Germany’s response to #Russia’s assault on #Ukraine is an abject disappointment.
Why be so hard on #Germany?
Because:
- Ukraine needs & deserves much better
- We all need a Germany that does much better
(including Germans). A 🧵
#Germany has not unequivocally endorsed #Ukraine's #EU candidacy bid;
- was slow to provide weapons of any kind;
- is dragging its feet over providing #heavyweapons;
- delayed the #EU ban on🇷🇺coal, &
- STILL buys the most🇷🇺gas, giving billions of Euros to #Putin.
This is particularly hard to bear as #Germany COULD do so much more.
A fully engaged Germany COULD make such a difference - as when it boldly accepted millions of refugees - in the 1990s and in 2015.
It believed in its best sides & promised "#wirschaffendas" "we can manage it"
Or when it threw its weight behind issuing and underwriting collective EU debt to get Europe's #COVID recovery plan going.
#Germany is the world's 4th biggest economy, Europe's economic powerhouse and a massive arms producer and exporter - including very powerful and effective #heavyweapons dw.com/en/german-arms…
#Germany is rich & has real capability to help #Ukraine far more than it is doing now.
Some of its politicians even mislead Germans about what their allies are doing -claiming other #NATO states aren't giving heavy weapons to 🇺🇦 when in fact they are. politico.eu/article/berlin…
#Germany's government is not only failing #Ukraine which fights for all our security & for our values against #Putin's authoritarian regime but its also destroying 🇩🇪's own credibility.
This is a real shame as, since WW2, Germans have worked so hard to rebuild their reputation
From being sinners in the eyes of the world,🇩🇪strove to face its past crimes & learn lessons from them. In the process, #Germany became a genuine moral power - & able to exert real influence in the world because of it, as well as becoming widely admired. theguardian.com/world/2020/jul…
There were missteps of course, not least in dealing with 🇬🇷🇵🇹🇮🇪🇮🇹🇪🇸 in Europe's financial crisis - and in building up the corrupt relations with #Russia (& dependency on its #oil & #gas) that are now so problematic. BUT
#Germany did underpin the deepening & widening of the #EU and, for many people came to symbolise a decent European democracy that faced its problematic past while developing an economically dynamic, tolerant and thriving liberal multicultural society.
To build all that, from the ruins of its defeat in WW2 was immensely impressive - but #Germany also benefited from a lot of help from its friends and allies ... the kind of help it needs to repay now
By the time of the fall of the #Berlin Wall - and in the way it handled that #Germany came to symbolise the hope of a better world that could be built from the trauma of the past.
Now, with every excuse made to not help #Ukraine (we can't; we don't have anything; we're scared of escalation; we don't want to be a target; we wan't peace; the Ukrainian ambassador is rude) #Germany's credibility as an international actor & as a #NATO ally is crumbling.
This does an incredible disservice to brave Ukrainians who wait & die while #Germany debates.
- It weakens the fight for democracy & against authoritarianism.
-It also betrays the work of those Germans who worked so hard to restore their country's reputation & influence.
#Germany's reputation and, consequently its effectiveness in international affairs - are in free fall.
We need a more credible, moral & committed 🇩🇪 for Europe's security & future.
Ukraine needs much more 🇩🇪 support right now.
We would all benefit from this - including🇩🇪/ end
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To Avoid Another Munich, Europe Must Act to Secure Ukraine
To counter the fatalism in Western Europe, which is in danger of becoming disastrously self-fulfilling, 100+ politicians, experts, military & intelligence professionals argue that
a coalition of willing Europeans must step up for Ukraine’s victory & our common security, regardless of the outcome of the US Election, because:
1️⃣ Russia is not destined to prevail. Russia cannot sustain its war effort at current levels beyond 2025 when it will exhaust key stocks. It is losing heavy cannon barrels and armoured vehicles at a rate far higher than it can replace.
2️⃣ There is no credible plan for European security after any ‘ceasefire’. The Putin regime cannot be trusted to keep a deal. A ceasefire would let Russia reconstitute its forces, putting us at a disadvantage.
