Thread by @ZimermanErik

#Mariupol has fallen. There remain pockets of resistance. Thermal satellite data tells the story. Fading dots are days old hot spots, bright ones are from the last 24 hours. As we had expected, the fighting moved to the that hotel area in southern edge of the west bank. The last

intense shelling there was on the 30th. It seems to have been clear by the next day or two. April 1st saw a complete lull in artillery fire as forces consolidated the linkup, cleared out taken areas, and repositioned to attack remaining Ukr held pockets. We see no shelling in

#Azovstal industrial for many days now. It is likely clear from any active resistance positions, and the main roads have been in RU hands (including for obs. to west bank positions). We saw infantry forces fight & take the outskirts. However, we are likely to see evidence of

#Russian, #DPR and #Chechen forces (esp. the latter, they like to film themselves!) in #Azovstal proper, as they clear it thoroughly, seizing HQs, fortified positions & perhaps leadership prisoners along the way. We may see some interesting things found in the industrial complex.

Yesterday we saw artillery data move to near the port in the southern pocket, & two residential areas in the northern pocket, outside the large industrial area, including 1 along a main road, It is possible the northern group represent artillery positions shelling the southern

group because they match in number/time & no artillery can be seen outside the city for this date as with other dates. This would indicate #Russia already moved most of its heavy artillery used in the battle for the city elsewhere, and the last shelling is being done with smaller

pieces with shorter ranges. The thermal data near the port in the south has been inching eastward daily, so we may expect an assault on the port itself soon. Shelling has finally ceased along Tahanrozka road (E58), so that the large #Livoberezhnyi district is finally cleared &

in RU / #DPR hands. It is a large and dense district that required many days of clearing operations, after the main strategic areas & roads had been taken. The #Ukrainian hold on the city is finally broken after a very brave resistance. There remains only isolated pockets without

the possibility of victory. There remains some Ukr forces in the northern industrial sector & its adjacent residential areas (now being shelled), some HQ elements likely simply hiding in #Azovstal, and some additional forces around the port area in the south. Russia now controls

main roads through #Mariupol so the logistics connection exists. The airport is in RU hands as well, and what remains is the port & the last areas which will allow a rail link through the city, critical for supplying forces in the front. #Zelensky's govt made it very difficult

for the defenders to surrender (see my earlier post on that), even when the battle had been decided, but amazingly did send helicopters on near suicidal missions to get the #Azov leadership out of the city. Three of those were shot down, two fully loaded & on the way out.

#Azov's deputy commanders was among the dead found in one crash site (2nd chopper crashed in the sea). Very graphic images of this crash site and his body have circulated, along with rumors that french & foreign intel agents were also among those Kiev ordered evacuated. A lower

ranking #Azov commander posted a video message claiming all of that to be Russian propaganda. The #Azov leaders would never abandon their men he claimed. For their leaders to refuse the men the option to surrender, to order a fight to the death, to fail to come to their aid, and

then to flee in secret is not the most honorable of behavior, & one can understand why they refuse to believe it (or wish their men to refuse to believe it). But I am not surprised. Soon we will see who if any among them stayed with their men and chose to go down with their ship.