Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Mar 31 21 tweets 12 min read
NEW: Day 36 of #Russia invasion of #Ukraine-US seeing more reposition away from north, northwest of #Kyiv but "we haven't observed that much of a difference" per a sr US defense official

"Despite the rhetoric...we're still observing artillery fire & airstrikes in & around Kyiv"
#Mariupol-"The Ukrainians are fighting very very tough inside the city" per a senior US defense official
Total #Russia missile launches - +1,400 since start of the invasion, per a senior US defense official
"We have seen the #Russia|n continue to increase the number of sorties...up over 300" in past 24 hours, per a senior US defense official

Focus on #Kyiv, #Chernihiv & the #Donbas

"Kyiv is still very much under threat from airstrikes"
#Russia repositioning - "We've seen some minor movements in some other places around the northern part of the country" per a senior US defense official

Most of the limited movement is around #Kyiv, per official
#Ukraine "attacking some of the repositioning [#Russia|n] forces" per a senior US defense official

Calls it a continuation of Ukrainian efforts from when Russian forces first stopped advancing, dug in defensively
#Chernobyl - US concerned abt #Russia|n forces "lack of understanding or adherence to any sort of safety protocol" per a senior US defense official

Says US has seen some Russian repositioning away from Chernobyl
NEW: "We haven't seen any tangible outcomes based on our assessment that Mr. #Putin is being misinformed or is perhaps uniformed" per a senior US defense official

"Clearly this repositioning they're [#Russia] doing...indicates they know they have failed to take the capital city"
NEW: Dangers w/#Putin misinformed/out of the loop on #Russia's invasion...

"It's cause for concern if he's not being told the truth, if he's being misinformed" per a senior US defense official

"You don't know how he's going to react when he does get fully informed"
NEW: US cannot confirm #Russia|n troops shot down their own aircraft, per a senior US defense official

But "We have continued to see unit cohesion issues, command & control issues...anecdotal evidence of poor morale" official adds
#Russia repositioning - forces have largely moved from #Chernobyl, north & northwest of #Kyiv, per a senior US defense official

Says Russians have "very likely abandoned" #Hostomel airfield
NEW: #Russia's focus on eastern #Ukraine, #Donbas NOT yer paying off

"As for actual progress...they have been frustrated & not successful" per a senior US defense official, warning Russia could be preparing for "a longer, more prolonged conflict" in #Donbas
#Russia efforts in eastern #Ukraine, #Donbas-"Just because...they're going to put more energy there doesn't mean it's going to be easy for them" per a senior US defense official
Update - #Kherson still contested

"We know the #Russians are in the city but we aren't prepared to call it for one side or the other...it's still being fought over" per a senior US defense official
#Russia|n air sorties over #Ukraine - about 300 every 24 hours over the past couple of days, BUT was less than half that in the several days before that, per a senior US defense official
"We believe that they [#Russia] are reinforcing wha they have there" in the #Donbas, per a senior US defense official

"We know #Wagner is trying to reinforce their presence..." per official

BUT "We haven't seen in any significant number" of Russian troops moving in yet
#Putin's advisers - "The planning for this war was done w/a very small circle of ppl...Our assessment is that they have not been completely honest w/him abt how it's going" per a senior US defense official
"We have not seen a lot of naval activity in the #BalckSea or #SeaofAzov in the last few days" per a sr US defense official

#Russia has 3 ships in Sea of Azov, more ships -surface combatants, landing ships- in Black Sea, per official

US not seeing any recent resupply efforts
#Russia "has consistently launched missiles from sea...its been sporadic at times" per a senior US defense official
NO change-no cause for alarm w/#Russia's nuclear posture - "No indications at this time that they're preparing to use those kinds of weapons" per a senior US defense official
UPDATE: all security assistance from the US $350 million aid package to #Ukraine delivered w/in 3 weeks - "unprecedented", per a senior US defense official

4-5 shipments from the newer $800 million package already delivered w/rest set to arrive "by the middle of April"

