Thread by @IranWonk

The lack of a viable #Israel|i strategy to the #Iran nuclear issue after nearly two decades of dealing with it is shocking.

#Bennet tells #Blinken Iran can be deterred from 90% enrichment via #Russia level sanctions.

There are some problem with this. 1/ axios.com/newsletters/ax…

While #Iran and #Russia sanctions regimes are complex and comparison is hard #Iran sanctions are arguably more comprehensive. Critically its energy exports are sanctioned whereas #Russia's are relatively unfettered. Iran is a template for Russia sanctions not other way around. 2/

Now sanctions can be ratcheted up against #Iran in case of escalations by it on the nuclear issue b/c my sense is #Biden enforcement has slackened and EU and China can join. But there are reasons to doubt this will be a sufficient deterrent against Iranian nuclear escalation. 3/

First #Bennet assumes #Iran can live with a no-#JCPOA status-quo if deterred. But at least two forces would push #Raisi government toward nuclear escalation: (a) Its FP orientation and coalition drive it to be more assertive/not back down and (b) economic deterioration. 4/

Furthermore the US, EU, and China may think twice before tightening sanctions b/c this would necessarily have to include cracking down on covert Iranian oil exports that would reduce international supplies and further raise prices at a time when they're already unstable. 5/

The Islamic Republic may ultimately decide not undertake 90 percent enrichment as an international bright red line.

But have we forgotten that there are many other ways it can escalate, signaling strengthening of its nuclear threshold status, without crossing this red line? 6/

It can further increase its uranium stockpile enriched at different levels (incl. 60%), conduct experiments relevant to nuclear weapons design, reduce or end #IAEA monitoring and safeguards activities in Iran, test missiles/SLVs more relevant to ICBM development, etc. 7/

Second as with the experience of #Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign #Iran|ian retaliation may spillover outside the nuclear arena - especially if #Israel, certain GCC states, etc. are seen as having played a role in the failure of #JCPOA reimplementation talks. 8/

Circling back to my first tweet a no-#JCPOA scenario is unlikely to lead toward a stable equilibrium but rather one which will accelerate a the onset of a nuclear and further regional security crises. 9/9

https://twitter.com/IranWonk/status/1509504813398204418?s=20&t=QiFh6Fbkq7yY_eHO-SlpLg