Thread by @PLT_cheater

What is this #war about, how to make it infeasible for #Russia, and what consequences could it have? Here's what I see.

First let's talk about why the #UkraineInvasion happened. Obviously, none of the things said by #Russia are the true reason.

After all art has been stolen, assets removed, people displaced or killed, and infrastructure destroyed, what is left? Land, buildings, natural resources.

The long term spoils of #Russia's invasion on #Ukraine are the dismantling of the old ruling class and installing of a new one which has sponsored this war. Make no mistake, Putin is representing not his own interests, but the interests of a group of people behind him.

If #Russia wins, after it is done pillaging #Ukraine, the land will be divided, houses will be auctioned off or given away on preferential basis, and rule over areas awarded by preference.

This is a #war for the benefit of landlords and would-be rulers.

The (obviously #Russia-installed) separatists in #Ukraine are controlling an area that houses about 2 million people. Just rent alone will create a new group of Russian ultra-rich. Gov positions will allow preferential awarding of infrastructure contracts (roads, civil, etc).

The whole current order in those areas - currently still belonging to #Ukraine - will be gone and will be filled by #Russia with new people. Imagine what it means for your company that it'll be tasked with restoring all destroyed roads in the #Donbas region. Billions in earnings.

If Russia takes over #Ukraine, there will be contracts for electrical, gas, hydro, medical, fire dept, police, literally every aspect of the modern world as you know it. And then the rent, and house flipping. Each of those points is a billion dollar win for whoever gets it.

The newly installed rent holder class will be rich forever. It represents an unimaginable amount of riches. eg: selling a house is worth $10-100k in #Ukraine. Building a hospital a few million. Holding a class of rent is worth billions over runtime. This is a #LandlordsWar.

There is no mistake that this is a #LandlordsWar. Putin knew exactly what would happen if he invaded. He knew the sanctions that would happen - loss of economic exchange, being cut off from the world. He knew this would make #Russia an island and a cold war would follow.

However, even after WWII the #ColdWar only lasted a few generations. Holding land and rent lasts for thousands of years, especially if you have a military that can hold it. The long Cold War will solidify new ownership of #Ukraine land rather than delegitimize it.

Think about relations with #Russia even 2 months ago. Russia, cool place, you can go there on a motor bike trip, buy a fur hat, eat McDonald's. They're just like us, our brothers. And just as well people will forget this upset with #Ukraine sooner rather than later. #LandlordsWar

You might be upset about #Ukraine, but you will die in 50 years. A land grant, a piece of paper, will survive you just as well in perfect health, forever stored in electronic vaults. No matter what you think or do, what sanctions you impose. #LandlordsWar will have succeeded.

Long after you have died, the children who you told about #UkraineWar have died, and the grand children who were annoyed about your stupid #Russia stories, you nationalist git (after all Russia is cool now in year 2122), Russian landlords will still own #Ukraine. #LandlordsWar

Two million people living in #Ukraine in the #Donbas region. More in #Crimea. Let's say one million houses, flats, etc. Let's say rent is cheap, $100 (an AirBnB is $20/night). Over 200 years, that is 200*12*100*1M = $240000000000. That's 24 with 10 zeros behind it. #LandlordsWar

If #Russia grabs the #Ukraine region of #Donbass (alternate spelling), Russian landlords will be $240000000000 richer over 200 years. That's 240 BILLION dollars. 200 years from now, there will be no SWIFT lock-out, no trade sanctions, no travel restrictions. #LandlordsWar

Over the next 500 years, and including inflation, increase of worth over time, rent gains will easily hit a sum of $1 Trillion. This is how much the families - no, dynasties - of #Russia landlords will gain from #UkraineWar. #LandlordsWar

$1 Trillion gains is just one aspect of what #Russian elites see in the all-you-can-eat buffet they call #Ukraine. Bear in mind they will also own the infrastructure, economy, and all other aspects. This number easily rises to $ hundreds of trillions of enrichment. #LandlordsWar

There is only one thing to show these people. As much as they want to provide for their family, and set up impermeable dynasties based on land and housing ownership, they still want their riches now, during their life. #Ukraine is just an extra for them. #LandlordsWar

The only way to successfully repel #UkraineWar is to disable the landlords pushing for this #LandlordsWar. Take away all Russian landlords and rich own outside of #Russia. All property must be forfeit and taken into administration or made social. Houses, land, companies, assets.

