Oliver Geden Profile picture
Mar 21 9 tweets 7 min read
Today, we'll enter the long but final stretch for #IPCC #AR6 WG III report on mitigation - the virtual approval session, finalizing the 'Summary for Policymakers' (SPM) with governments Full Report and SPM to be published on April 4
Some insights...
ipcc.ch/meeting-doc/ip… [1/n]
First WG IIl lead author meeting took place 3 years ago, the process in itself way earlier. There've been delays because of #COVID19, but "Final Draft Report" has been submitted already in Nov 2021. The last months of work have been mainly about SPM
ipcc.ch/about/preparin…
[2/n]
There are strict confidentiality rules in the #IPCC when it comes to content, but as an intergovernmental organization, the #IPCC is quite transparent when it comes to process.
apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
[3/n]
WG III #AR6 Summary for Policymakers is organized by Headline Statements (HS), approval process is bundled in packages
apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
[4/n]
There is a standard process for approving each Headline Statement, vs. plenary, contact groups, huddles (if needed), and plenary again
apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
[5/n]
All these processes run in parallel, leading to a complex schedule. Furthermore, in a virtual approval session, government delegates and SPM authors work from their respective timezones. Plenary starting at 15:00 UTC runs 2-5:00am if you're in Syndney
apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
6/n
The schedule changes in the 2nd week. A plenary starting 5:00 UTC will run from midnight to 3am if you're in Washington
If you're in Europe or Africa, schedule is still quite okay in the 2nd week
apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
[7/n]
Detailed modalities are quite similar to in-person approval sessions. And remember that this is not the first virtual #IPCC approval. Working Groups I and II approval sessions took place this way in August 2021 and February 2022
apps.ipcc.ch/eventmanager/d…
[8/]
During following 2 weeks, you shouldn't hear anything from inside, but @IISD_ENB will post photos every day.
Approval shd be finished by April 1, report published April 4 (11am CEST). And some days after that you'll be able to read the always excellent @IISD_ENB analysis
[end]

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More from @Oliver_Geden

Oct 29, 2021
How will climate negotiators deal with diminishing carbon budget for 1.5C?
Some thoughts from our recent @OneEarth_CP paper "#UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions"
Now available #OpenAccess for 2 months
cell.com/one-earth/full… #COP26
(1/n)
Basic problem is quite easy to understand. We're very close to 1.5C, and even if you think it's still possible to stay within the remaining carbon budget (<500 Gt), this would mean that every country needs to reach net zero pretty soon.
#COP26
(3/n)
Read 10 tweets
Oct 29, 2021
Remarkable framing shift ahead of #COP26

While "close to 1.5C" is politically more plausible than "limit to 1.5C", it's quite ambiguous, similarly to already established "well below 2C"

Is this the new language incorporating (initial) overshoot of 1.5C?

politico.eu/article/why-th…
Some background on #IPCC WG1 projections for threshold 1.5C crossing times under different scenarios, explained by @hausfath for @CarbonBrief
carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-…
"Constructive ambiguity" is a useful tool to reach agreement under #UNFCCC. But problematic that #ParisAgreement doesn't exclude or at least sets clear constraints for 1.5C overshoot. Creates way too much flexibility
See our 2017 @NatureGeosci piece
rdcu.be/cAqml #COP26
Read 4 tweets
Aug 9, 2021
IPCC #AR6 WGI report on the physical science basis of climate change is out today.
Find the the Summary for Policymakers and the Full Report here ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
[1/n]
Here's a short thread on Carbon Dioxide Removal, and how the #IPCC #AR6 WGI assessment (led by @KirstenZickfeld) relates to the WGIII report (due in March 2022)
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
[2/n]
First, some important context on remaining carbon budgets, pathways and net-zero emissions - since it doesn't make any sense to talk about Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) in isolation.
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
#IPCC #AR6
[3/n]
Read 15 tweets
Jul 14, 2021
Finally, here's @EU_Commission's #Fitfor55 package, to adjust EU #climate policy legislation to move from original 40% reduction target to 55% by 2030 (vs 1990)
Remember: these are only proposals, decision eventually to be made by @EUCouncil & @Europarl_EN ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/… Image
detailed #Fitfor55 proposals to be found at bottom of the page ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/…
The new Effort Sharing table
Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Finland move to -50% (2030 vs 2005)
#Fitfor55
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def… Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 15, 2021
The inconvenient truth about the #renewables boom in a world of growing energy consumption. Share of fossil fuels basically unchanged 2009-2019.
From @REN21's new 'Renewables 2021 Global Status Report'
ren21.net/reports/global…
The 11.2% #renewables share excludes so-called 'traditional biomass' (e.g., wood for cookstoves). Even then, share of #bioenergy among renewables still considerable
From @REN21's new 'Renewables 2021 Global Status Report'
ren21.net/reports/global…
You might have heard #renewables overtook fossil fuels in new infrastructure but this usually only refers to power sector & only to capacity not generation. Picture for whole energy system rather bleak
From @REN21's new Renewables 2021 Global Status Report
ren21.net/reports/global…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 27, 2021
A crucial aspect still unclear in Biden administration's #climate policy plan. Does "net-zero economy by 2050" cover all greenhouse gases (like in EU) or only CO2 (like US 2035 target for power sector)?
Net-zero GHG is much more ambitious than net-zero CO2
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Net zero GHG is much harder to achieve than net zero CO2. In global scenarios, it takes 10-20 years longer
swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R…
Main reason is that non-CO2 emissions like nitrous oxide (N20) and methane (CH4) are much harder or impossible to eliminate, so they need to be counterbalanced by CO2 removal, which takes longer.
Below global pathways. For countries, it depends on their specific emissions profile
Read 6 tweets

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