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Karen Braun

@kannbwx

May 5

🌽Global #corn export thread🌽

🇺🇸USA, 🇧🇷#Brazil, 🇦🇷#Argentina & 🇺🇦#Ukraine account for 85% of the world's corn exports. But who ships where?

🇺🇸Let's start in top exporter USA. China, Mexico & Japan were the destinations for 69% of all shipments last year.

🇺🇸USA only started shipping heavily to #China again in the last two years, so here is the 3-year average prior to that. Mexico, Japan & South Korea accounted for 58%.

🇧🇷Two-thirds of shipments out of No. 2 #corn exporter #Brazil end up in these seven countries: Iran, Japan, Egypt, Vietnam, Spain, South Korea & Taiwan. That has been true the past 3 years despite annual export volumes varying drastically based on the harvest outcomes.

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Karen Braun

@kannbwx

Apr 21

U.S. #drought conditions this week versus the previous 3 years. Dryness expanded considerably in Nebraska this past week, but other Corn Belt areas are slightly improving. More than half of North Dakota is now drought-free for the first time since Aug. 4, 2020.

Here's the same week in the previous four years just for fun. The core Corn Belt states have not often started spring planting in widespread drought conditions. The HRW wheat crop in the S. Plains was heavily affected by drought in 2015 and 2018.

Now versus a month ago. Drought has expanded in the Plains (HRW wheat country, Nebraska, somewhat SD), but it has retreated in North Dakota and parts of the Midwest. Planting into dry soils is not the problem (actually it helps), but the fear is continuation of the dryness.

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Karen Braun

@kannbwx

Apr 18

Soils are a bit too cold across Iowa right now for any widespread #corn planting. Soil temps as of Sunday were hovering around 40F, but 50F and above is most preferable to plant corn. Air temps will be chilly most of this week, but warmer weather is forecast this weekend.

Here's going back 4 years on the same date:

I also want to include 2017 because it was among Iowa's warmest for the date. 2018 was notoriously cold and Iowa's corn planting lagged normal most of the spring. Corn planting in 2021 was ahead of average and efficient from the end of April on.

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Karen Braun

@kannbwx

Mar 30

An important #wheat thread:

The world grew a record wheat crop in 2021/22, but don’t let that deceive you when it comes to actual availability.

You must look at the projected year-end stocks and most critically, the expected demand relative to those stocks, also record high.

Global #wheat stocks-to-use in 2021/22 of 28.5% would be a six-year low. Excluding #China, that ratio falls to 16.6%, a 14-year low.

But most of the actual available global supplies lie in the major exporters. Stocks-to-use in those countries of 14% is close to all-time lows.

Why do we exclude #China? It will hold 51% of the world’s #wheat by mid-year. None of that wheat is available to the global market as it is stockpiled for food security.

Five straight bumper crops will allow #India’s exports to hit records this year. It too has gov't reserves.

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Karen Braun

@kannbwx

Mar 28

U.S. quarterly stocks won't be the main event Thursday, but supplies are tighter than usual so they can't be forgotten. Trade estimates would be:
#Corn: +2.4% YOY, -5.7% on 5yr avg
#Soybeans: +22% YOY, -8.5% on 5yr avg
#Wheat: -20% YOY, -30% on 5yr avg, 13yr low for date

Don't be fooled by +22% YOY for #soybeans when it comes to Sept. 1 possibilities. 2nd half use in 20/21 was a 6yr low and 18% below the 5yr avg. Exports were extremely light for the period after the big effort in H1, and the remaining 21/22 book is much bigger than usual.

When I say quarterly stocks aren't the main event, what I mean is that U.S. corn and soy acreage in particular will be the two numbers the market wants to see first on Thursday. But never dismiss stocks.... they can stir up chaos anytime, anywhere.

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Karen Braun

@kannbwx

Apr 1, 2021

Lot's of discussion yesterday on the surprisingly light U.S. acreage intentions. This is total 2021 acres versus March 2020 intentions (I posted these numbers versus 2020 final yesterday). Most states reported fewer planted acres for 2021 than they did for 2020.

But I asked farmers yesterday to give insight on why acres were light and got a BUNCH of good answers (thank you!). Some of those explanations (high cost of inputs, prices of other crops - hay for example, rotations, etc) all make sense. Check out that thread if you haven't.

Another possible angle: If we claim low confidence in USDA's 2021 numbers, wouldn't we also want to question their March 2020 numbers? Maybe the March 2020 intentions were too ambitious. And ultimately, these numbers are based on what farmers told USDA.

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