Today, we'll enter the long but final stretch for #IPCC#AR6 WG III report on mitigation - the virtual approval session, finalizing the 'Summary for Policymakers' (SPM) with governments Full Report and SPM to be published on April 4
Some insights... ipcc.ch/meeting-doc/ip… [1/n]
First WG IIl lead author meeting took place 3 years ago, the process in itself way earlier. There've been delays because of #COVID19, but "Final Draft Report" has been submitted already in Nov 2021. The last months of work have been mainly about SPM ipcc.ch/about/preparin…
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There are strict confidentiality rules in the #IPCC when it comes to content, but as an intergovernmental organization, the #IPCC is quite transparent when it comes to process. apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
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WG III #AR6 Summary for Policymakers is organized by Headline Statements (HS), approval process is bundled in packages apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
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There is a standard process for approving each Headline Statement, vs. plenary, contact groups, huddles (if needed), and plenary again apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
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All these processes run in parallel, leading to a complex schedule. Furthermore, in a virtual approval session, government delegates and SPM authors work from their respective timezones. Plenary starting at 15:00 UTC runs 2-5:00am if you're in Syndney apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d… 6/n
The schedule changes in the 2nd week. A plenary starting 5:00 UTC will run from midnight to 3am if you're in Washington
If you're in Europe or Africa, schedule is still quite okay in the 2nd week apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
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Detailed modalities are quite similar to in-person approval sessions. And remember that this is not the first virtual #IPCC approval. Working Groups I and II approval sessions took place this way in August 2021 and February 2022 apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
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During following 2 weeks, you shouldn't hear anything from inside, but @IISD_ENB will post photos every day.
Approval shd be finished by April 1, report published April 4 (11am CEST). And some days after that you'll be able to read the always excellent @IISD_ENB analysis
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How will climate negotiators deal with diminishing carbon budget for 1.5C?
Some thoughts from our recent @OneEarth_CP paper "#UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions"
Now available #OpenAccess for 2 months cell.com/one-earth/full…#COP26
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Basic problem is quite easy to understand. We're very close to 1.5C, and even if you think it's still possible to stay within the remaining carbon budget (<500 Gt), this would mean that every country needs to reach net zero pretty soon. #COP26
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"Constructive ambiguity" is a useful tool to reach agreement under #UNFCCC. But problematic that #ParisAgreement doesn't exclude or at least sets clear constraints for 1.5C overshoot. Creates way too much flexibility
See our 2017 @NatureGeosci piece rdcu.be/cAqml#COP26
IPCC #AR6 WGI report on the physical science basis of climate change is out today.
Find the the Summary for Policymakers and the Full Report here ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
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First, some important context on remaining carbon budgets, pathways and net-zero emissions - since it doesn't make any sense to talk about Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) in isolation. ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ #IPCC#AR6
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The inconvenient truth about the #renewables boom in a world of growing energy consumption. Share of fossil fuels basically unchanged 2009-2019.
From @REN21's new 'Renewables 2021 Global Status Report' ren21.net/reports/global…
The 11.2% #renewables share excludes so-called 'traditional biomass' (e.g., wood for cookstoves). Even then, share of #bioenergy among renewables still considerable
From @REN21's new 'Renewables 2021 Global Status Report' ren21.net/reports/global…
You might have heard #renewables overtook fossil fuels in new infrastructure but this usually only refers to power sector & only to capacity not generation. Picture for whole energy system rather bleak
From @REN21's new Renewables 2021 Global Status Report ren21.net/reports/global…
A crucial aspect still unclear in Biden administration's #climate policy plan. Does "net-zero economy by 2050" cover all greenhouse gases (like in EU) or only CO2 (like US 2035 target for power sector)?
Net-zero GHG is much more ambitious than net-zero CO2 whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Net zero GHG is much harder to achieve than net zero CO2. In global scenarios, it takes 10-20 years longer swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R…
Main reason is that non-CO2 emissions like nitrous oxide (N20) and methane (CH4) are much harder or impossible to eliminate, so they need to be counterbalanced by CO2 removal, which takes longer.
Below global pathways. For countries, it depends on their specific emissions profile