boost phase. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (#ICBMs)… 1/n
…, first deployed by the US in 1959, are high-hypersonic (Mach 25) throughout their entire flight. Subsequent decades have witnessed the emergence of “#hypersonic” #missile systems that can maneuver instead of following a fixed parabolic trajectory, including #ASBMs, #HGVs… 2/n
…and air-breathing supersonic combustion ramjets (#scramjets). The US investigated maneuvering re-entry vehicles in the late 1970s, the #SovietUnion#HGVs in the mid-1980s; both failed. In 1981, the US fielded the #PershingII medium-range #ballistic#missile (#MRBM), whose… 3/n