Dave Keating Profile picture
Apr 10 13 tweets 9 min read
BREAKING: #Macron beats #LePen in French #presidentielles2022 first round election.

A larger spread than 2017. Image
These are exit polls so the actual result we'll know in time, but we know that for sure it will be Macron and Le Pen in the 2nd round.

It's also the worst performance ever for a Socialist Party candidate, according to the exit polls. Image
The full results from the 8pm projection, which has historically proven to end up being accurate.

It is the worst result in history for both the 'big tent' mainsteam parties - the Socialists and the Gaulists.

It is (I think?) the highest vote in history for the far-left. Image
Valérie Pécresse has just conceded defeat - a catastrophic result for the center-right party of Charles de Gaul.

She endorses Emmanuel #Macron, to protect France from #LePen "and the chaos that would follow".

Centre-left's Hidalgo also endorsed Macron. Image
Green Party candidate @yjadot conceding.

"I call on Green-minded voters to block the far right by voting for @EmmanuelMacron on 24 April. Nobody should underplay the fundamental threat that is the far right to democracy, social peace, the planet and the values of our republic" Image
Marine #LePen says #Macron "has fought against individual nations and individual peoples in Europe".

"On the 24th of April, people will vote for our society and civilization," she says. "It will be one where people defend the French language, our civilization, our way of living" Image
Far-left #Melenchon decries system that makes people "choose between lesser of two evils" but says "you should not vote for Mrs Le Pen"

"I know your anger, but don't give into it. Dont let anger make you do things that would be irreparable"

"Le Pen should not get a single vote" Image
Five years ago #Melenchon did not endorse Macron or clearly instruct people to not vote for Le Pen. He acknowledged that, and said he will be very clear this time.

He therefor said *four times* that #LePen should not get a single vote from his France Unbowed voters.
The only endorsement #LePen is getting tonight is from her far-right rival Eric #Zemmour, whose outrageous comments during the campaign made her look moderate by comparison

But he has a dig for LePen: "I never lied to get ahead in the polls, I never went against my own thoughts" Image
#Macron speaking to his supporters now, many of whom are waiving 🇪🇺EU flags. He looks ahead to 2nd round.

"Some may vote for me to block off the far right, and I am fully aware that that does not mean they support my project, and I respect that." Image
#Macron says he'll work to convince those people who abstained or voted for extremes because they are frustrated about persistent inequalities that his programme has a better future for them than the far right.

He says this vote will be critical for the future of 🇫🇷&🇪🇺. Image
"I do not want France to pull out of the EU and have only international xenophobes and nationalists as allies," #Macron says.

(#LePen stopped calling for France to leave the EU after #Brexit. No candidate was calling for that in this election)
"I'm counting on you, nothing is certain" #Macron tells his supporters in conclusion.

The French president's biggest enemy he must combat over the next two weeks is apathy.

He cannot afford having anyone think his election is a fait accompli. If they do, they could stay home. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dave Keating

Dave Keating Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DaveKeating

Apr 13
🇸🇪#Sweden and 🇫🇮#Finland's prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join #NATO.

🇫🇮 expected to move first. PM Marin says she won't give a timetable but "it will happen quite fast—within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion" Image
🇫🇮&🇸🇪"will deliver decisions independently" says Marin. Assumption has always been 🇸🇪 can't join unless 🇫🇮 does 1st.

"Of course...I would prefer that we would make the similar kinds of choices for the whole region—but it's up to Sweden to decide for yourself" Image
Sweden's SvD reports that the ruling Social Democrats have already decided to apply for NATO membership (but must wait for Finland to decide to do so first), and will submit the application at the Madrid summit at end of June.
svd.se/a/Wj5gW2/uppgi…
Read 8 tweets
Apr 8
It’s really feeling like the 🇩🇪🇦🇹 position against an 🇪🇺ban on #RussianOil is no longer tenable, and they know it.

Feeling in Brussels right now is: these two demanded drastic sacrifice in 🇵🇹🇮🇪🇬🇷🇪🇸 after mistakes were made there. 🇩🇪🇦🇹 must make sacrifices now for greater good.
The counter-argument is that the negative economic effects of an oil embargo wouldn’t just effect 🇩🇪🇦🇹, they would effect all of 🇪🇺 by destabilising the economy and causing energy prices to surge.

