Thread by @HannaNotte

An under-appreciated feature of the #UkraineWar is the emergence of #Israel and #Turkey as key international intermediaries. Israeli PM was in Moscow this past weekend, and Lavrov/Kuleba are meeting in Antalya for 1st high-level meeting since bgn of invasion tomorrow. A🧵(1/7)

After Cold War, ISR & TUR emerged as important economic partners for Russia in ME. Russian bilat trade w/both is more significant than with most Arab partners. W/Turkey: Gas, Akkuyu NPP, tourism, mil-tech cooperation. W/Israel: agricultural & food products, minerals, metals (2/7)

Both ISR & TUR, however, also entertain major economic ties with Ukraine. And they've been worried about minority communities suffering under the #UkraineInvasion. Turkey pulled out Crimean Tatars, Israel evacuated Jewish communities. (3/7)

Both ISR & TUR have to tread carefully not just given econ. relations with both RUS & UA. They also deconflict w/RUS in Syria, where Moscow gives "yellow light" to Israeli strikes against Iran-backed targets, while pursuing careful deconfliction w/Turkey in NW and NE Syria. (4/7)

With TUR, the "deconfliction-cooperation-competition" game extends beyond Syria, to Libya, Nagorno-Karab. & Black Sea. Will be fascinating to see how TUR's invocation of Montreux Convention will affect Russian mil ops in Black Sea & Eastern Med, if UA war drags on for long. (5/7)

Can ISR or TUR really mediate between RUS-UA during this confrontation? I doubt it.

But they're proving useful as messengers (ISR) & conveners (TUR), at a time when Russia has completely discarded W. countries as viable dialogue platforms (notwithstanding Macron efforts). (6/7)

As a Russian contact put it to me, Russians might start "looking East" for economic salvation amid pressure, but "looking South" for platforms for arbitration, mediation, off-shore activity etc. Too early to tell how much to make of this, but watch this space. (7/7)