Thread by @SamuelJsdv

🚨🇺🇦🇷🇺 #UkraineRussiaWar could spillover into other areas: hot-spots are #Ganja #Zangezur #Lachin in #Azerbaijan & #Armenia 🇦🇿🇦🇲. Caucasus is critical for 🇪🇺🇹🇷 to circumvent Russia 🇷🇺 while still trading with Asia. However 🇷🇺has troops there since 2020 ceasefire.

Thread [9]🧵⬇️

#Russia🇷🇺 is run by an increasingly paranoid & violent leader. As Moscow is cut-off from the international system due to sanctions, it is rapidly losing its strategic role as a transit country between Asia & Europe in China’s🇨🇳multi-billion #BeltRoadInitiative (in-land) . . .

A million containers, previously rail-transported via Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 & Russia 🇷🇺, have to find alternative routes to reach🇪🇺markets. Hundreds of thousands of trucks are also deviating southwards (#MiddleCorridor) with increased traffic/queues reported on🇷🇺🇬🇪&🇷🇺🇦🇿&🇹🇷🇧🇬borders . . .

The #MiddleCorridor links Asia with 🇪🇺 EU’s 🛃 CustomsZone (which includes 🇹🇷) through #CentralAsia and #Azerbaijan or #Iran. This corridor is a competitive alternative to #Russia for both existing & newly 🇪🇺🇦🇿 signed gas supply. Same for bulk/commodity, cargo & ‘fast delivery’.

The technical-logistical challenges are complex. They range from road tariff quotas in transit countries and insurance levels to available infrastructure, corruption & slow border crossings to capacity levels, ferry pricing and other transit logistical issues . . .

The geopolitical challenges are also complex & the risk of re-escalation in S. Caucasus is growing. The inevitable increase in energy & logistical transport across #MiddleCorridor (due to #UkraineRussiaWar) puts 🇹🇷 in a growing position of strength & realignment with West. . .

This new reality puts 🇹🇷 and 🇷🇺 back on their inevitable historical-rival-trajectory, competing over strategic geography and trade and competing control over East-West and North-South corridors. Depending on how Iran positions itself on Russia, it also shifts 🇹🇷🇮🇷 relations . . .

Many unanswered questions remain on this subject: will 🇹🇷 leadership take more Turkish-state or “individualised” choices vis-a-vis Russia? Has ☢️🇷🇺Akkayu, 🇷🇺BlueStream, 🇷🇺TurkStream & S-400s made 🇹🇷 too dependent on 🇷🇺, or does Ankara still have sovereign/independent choice? . .

About #MiddleCorridor: #Russia’s inhumane actions in #Ukraine has pushed trade and energy southwards to the benefit of 🇪🇺🇹🇷. In turn, Russia puts pressure on its vulnerable neighbours, like #Georgia, #Azerbaijan & #Armenia. 🇷🇺 uses same neo-colonial attitude in #CentralAsia . . .

Russian troops are stationed inside disputed territories between Azerbaijan and Armenia as Trilateral “peacekeepers”. They just happen to be located within a very short radius of the narrowest part of the #MiddleCorrdor where energy and goods flow from Asia to Europe 🚨💣 [END]