3️⃣ Failing to win endangers all European allies. A ‘Minsk III’ (or Munich II) agreement would signal weakness and invite coercion upon us.
4️⃣ A route to Ukrainian victory still exists. Using new military technology we can quickly leverage Europe’s industrial capacity to build the capabilities to disable Russia’s war machine.
5️⃣ Those who want to act, can. A coalition of willing powers could supply Ukraine with what it needs to win and provide Kyiv with real security guarantees. Where they change facts and policy on the ground, others will follow.
➡️In this appeal we urge willing European capitals to urgently arm themselves with a real contingency plan for any outcome of the US election by collectively enhancing financial and military support to Ukraine, focused on a clear theory of victory.
@james_rogers @LarryPfeifferDC @ThreshedThought @StephenGethins @DerkBoswijk @AdamKinzinger @robinwagener @StanKutcher @ratnaomi @DonnaDasko @SlawomirDebski And was signed by German MPs including
It’s here!
🔥Long awaited new piece on #NeoIdealism is OUT NOW!🔥
➡️ Develops Neo-Idealism as Grand Strategy for the Free World 🌍
I Lay out 8 pillars that we need if we are to build a Neo-Idealist approach in international (& domestic) politics!
👇🧵 macdonaldlaurier.ca/wp-content/upl…
Why do we need a grand strategy?
Because we, the world’s free societies, face multiple tests of our value & prowess - & severe & urgent threats to our security, prosperity & freedom. Threats to our democratic way of life
- but we’ve not yet got our collective act together. 🧵
The challenges we face span geopolitics, geoeconomics, climate change, technological transformation & cut across foreign & domestic policy.
We must defend our democracies against external threats
- but also renew them to defeat internal anti-democratic & illiberal forces.🧵
#Germany is both #Ukraine’s biggest European supporter in absolute financial terms
- AND rightly seen as problem by allies (As well as by many Germans)
Here’s why.🧵
(& no, it’s not just Scholz, the SPD & #Taurus)
There's a lot of confusion & conflicting figures flying around, so what support has 🇩🇪 provided to 🇺🇦 in financial terms?
We use🇩🇪Govt figures (because they're unlikely to be underestimates) but pls correct if needed.
We also separate military from other aid
(to 24/02/24).🧵
German military aid to Ukraine
- €12.082bn in military aid DELIVERED
(6.6bn buying equipment for Ukraine
5bn in 2023, 1.6bn in 2022
5.2bn value kit donated from stocks, 282m training UA soldiers)
(16bn more promised for future but we don't include that as its not there yet) 🧵
The fight back has begun.
Everyone has rightly talked about grim mood at #MSC2024
BUT there were major signs that true leaders across Europe have had enough of the gap between words & action
& of key Allie’s failing to stand up for our common interests & for our security. 1/
Danish PM Mette Fredriksen pledged ALL of her country’s artillery to Ukraine - and called out allies who claim they have nothing left to give - saying that they manifestly do. And when it comes to giving Ukraine what it needs to win they should Just Do It. news.yahoo.com/pm-says-denmar…
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius emphasised that Ukraine must win & be supported to do so (Olaf Scholz hasn’t said Ukraine should win & acts accordingly) -
& BP argues that as a defender of the free world Germany would have to spend beyond 2%
It seems
the🚦coalition is turning inward & de-prioritising key issues, including Ukraine
There's a mixture of complacency (about Germany's Zeitenwende) & delusion (about 🇩🇪 ability to ignore geopol & do its own thing)
V. Dangerous.
🧵
BLUF: Letting Scholz focus on uncontroversial topics like UA reconstruction (not victory) puts the cart before the horse, distracts from the need to create (& ensure) a stable security order, a stable peace in Europe.
This puts all Europeans, incl Germans at risk.
After all the 🚦 infighting, there is an understandable desire to find points of unity & try to make stable government.
But if that comes at the cost of making the reforms #Germany really needs & sells Ukraine down the river it is a dereliction of duty.