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More from @jseldin

Apr 1
NEW: US "not in a position to comment on the #Kremlin's statements" per @PressSec, when asked abt #Russia|n claims that #Ukraine struck a Russian oil depot & statement that such actions make negotiations more difficult
"I would also note that this is a war that Pres. #Putin started, a brutal war w/#Russia's forces continuing to bombard cities across #Ukraine & commit terrible acts of violence" per @PressSec "There is 1 aggressor here-that is Pres. Putin & the Russian military at his direction"
Possible future #Ukraine attacks on #Russia|n soil - "I'm not going to get into a future hypothetical" per @PressSec, noting Ukraine has not confirmed the attack on the oil depot
Read 4 tweets
Apr 1
Happening now: @CENTCOM Change of Command Ceremony

Gen. Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie handing over command to Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla Image
#Ukraine "on everyone's mind" per @SecDef Lloyd Austin at @CENTCOM Change of Command ceremony

"#Putin’s invasion of his sovereign neighbor is unprovoked & unjust. And the Ukrainians are fighting bravely to defend their lives, their democracy, & their freedom" Image
"#Russia’s invasion isn’t just a mortal threat to #Ukraine. It’s a challenge to the rules-based international system" per @SecDef "We’ve rushed them security assistance. We’ve rallied our @NATO allies. & we’ve reinforced @NATO’s Eastern Flank w/more combat power..."
Read 7 tweets
Apr 1
US still worried abt #Russia|n disinfo campaigns on #bioweapons

"The department remains very concerned" @DeptofDefense Asst Sec Deborah Rosenblum tells lawmakers

Warns #Moscow may still use public health labs in #Ukraine as part of a #falseflag op
"I can say to you unequivocally there are no offensive biologic weapons in the #Ukraine laboratories that the #UnitedStates has been involved with" per @DeptofDefense Asst Sec Rosenblum
"The crisis in #Ukraine & the blatant threats really by #Russia-potential use of biological & chemical weapons-is opening everyone's eyes to how much of a problem this is" per @DeptofDefense Ast Sec for Space Policy John Plumb
Read 5 tweets
Mar 31
Happening now: @PentagonPresSec briefs reporters at the Pentagon Image
#Russia repositioning from around #Kyiv-"We continue to see indications that they are moving a small number..." per @PentagonPresSec "It has not been wholesale by any means"

"Not exactly clear...where they are going to go, for how long, for what purpose" he says
US believes small number of #Russia|n troops being repositioned from around #Kyiv likely will be sent to #Belarus to resupply & refit before being sent elsewhere in #Ukraine, per @PentagonPresSec

Same w/Russian troops being repositioned from #Chernobyl, he says
Read 15 tweets
Mar 30
NEW: #Russia has repositioned a small number of troops arrayed vs #Kyiv over last 24 hours - some heading to #Belarus, per @PentagonPresSec

"None of them have repositioned to their home garrison" he adds
.@DeptofDefense believes #Russia likely to refit the moved troops and send them elsewhere in #Ukraine

Repositioning affects less than 20% of the troops arrayed vs #Kyiv - "They're leaving Kyiv & heading more to the north...away from the city" per @PentagonPresSec
NEW: "We would concur w/the conclusion that Mr. Putin has not been fully informed by his Ministry of Defense at every turn" per @PentagonPresSec
Read 32 tweets
Mar 30
Happening now - @US_EUCOM @SHAPE_NATO Commander Gen Tod Wolters testifies before the House Armed Services Committee

Ranking member @RepMikeRogersAL: "The #Russia|n offensive [in #Ukraine] appears to be stalled. If Russian casualties don't exceed 10,000, they soon will" Image
"The global response to #Russia's aggression has been remarkable..." per @DeptofDefense Asst Sec for Int'l Security Affairs Celeste Wallander

"Simply out, Russia's attempts to divide the #UnitedStates from its allies & partners have failed miserably" Image
HASC Chair @RepAdamSmith asks how shud US balance risk between supply #Ukraine w/weapons & not further provoking #Russia

@US_EUCOM's Gen Wolters: "My 1st answer is constantly. The conditions change second by second, day by day, week by week" Image
Read 12 tweets

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