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GAURAV C SAWANT Profile picture
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Apr 17 • 7 tweets • 8 min read
After close to 2 months in #Ukraine signing off. No end in sight to the #Russia Ukraine War. A beautiful country & lovely hard working people stare at an uncertain future. Lives & homes shattered, a country devastated. Russia will keep trying to inch forward from Donbas to Dnipro ImageImageImageImage
17 Feb we landed at #boryspil Airport before the war started on Feb 24. #Ukraine was preparing well for defence of #Kyiv. Fought hard in #Mariopul & #Kharkiv. But lacks effective air power. Air defence resources are not infinite. Longer conflict lasts more Ukraine stands to lose.
The sinking of #Moskva is the biggest blow to #Russian prestige after failing to take #Kyiv. Both defence of Kyiv & sinking of Moskva show Ukraine's resolve & Russia's shortcomings in coordinated multi dimensions military operations.Major failure both of intelligence & Operations
But #Russia has more weapons to keep #Ukraine on edge. They will keep bombing cities across Ukraine & try to advance from #Donbas to #Dnipro. Ukraine may lose access to sea & see major conflict around its main industrial belt from Mariopul to the area around Dnipro- Zaporizhzhia
UCAVs & ATGMs (along with real time US intelligence sharing) gave #Ukraine an edge in tactical battles but #Russia is systematically taking out #Ukraine's military industrial complex & ability to sustain conflict. Russian strategy appears to be long term & not just aerial attacks ImageImage
#Russia failed to assess #Ukraine's ability & preparedness to defend itself. It's heliborne Ops or launching special forces to take over #Hostomel Air base were met with stiff resistance & repeated counter attacks. Major missile, rocket, arty & armoured battles fought on ground. ImageImageImageImage
How many S 300 systems will Slovakia give Ukraine & how many T 72s will the Czech Republic send? And MiG 29s? Same goes for helicopters & 155 mm howitzer & MLRSs & anti ship missiles. Any escalation will be catastrophic in case the apprehension of 'tac nuke strike' is not a bogey

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More from @gauravcsawant

GAURAV C SAWANT Profile picture
Feb 10
Rules framed in 2004. Created issue only in 31 Dec 2021: Yashpal, school management at #Udupi. No #Hijab worn in classrooms. In earlier school also the girls were not wearing #Hijab. Uniform Rules were in place. PTA, management, Principal together in forming rules. @IndiaToday
Dec 31 girls came wearing #Hijab. Before that no Hijab worn. We have pictures. No #Hijab worn in class. Issue created by vested interests. Some started wearing Hijab & became like activists. 965 students. 90 Muslims. Only 6 Muslim students created issues: Yashpal to @nabilajamal
Because of 6 students, 959 students are facing a problem. School has rules. We have told the 6 protesting students there will be no compromise on rules in Government rules in a Government school: Yaspal. #Udupi is an education hub. #NoHijabRule stays. They can go to any school.
Read 5 tweets
GAURAV C SAWANT Profile picture
Jan 10
Sincerely hope & pray #SPG Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) are not discussed & debated in public or put in public domain. There will be discussions in the Supreme Court but SOPs will be studied very closely by India's enemies to exploit. This is a landmine. Tread cautiously!
Many years ago #Pakistan asked #India for help to strengthen security of their prime minister. #Pak wanted to study/learn about #SPG. India had politely declined. #Pak would learnt our SOPs & exploited weaknesses.But now with #Punjab breach in court, alarm bells should ring again
Internal politics should not destroy the strong edifice on which national security structure is built.We have burnt our fingers in the past with intelligence operations debated in open court. Am confident #SupremeCourt will ensure secret SOPs are not shared in public. #IndiaFirst
Read 7 tweets
GAURAV C SAWANT Profile picture
Jan 7
The @PMOIndia of a major power stuck on a flyover for close to 20 minutes. The head of Govt of India stranded in our own country.
Those responsible for this should hang their heads in shame. They have let #India down.
You may or may not have voted for @narendramodi, he is our PM
This is collapse of law & order if a road cannot even be sanitized for the @PMOIndia in our own country in a sensitive border state.
This is not about insulting *Punjabiyat* or people of a state. Must probe where the system failed that Prime Minister's security was `compromised'
India is a democracy. Not a mobocracy & certainly not anarchy. In the name of protests we have seen military convoys heading to our sensitive & live borders being stopped. In the name of protests the @PMOIndia cavalcade has been stranded. Protests cannot & should not derail India
Read 4 tweets
GAURAV C SAWANT Profile picture
Jan 6
Govt sources: Jan 1 & 2 there was a ASL (security liasion) discussed `in detail' road journey from Bathinda to Ferozpur. Road survey & Vulnerable pints to be secured discussed. Even sabotage possibility & strong deployment discussed. contingency reheaesal for road journey on 4th
SPG discussed with DGP road journey. Only after getting clearance, @PMOIndia's cavalcade moved. The convoy was piloted by SSP but PM's motorcade not informed about blockade by protesters (For close to 20 minutes PM of India was stranded on a flyover. Was this not serious breach?)
Govt sources: SPG Blue Book very clearly demarcates responsibilities. SPG protects the @PMOIndia and it is the responsibility of the State administration & police to secure the venue, road, helipad & other VA/VPs. Responsibility of the DGP to implement SPG rules for security.
Read 4 tweets
GAURAV C SAWANT Profile picture
Jan 6
1.When @PMOIndia landed in #Punjab it was raining.
2.He could not take helicopter due to inclement weather.
3.Waited 20 minutes for weather to clear up.
4.Decision taken to take road route to Martyrs memorial.
5.Punjab police DGP gave 'all clear' for road route.
6.Road sanitized?
7.Who informed farm union leaders about @PMOIndia taking road route?
8. Once/if sanitized why were vehicles permitted on PM's route?
9. @PMOIndia's security compromised by permitting/not stopping protesters on PM's route?
10. Is this how casual one can be with the security of PM?
11. Breach in @PMOIndia security is far too serious an issue in a country where a sitting & former prime Minister have been assassinated by terrorists.
12. Standard Operating Procedures on dealing with @PMOIndia security breach (incl use of necessary force) were not followed?
Read 4 tweets
GAURAV C SAWANT Profile picture
Jan 5
Baseless charges are being leveled, says @rssurjewala. 10,000 police personnel had been deployed for @PMOIndia rally. Entire route had Punjab & Haryana police deployed. PM was to travel by helicopter. Not road route. Last minute plan to go by road to Hussainiwala & rally Bhatinda
Congress says last minute decision to travel by road. Police could not say no to @PMOIndia & hurried arrangements made. Some farmers decided to protest on the road to press for their demands. Should police have shot those farmers who blocked the PM's route? No crowd for PM rally.
Punjab CM @CHARANJITCHANNI regrets the incident. Says he was to receive & accompany @PMOIndia but could not as officials close to him had tested #Covid_19 positive. Fin Min Manpreet Badal welcomed PM @narendramodi at Bathinda. Till 3 am we removed agitators from the road. IB knew
Read 5 tweets

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