Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Apr 1 7 tweets 2 min read
سلسلة تغريدات تتعلق بوقف أوبك الاعتماد على بيانات وكالة الطاقة الدولية، وهي من مقال نشر في 29 سبتمبر، 2009، في جريدة الاقتصادية السعودية:
1- ماحصل أمس كان يجب أن يحصل منذ سنوات طويلة.. لأن بيانات وتوقعات الوكالة كانت خاطئة، مجيّرة، وعلميا غير مقبولة.
#النفط #أوبك
2- نجح الغرب في منهجة بعض الكتابات حتى اكتسبت الصفة الأكاديمية والعلمية, رغم أنها كتابات تفتقر إلى أصول البحث العلمي. لقد استطاع الغرب أكدمة العداء للعالم العربي من خلال هذه الكتابات، لدرجة أن رسائل الدكتوراة التي يكتبها الطلاب العرب في الجامعات الغربية أصبحت ''من فمك أدينك''!
3- أما مؤتمرات النفط الخليجية التي عقدت في الأعوام الماضية في العواصم الخليجية فقد أصبحت مجالاً للتندر لأنها تعقد في عقر دار الدول النفطية وتتبنى آراء وكالة الطاقة الدولية والدول الغربية وأغلب متحدثيها من مؤصلي الفكر الغربي المعادي للعرب!
4- لذلك فإن عملية تكوين فكر عربي نفطي ستكون صعبة الحمل, صعبة المخاض, صعبة الولادة, وصعبة النشأة, خاصة أنه من الصعب تكوين هذا الفكر بشكل مستقل بحيث لا يكون كردة فعل للفكر الغربي. ولكن لا بد من تكوين هذا الفكر مهما كانت الصعوبات، (يتبع)
5- لأنه لا يمكن على الإطلاق إجراء حوار بين المثقفين العرب والمثقفين الغربيين دون التعرض لموضوع النفط: فالعرب يملكون أغلب احتياطيات النفط في العالم, ووفقاً للغرب فإن أموال النفط هي التي تفرخ الإرهاب, وهي التي تمول المساجد في أماكن مختلفة من العالم. (يتبع)
6- كما يعتقد الغربيون أن العرب سببوا كارثة اقتصادية للعالم الغربي في السبعينيات بسبب المقاطعة النفطية العربية للولايات المتحدة وهولندا. ولا يمكن عزل النفط عن الصراع العربي – الإسرائيلي، لأن أموال النفط هي التي تمول الانتفاضة والحركات الفلسطينية بطريقة أو بأخرى.
7- نحن بحاجة إلى فكر عربي نفطي يتميز بالإنسانية والموضوعية والعدالة والعالمية بعيداً عن ردة الفعل والعواطف والعنصرية والانتهازية. إن أخطر أمر يواجه تكوين هذا الفكر هو أن يتكون كردة فعل للفكر الغربي. يجب أن يتكون ذاتياً بناء على تراثنا العربي الإسلامي بمفاهيمه الإنسانية العالمية

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More from @anasalhajji

Feb 25
Thread on the effects of the #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine on global energy markets
1- Will oil prices continue to rise? Will they remain high? Will they decline? The answer depends on the types of additional sanctions that might be imposed in the coming g days by the US & EU. Image
2- This raises another question: what can the Biden's & EU governments do? The answer consists of two parts. The first relates to the ineffectiveness of sanctions. The second relates to the dependence of the US & Europe on Russian energy sources & other materials such as pig iron
3- The main objective of economic sanctions is to force the opponent to change his/her position on something. The academic literature shows that sanctions in the last 120, although painful, failed to achieve their “declared” goals. #OOTT #Russia
Read 22 tweets
Feb 7
Thread
1
- US imposed sanctions on Iran & Venezuela
- Iran is sending diluent & gasoline to Venezuela
- Venezuela's crude exports increased
- The Biden Administration is turning the blind eye to keep Iran at the table, so it has to turn the blind eye to Venezuela's exports #OOTT
2- But once sanctions are lifted, why would Iran send its condensates to Venezuela when it can make more money in Asia? So... will the increase in Iranian oil exports be just a replacement for Venezuelan oil exports? Therefore, no impact on the market?
#Oil #OOTT
3- In light of the possible Russian invasion of #Ukraine, the Biden administration needs both Iran & Venezuelan oil. Will it lift the embargo on Venezuela? What is the pretext? Chevron's proposal to get oil for the debt is not made in isolation. It could be coordinated. #Iran
Read 5 tweets
Jan 31
Thread on #OPEC meeting #OOTT
1- This forthcoming OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday is going to be held under the biggest political crisis since OPEC+ has been initiated.
The optimal outcome is a short meeting where they stick to the plan unless Russia wants to increase production.
2- If it was not for the Russian-Ukrain issue, one would argue for an increase in the group's ceiling, which ultimately means higher production by those who can increase production. In a sense, it legitimizes these increases.
But that comes with a risk of angering some members
3- The increase can be justified by curbing a sharp rise in oil prices. Saudis can also justify adding the voluntary cuts that they made in the past. After all, the planned increases were eliminated or reduced in the past, now they can use the same logic, but in reverse. #OOTT
Read 8 tweets
Jan 31
Short thread:
Gien the comments I received on this post from those who are religiously bullish, it is clear that they do not know ABCs of Saudi spare capacity. So here we go:
1- Spare capacity is intended only for emergencies. The short period of high production is by DESIGN.
2- The short periods of high production were a function of oil demand. Has nothing to do with the inability to sustain production. Once demand declined, there was no reason to continue producing at a high level.
Maintaining spare capacity is what gives KSA power in the market.
3- Where is spare capacity located? ALL over. They constantly rotate production. Doubting Saudi spare capacity by asking which fields have the spare capacity shows the ignorance of the person making the challenge. Do not be one!
#OOTT #oil
Read 4 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
Thread on the most important events in the oil market in 2021:
1- What constitutes an important event?
An event that is NOT common, different from the past, & sometimes different from the prevailing conventional wisdom that has ramifications on several fronts & for years to come
2- That immediately excludes many of the expected trends: increasing prices, production, demand, rigs, revenues, profits, stock prices, etc. It also excludes The Biden Administration's requests for OPEC to increase production and the use of the SPR.
#Oil #OOTT #OPEC
3- The most important event in 2021 with a significant impact on oil market balances in 2021 & beyond is the change in #oil market structure & the role of OPEC+ leaders in global energy markets & climate negotiations. That changed the economics and the politics of the oil market.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 14, 2021
Thread: General comments & forecasts for the global oil market in 2022. Constructive comments are welcome. If comments don't fit your books, just ignore them.

1-13 The oil market will be tighter than forecasts, especially relative to OPEC’s forecast. No major inventory build.
2- The biggest surprise might come from increased demand for oil in the oil-producing countries themselves. That is a double-edged sword; BULLISH.

On the other side, if #COVID19 & its varients come back with vengeance: lockdowns, inventory build, etc.. OPEC+ is expected to react
3- Average oil prices for 2022 will be higher than that of 2021, but prices will be range-bound, even when China refills its SPR.

No $100 oil under normal circumstances. Possible under certain conditions. #Oil #OPEC #OOTT #China
Read 14 tweets

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