"But this will hurt the Russian people" - no, it won't. It will hurt the #Russia elite. The everyman has been on poverty line since before communism. The rich never help. It's an ultracapitalist state where everyone but the top is poor. They won't get poorer. #LandlordsWar

If land and asset seizures start happening, even provisionally on the premise of returning the assets once #Russia retreats and makes reparations for #UkraineWar, I assure you, the war will end within one week; and I am sure politicians around the world know this. #LandlordsWar

"But those #Russia elites legally own this land/factory/truck/ship! There is no precedent!" - the word "legally" is defined by whomever defines the law. The politicians and their governments. Yes, there is precedent. If there isn't, MAKE IT. #LandlordsWar

There is a lot of precedent for repossessing foreign assets within your borders if the foreign power has attacked the world community at large. This is the reason why war is an exit clause to all contracts in many countries, set so in law. #LandlordsWar

The world has to show that if #Russia wants to grab #Ukraine and carve it up like a birthday cake and give it to its elites, then those elites stand to lose everything they know in the whole world they know. No more chateau in Lyons. No more Miami beach house. #LandlordsWar

Currently, the #UkraineWar has drawn the ire of some governments who are freezing assets of some select #Russia elites. The list is very short. Each of those people is easily a fall guy, and they could be hiding their assets in shells. #LandlordsWar

icij.org/investigations…

These sanctions are not enough. Anyone who's ever looked into how a scam works knows that criminals always mask their assets. They will use shell companies. They will change their nationality. They will give them to a fall guy to own for them while under threat. #LandlordsWar

This is how a rich man living in a $100M mansion can go to court and legally and truthfully say that he is too poor to afford fixing a toilet in a flat he's landlord in. #LandlordsWar

The only thing that will stop #UkraineWar is a complete ban on Russian ownership of assets outside of #Russia. I know what you're thinking, but you're not thinking in *hundreds of years*. Let me explain before you condemn the idea. Read the following tweets. #LandlordsWar

Here's what you think: this will only stop people who haven't masked their ownership. Mad Vlad can own a company in Georgia or Belarus and that company will own his Czech Dacha for him. Stupid idea? #LandlordsWar

But that will not work. Chains of custody can be traced. Mad Vlad's Dacha will ultimately be #Russia-owned. We currently have to rely on Panama Papers and other leaks to find out how to really sanction the Russian elite, even under the limited sanctions presented. #LandlordsWar

Here's how the criminal's mind works: "I am a trillionaire. I cannot tour the world like a supersized @Harrods to show my riches off because it's illegal, and the only thing stopping me is a Russian passport." #LandlordsWar

@Harrods Eventually, they will one by one get a different passport. (nasal tone) "Well, Ackshually, I am Ossetian". "...Georgian". "...Belarussian". One by one they will buy their ticket to the free world. A $50 admin fee and some politics later they have a penthouse in NYC. #LandlordsWar

@Harrods Here's what happens next. Law will tangle them up into their chosen nationality. It will require presence in whatever shell state they chose. Interaction with the people. Tying your interest to theirs. Eventually, the #Russia elite becomes Ossetian, Georgian, etc. #LandlordsWar

@Harrods This will fracture the tightly knit world of #Russia elites. One national identity is the #1 concern of any ruler of Russia, since times immemorial. There are no Ossetians, Siberians, etc. There are only Russians. And now, $trillions represent Georgian interest. #LandlordsWar

@Harrods Over *hundreds* of years, this will fracture #Russia and its identity. It will create rifts between the rich elites profiting from the pillaging of #Ukraine. That is something that Putin, when he sees it imagined, will shit his pants over. #LandlordsWar

@Harrods If extreme sanctions like the ones I propose are put in place, we will see one of the following outcomes: (tags #LandlordsWar #UkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine)

@Harrods 1. The now properly and hurtfully sanctioned #Russia elites see that they are not getting away with it. They will think: "Alpine vacation house or 50 000 broken down chalupas in #Donbas? Auf Wiedersehen #UkraineWar". War ends immediately.

