Thread by @les_politiques

"#Putin means what he says: #Russia’s back is to the wall, and there is nowhere to which Russia can now retreat – for them it is existential."

thealtworld.com/alastair_crook…

This quote is pulled from an article by Alastair Crooke. Twitter won't let me post the link to the publisher's website. Here it is, just add https
://thealtworld.com/alastair_crooke/the-constructive-destruction-of-russias-model-of-relations-with-the-west

"The collective West was already angry. And it is apoplectic after #Putin shocked western leaders by ordering a special military op in Ukraine... So angry in fact is the West that the information space has literally bifurcated into two: It is all black & white, with no greys"

"For the West, #Putin has comprehensively defied #Biden; he has unilaterally and illegally ‘changed the borders’ of Europe and acted as a ‘revisionist power’...Putin is characterised as a new Hitler, and his acts asserted to be ‘illegal’."

"The late Stephen Cohen wrote of the dangers of such unqualified Manichanaeism — how the spectre of an evil-doing #Putin had so overwhelmed and toxified the #US image of him that Washington has been unable to think straight – not just about Putin – but about #Russia per se."

"Most Russians however, are behind #Putin with the recognition of the Donbas Republics..."

"In his national address, #Putin spoke with a bitterness that is reflected by many Russians. He views the post-2014 political developments in #Ukraine as having been engineered to create an anti-Russian regime in Kiev nurtured by the West, and w hostile intentions towards Russia"

"#Putin illustrated this point by explaining that “The #Ukraine-ian troop control system has already been integrated into NATO. This means that #NATO headquarters can issue direct commands to the Ukrainian armed forces, even to their separate units and squads”"

"#Putin also noted that the Russian constitution stipulates the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk regions to be as they were “at the time when they were part of #Ukraine”. This is a carefully worded formulation...(At issue here is Donetsk’s historic claim to coastal #Mariupol).

"#Putin’s recognition statement was accompanied by an ultimatum to the Kiev forces to cease their artillery bombardment across the Line of Control or face military consequences...but (after announcement)... multiple rocket-fire was used by the Kiev forces across the Control Line"

"#Putin immediately ordered what was evidently a pre-prepared Special Operation ‘to de-militarise and de-nazify Ukraine’. Russia’s military announced within a couple hours of the offensive that all of #Ukraine’s air defense systems had been taken out."

"When #Putin spoke of ‘de-nazification’ he was referring to the US co-option of a neo-Nazi formation in Ukraine’s AF to help mount the 2014 #Maidan coup. The so-called Azov Brigade had proved to be the most effective fighting force in pushing back the DLR militia in the Donbass"

"#Ukraine is the world’s only nation to have a neo-Nazi formation in its armed forces and there will be scores to be settled."

"#Putin’s Special Order has... shocked the West deeply...It has set the world – and its financial & energy markets – on edge...the latter may become the more salient. In 1979, upheavals in the ME sent energy prices soaring (as is occurring today), and western economies tumbling"

"it must be plain that #Putin’s short press conf on 22Feb is acting...as a powerful accelerant. The 'constructive destruction' of the old Global Order will proceed faster... It marks an End to Illusions...that the US imposed rules-based order remains an option" #Ukraine

"How then to interpret the extreme anger in the West?
The brutal first realisation underlying the anger is that the West has no intention – and critically, no ability – to counter #Russia’s moves militarily."

"#Biden has repeated the ‘no boots on the ground mantra’ again in the wake of Russian military operations. And for Europe, the imposition of a sanctions regime on #Russia could not have come at a worse moment. Europe is facing recession and a pre-existing energy crisis"

"Now the pressure will be on Europe to find additional sanctions. Sanctions there will be – and they will hurt Europeans directly in their pockets. Some European states are putting up a rear-guard action to limit sanctions that might worsen the coming European recession."

"the fact is that Europe is effectively sanctioning itself, and Moscow has promised to reciprocate... in a way that will hurt the US & Europe. We are in a new era. This prospect and impotence in the face of it, must account for a large portion of European frustration & anger"

"Washington professes to have a ‘killer weapon’ targeted at Moscow: sanctioning semi-conductor chips...'But this too, is a dangerous game. Putin has the means to cut off critical minerals and gases needed to sustain the West’s supply chain for semiconductor chips'".

"Moscow’s control over key strategic minerals could give #Russia leverage, akin to Opec’s energy stranglehold in 1973." #Ukraine

"Here lies the 2nd strand to Europe’s outpouring of frustration: the unspoken recognition that Biden’s Ukraine policy; the west’s failure of diplomacy; plus Germany’s cack-handed handling of the Nordstream 2 question, have doomed the EU to years of economic decline and suffering"

"The European ‘fear’ is grounded not only in the content of the Beijing joint declaration, but likely also that not in his entire life has #Putin before made a speech like Monday’s address to the Russian people... Putin’s speech portends a great fracture." #Ukraine

"It is dawning on Europeans...just how much of an inflection point #Putin’s address represents. It was framed around #Ukraine, yet the issue is incidental to the decision by Russia & China to change forever the geo-political balance & the security architecture of the globe"

"Russia-China Axis want separation. This is to come about either through dialogue (unlikely), or by a contest of escalating pain... US does not believe Xi & Putin possibly mean what they say – and they believe that the West has...dominance in the field of imposing pain" #Ukraine

"The West’s denial that #Putin ‘means it’ (ensuring the consequent failure of diplomacy) suggests that this crisis will be with us for at least the next two years. It is the start a drawn-out, high-stakes phase of a Russian-led effort to change the European security architecture"

"Ultimately – after a painful struggle – Europe will seek reconciliation. America will be slower: the Beltway hawks will try to double-down. And it will be the western economic and market situation that may ultimately determine the ‘when’." #Ukraine