But you can understand why 🇵🇹🇮🇪🇬🇷🇪🇸 are sceptical of such contagion arguments.
Even if 🇩🇪🇦🇹 agree a #RussianOil ban (which would necessarily need to have a long phase-in) the remaining question is 🇭🇺.

#Orban still says he’ll veto any ban on 🇷🇺 oil or gas. Would he risk destroying his alliance with 🇵🇱 for that? Would 🇩🇪🇦🇹 be happy to hide behind his veto?
Read 5 tweets
Apr 1
Speaking after 🇪🇺🇨🇳#EUChinaSummit, @EUCOpresident Michel says this was "not business as usual"

"It was a wartime summit. We are living through the gravest security crisis in Europe since World War 2. Putin's war in Ukraine continues to kill women and children and destroy cities"
"We focused on what can be done to end this war as soon as possible" he says.

"The EU and China agreed that this war is threatening global security and the world economy. This global instability is not in China's interest and not in the EU's interest. We share a responsibility."
"We called on #China to help end the war in #Ukraine," says 🇪🇺 @EUCOpresident.

"China cannot turn a blind eye to Russia's violation of international law. These principles are enshrined in the UN charter and are principles sacred to China."
Read 7 tweets
Apr 1
Today will see the 1st 🇪🇺🇨🇳 #EUChinaSummit in 2 years. It was planned before 🇷🇺Putin's invasion of 🇺🇦, but the topic will obviously dominate today's talks.

The big question: can 🇪🇺 use its economic leverage to stop 🇨🇳 aiding 🇷🇺, and should Europe use a carrot or stick approach?
Ahead of the summit, a senior EU official noted 🇨🇳 has over past 3 decades economically benefitted from the system of international rules that's now under threat from #Putin, therefor should want to side with 🇪🇺🇺🇸.

But 🇨🇳's interests now may be more geopolitical than economic.
"Do you [🇨🇳] want to endanger the stability and growth prospects of the global economy and your own country?” asked the EU official.

The stick approach: If 🇨🇳 supplies 🇷🇺 for #UkraineWar or helps it evade sanctions, may get less economic access to West (or face sanctions itself)
Read 6 tweets
Mar 25
Presidents @JoeBiden & @VonDerLeyen have just announced a deal that will see 🇺🇸 deliver an additional 15 billion cubic metres of liquified natural gas (#LNG) this year to 🇪🇺.

It's designed to give #EUCO leaders the confidence today to ban Russian energy imports.
But #Biden acknowledges the problem: Europe has few #LNG port facilities to receive the liquified gas, and they're already operating at capacity. He says US will help build new LNG infrastructure.

Longer term, 🇺🇸 will deliver at least 50bn cm per year to 🇪🇺 from now to 2030.
The amount of extra 🇺🇸#LNG deliveries by ship this year promised by #Biden amounts to 10% of the 155 bcm of gas 🇪🇺 imports from Russia each year via pipeline.

EU will "build more infrastructure to receive LNG and to take steps to increase the efficiency of gas" Biden says.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 25
#EUCO will today see Latin-Germanic clash on energy prices. It's very technical but here's an explainer I wrote for @EnergyMonitorAI.

Electricity prices are tied to gas, and they're going through the roof. 🇪🇸Sanchez wants to change that. 🇩🇪🇳🇱 say no.
energymonitor.ai/sectors/power/…
The disagreement on energy prices could blow up #EUCO today. 🇪🇸Sanchez is threatening to veto #EUCO conclusions if there's no price changes.

Team Sanchez (🇮🇹🇵🇹🇬🇷🇧🇪) say urgent relief is needed.

🇩🇪🇳🇱 say intervention is not a silver bullet & caps risk suppliers ending contracts
🇩🇪🇳🇱 also point out market intervention setting energy prices is a double-edged sword.

You could set a price that's lower than market rate now, only to see the market rate fall in a few months and end up with Europeans paying more than the market rate. Long-term consequences.
Read 28 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(