Thread by @michaelh992

#Breaking Russian news agency says negotiations between #Ukraine and #Russia will take place

RIA quotes Putin's advisor, Vladimir Medinsky, who is also slated to head the Russian delegation, as saying that #Ukraine has agreed to talks
ria.ru/20220227/ukrai…

The negotiations will take place at the border between Belarus and #Ukraine according to a Russian outlet.

At the same time, President Putin has placed his strategic (nuclear) deterrence force on high alert

Putin, who is meeting with Defense Minister Shoigu, and Gerasimov, says the decision to place #Russia's nuclear force on high alert is due to the "unfriendly" steps taken by Western countries

In general, what we've seen is that a public de-escalatory move from #Russia is generally accompanied by an escalation on the ground.

I would not be surprised if we see the most significant attempt to take Kyiv in the coming day

This plays into what I have mentioned here ⬇️

And after the gamble Putin took in Ukraine and his revisionist ramblings/James-Bond villain speech before the invasion, Western leaders must truly wonder if he has gone mad, or is just "playing" mad

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1495838494966665221

#Breaking Negotiations confirmed on the #Ukrainian side. Talks to take place on border between Belarus and Ukraine along Pripyat River

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497929591209529347

Russian media had claimed that Mykola Tochitsky, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, will head the delegation

Don't be fooled, Putin is still doing what he does best: Forcing negotiations to be held while pointing a gun at Kyiv and its allies.

The timing of the alert and ceasefire talks is not coincidental. The news were released almost exactly at the same time by Russian news outlets.

Now that one of Putin's "guns" (the Russian army) appears to be slightly less effective than initially thought, he is waving the good old nuclear threat.

Negotiations have begun #Ukraine #Russia

Russian Foreign Ministry quoted by Zvezda actually denies that the talks have started

The Russian Ministry says the two teams are arriving at the meeting point

Just as talks are starting ⬇️

https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1497954019477798912

#Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says Putin's decision to place #Russia's nuclear forces on high alert is meant to put pressure on the Ukrainian delegation.
unian.ua/politics/kuleb…

I hope this is not the case but I do think Kuleba's assessment (& mine above), may actually be the optimistic scenario. It's based on the idea that the negotiations occurring now have any kind of significance, which would push Putin to try and gain leverage ahead of the talks ⬇️

I think the pessimistic scenario (realistic one, on second thought?) is that these negotiations do not matter. Raising the nuclear threat is not a ploy to gain leverage, it is a pre-emptive move to intimidate the West as #Russia prepares to escalate its offensive vs #Ukraine

Zelensky says he does not believe much in the outcome of the meeting with Russian forces near Belarus. "Let them try", "it may only be a small one, but there is a chance" #Ukraine #Russia