@Harrods One possible outcome is that Putin and his most powerful proponents of #UkraineWar will take a fall. The less influential elites will take their place. Internal turmoil at the top will happen. While #Russia elites are busy, the rest of the world is left in peace. #LandlordsWar

@Harrods 2. #Russia national identity in the top elites crumbles. They slowly start drifting out, because they're rich and they can. None of them want to be stuck in Russia. Their influence remains, but their identity changes. Russia crumbles and another dissolution happens. #LandlordsWar

@Harrods This is an outcome when increased sanctions I propose are not enough for #UkraineWar to stop. This is Putin's nightmare - and every successor's. It's so far away from whatever he can imagine that he doesn't even consider this possibility. #LandlordsWar

@Harrods 3. #Russia keeps #Ukraine and holds onto their elite. They are forever shunned. They cannot travel in class in the free world - they are, at best, guests, and never masters of their own domain. This will sting very badly and none of them want this outcome. #LandlordsWar

@Harrods I don't know what to say about this possible outcome. It is ruin for #Russia and its elite. The everyman will continue settling out of Russia in order to find a better life, just like they do now. The elites deteriorate, all their riches unable to buy true freedom. #LandlordsWar

No matter the outcome, if extreme sanctions on ownership by #Russia citizens are put in place, it will send a clear message: Take #Donbas away from its people, and the world will take what you enjoy from you. Is this trade worth it for you, Mad Vlad? No? Thought so. #LandlordsWar

If the sanctions I propose come into place, a lot of rich people in #Russia will have to ask themselves the following question: Which picture do you want to own from now on? 1 or 2? Because now you can't have both. Do you want to give away 1 for 2? #LandlordsWar

The only people who will answer "YES" to this sort of trade are vehement nationalists on a crusade for Friedrich Ratzel's - and later Hitler's - notion of Lebensraum. Is this possible? #LandlordsWar

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebensraum

Lebensraum is mainly an ideology of settler-colonialism. Since decades, there have been reports of #Russia performing settler colonialism in ex-USSR states like #Ukraine. Russian citizens being paid or given other benefits for settling there. #LandlordsWar

This is how there's a "Russian Speaking Population" in #Donbas that Putin likes to refer to in his recent speeches. They didn't just spontaneously manifest like a Boltzmann Brain. They were put there. And now you have families living there since generations. #LandlordsWar

The next step of your plan is to install a #Russia leaning president in #Ukraine who until removal in 2014 quietly creates tension against the settlers. Meanwhile, you also create separatists to side with the settlers. Tensions rise, seemingly created by #Ukraine. #LandlordsWar

Now, "The Russian Speaking Population" is, according to your #Russian media, "being persecuted" and shelled and whatever. You have to defend anyone who speaks Russian, it is your duty! It is Casus Belli. A perfect 30-year plan. #LandlordsWar en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casus_bel…

However, there is a difference between this, and the Nazi ideology Lebensraum. Nazis created a state of apartheid, upper and lower classes (Aryan vs not), and they knew for people to integrate this into their morality it required extreme ideological radicalization. #LandlordsWar

The #Russia approach to settlerism is very "white gloves". It's like watching a magician steal your watch. They do things very cleanly, and if there's conflict, it's quick and in one of those dirty countries you don't care about. The sausage is made in secret. #LandlordsWar

There is not enough ideological factor. In as much as #Russia owns all media, including online (eg Yandex), they failed in total ideological control of their people. It's Lebensraum-Lite. They can't pull off what USSR could. Russian people think for themselves now. #LandlordsWar

This leads me to believe that there is not enough ideological core behind this land grab, and it's mostly a confidence scheme - a power play on the premise of "they won't do anything anyways". This would mean extreme sanctions will be successful. #UkraineWar #LandlordsWar

Putin is a grifter. He is the guy who goes into a corner shop and carries out a sixpack saying "I paid for it already". The employee won't chase. This is what Putin is hoping for. No lasting punishment. As of right now the free world hasn't proposed any. #UkraineWar #LandlordsWar

To give Putin and his backers something to really take seriously, these extreme sanctions against #Russia have to be put in place. #UkraineWar #LandlordsWar

https://twitter.com/PLT_cheater/status/1497687426516533248

If you got this far, I commend you. Consider retweeting some of the tweets you thought were most important for this thread. Spread the word that Russia stands to lose everything.