2/ Fines aren't the only penalty for breaching lockdown laws, so it is feasible that #Starmer can be found to have broken the law but not fined. inews.co.uk/news/uk/covid-….
His reputation would be ruined but would he still stay on to drag Labour down at the next election.
3/ If he is fined and has to resign, #Labour will have to run a leadership contest. There could be a long contest and a new leader won't have time to establish themselves before an election.
4/ If he is exonerated, the commitment to resign would leave the speculation about his future in the air for weeks if not months, weakening his authority even further after disastrous local elections in which #Labour went backwards.
5/ Far from revive #Partygate as an issue #Labour could use to attack the Tories it will be a running sore for #Starmer. Johnson has already survived #partygate, so there's no point in drawing attention to an issue that is now more of a problem for #Labour.
6/6 The whole #Partygate issue would distract from other, more incisive critiques #Labour COULD level at the Government. But #Starmer doesn't listen to us. The main reason for this thread is so we can say we told you so later. He really would be better just resigning now.
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1/ Been an awful week for #Tories in Westminster but in real elections in the real world #Labour has been crashing and burning. OK, so local by elections aren't individually representative of national trends...
2/ But taken together, the results show a clear swing AGAINST #Labour that isn't being picked up in opinion polls between them.
If you have to choose, go by the actual results cast in real elections.
3/ How to explain the discrepancy? Could be that a lot of the Tory "don't knows" who've given #Starmer his lead are in fact voting Tory when they turn out. Of course, young people are traditionally more likely to vote #Labour and less likely to vote in by-elections. That said...
1/ Succinct but fair analysis. The UK's response to the 2008 crash - cutting back the state and using quantitative easing to fund a massive debt bubble failed. The so called "recovery" (which benefited ]private finance more than people) was also a bubble that's now about to pop.
2/ Quantitative easing has been maxed out (if it continues, we'll be in negative interest rates). So now the Government is raising interest rates while private debt is at historic highs. Can the economy afford this?
3/ Remember that QE lasted far longer than originally intended, perhaps from fears over what interest rate rises would mean for peoples' ability to pay down debt. Normally, in difficult economic circumstances the Government would drop interest rates to boost spending.
1/ It was shocking at the time & remains so now that the Momentum "left" considered this a legitimate position People said at the time: "what else was she supposed to do?"
Not excuse #apartheid.
PPL who said so at the time were dismissed as "cranks." #AmnestyInternational
2/ It's wrong to single out RLB, a decent person badly advised. Rather, it illustrates a broader problem on the soft left of British politics: a desire to be accepted by the establishment & mainstream media. Too often, positions are not taken for reasons of truth & accuracy...
3/ but to please institutions and organisations that will NEVER willingly accept a left wing Government. This led to the dumping of arguments that were not only defensible on grounds of basic fact but could have been used to advance progressive causes...
1/ To call this "full fact" is misleading. It omits that, prior to the conclusion of the investigation #Starmer commissioned into his own CPS, he claimed he'd been assured that that "the decisions were the right decisions based on the information and evidence then available"
3/ Moreover, the report makes clear that there were "no insurmountable barriers to prosecution" and that an explanation as to why charges were not brought as only been offered "in part", laying the most of the blame on police...
1/ Thread on why #Labour is on course to lose and what it's current trajectory and strategy suggests for its future:
It's tiny lead is declining, suggesting, as many of us have explained previously, support is soft. The softness of #Labour support is a feature of "strategy"...
2/ #Starmer wants to win over former #Tory voters alienated by #Johnson's more than usually explicit corruption. As #Corbyn was aware (and demonstrated more effectively than Miliband and Brown) , winning an election requires expanding #Labour's supporter base...
3/ But this isn't what #Starmer is doing. His strategy seems to be based more on out of date 1990s dogma than actual electoral politics. It assumes that swing voters won't be attracted to #Labour if they percieve it to be "too left wing"...