Thread by @fuecks

Trying to understand German politics: (1) Bad thing, but not our war. (2) We must not push Putin to the wall or nuclear war threatens. Germany's fear of escalation sounds reasonable, but gives Putin a free hand + makes him stronger than he is. /1 @SZ sz.de/1.5570561

My piece for @SZ was already written before Chancellor #Scholz explained himself in Spiegel. Fits, though. If top priority of German policy is "to avoid escalation towards NATO", we tie our own hands and leave it to Putin to escalate the war in #Ukraine./2

All NATO countries face the dilemma of supporting #Ukraine militarily without entering the war themselves. But few others are so driven by fear of military escalation. This virtually invites Putin to threaten nuclear war. /3

The best precaution against the threat of nuclear war is determined deterrence. That is what #NATO is based on. Deterrence requires combat readiness. #Putin is not a suicide bomber, but is testing how far he can go without facing determined resistance by the West. /4

Scholz' announcement that #Germany stands ready as a guarantor power after a peace agreement is not very credible: How do we want to guarantee the security of #Ukraine if we exclude any military conflict with #Russia a priori? /5

Chancellor #Scholz dodges the crucial question of whether the Russian military attack must fail to create room for a negotiated settlement. Those who want to rule out a "peace dictate" must unconditionally supply weapons to #Ukraine + weaken the Russian regime to the maximum./6

That Scholz categorically rules out a #gasembargo without even mentioning an #oilembargo or expanded sanctions against Russian banks fits the picture. Instead of increasing pressure on Moscow, we are putting on the brakes. The price GER doesn't want to pay is paid by #Ukraine./7

We don't want war with #Russia. But for Putin & Co, the invasion of #Ukraine is part of the big showdown with NATO and the West. Those who want to avoid an all out war with #Russia should do everything to make Putin fail in Ukraine. /8

https://twitter.com/BBCHARDtalk/status/1517518505997914113?s=20&t=bPHttLLsLH1oMnmWHsEj5A