🧵 [1] JUST OUT: The 2nd report I’ve coauthored with the recently-formed International Working Group on Russia Sanctions, coordinated by @FSIStanford@McFaul outlining urgent comprehensive energy embargoes & sanctions on Putin’s regime.
[3] For our second report, we have focused on a comprehensive set of “smart embargoes”, sanctions, and policy measures to rapidly limit the ability of the #Kremlin to raise further state revenues via energy sales abroad to the greatest extent possible.
[4] 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦 Given the significant role oil & gas revenues play in funding #Putin’s horrific war machine used against Ukraine, it is vital that the international community take steps to stop this flow of money NOW‼️
[5] Some highlights of urgent Russia energy sanctions measures suggested to be taken in this energy sanctions-focused Working Group report, include:
[6] First & foremost Working Group endorses EU announcement that it will impose a complete import ban on all Russian oil, calling for “smart embargoes” to immediately end oil imports & graduated embargo on gas imports, as well as policies to make EU independent of Russian energy.
[7] For oil, need a “smart embargo” ending oil & oil product imports from #Russia to greatest extent possible, as quickly as possible. For any interim sales en route to zero, import tariffs or escrow mechanisms should be set up to limit #Kremlin revenues immediately.
[8] To limit ability of #Kremlin to circumvent #embargo & measures of any temporary controlled sales regime, we call for tech-calibrated sanctions on entities providing insurance & technical services to #Russian vessels, including tethering & ship-to-ship transfer support firms.
[9] Oil #technology#sanctions should also be expanded beyond the current scope of shale, deep-water offshore & #Arctic sanctions to cover all oil-field services and technologies across the Russian Federation.
[10] This measure also calls for sanctions against any remaining EU or US national that remains working in senior executive positions within the Russian oil & gas sector - a sanction aimed at ending Kremlin’s strategic corruption of western officials (e.g. stop #Schröderization).
[11] The Group highlights national security threat of Russian state owned enterprises still having partial or full ownership stakes in critical EU energy infrastructure (e.g. #Gazprom owning gas storage facilities & #Rosneft owning refineries) & requires Russian divestment now.
[12] Neutralize Moscow’s long-term strategy of advancing diversionary pipelines by announcing decommissioning dates for #Gazprom’s #NordStream1, #TurkStream2 & #Yamal pipeline routes, channeling remaining gas through Ukrainian route until full gas embargo is reached across EU.
[13] While full gas embargo develops, institute controlled sales regime on #Gazprom sales (similar to oil proposals) to sharply limit funds reaching #Kremlin from gas purchases & support 🇺🇦 reconstruction. Deploy near term measures to cut Russian gas imports as much as possible.
[14] Rapidly deploy further LNG import infrastructure around EU & repurpose current German #NordStream1 & #NordStream2 gas hub at Lubmin, converting site to instead link to non-Russian LNG imports via FSRU deployment.
Accelerate renewable energy infrastructure deployments in EU.
[15] 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦 This is just a top level summary of some of the hard-hitting policy proposals outlined in this second Working Group report.
Please do take a moment to read full report & call on global democracies to empty Putin’s energy piggy bank while standing with Ukraine‼️
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🧵 [1] ALERT: Kremlin-controlled #Gazprom informed #Polish & #Bulgarian officials that it suspended natural gas deliveries to both countries, once again demonstrating how #Moscow continues to weaponize energy against Europe.
[2] 👀 First, the latest flow rates reported by the EU @ENTSOG natural gas network flow transparency portal. According to ENTSOG, Gazprom physical flows at the Kondratki entry point to the Yamal transmission pipeline at the Poland-Belarus border is near zero:
[3] 👀 Meanwhile, @ENTSOG shows the gas flows across at Strandzha-2 interconnector, the entry point of Gazprom’s #TurkStream2 pipeline to the Bulgarian gas transmission system operated by #Bulgartransgaz sharply decreasing in last few days:
🧵
🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦
[1]JUST OUT: Report that I’ve coauthored with the recently-formed International Working Group on Russia Sanctions, coordinated by @FSIStanford@McFaul outlining an urgent comprehensive sanctions package on the Putin regime.
[3] The Group placed an outsized focus on measures that will rapidly & drastically reduce the Kremlin’s ability to continue its criminal war of aggression against Ukraine - targeting Russian hydrocarbon export & banking sector, as well as tightening critical tech export controls.
[2] Recently my @DUCIGS Space Diplomacy Lab Co-Director Prof Giovanni Zanalda & I hosted a roundtable focused on space issues posed by 🇷🇺‘s war on 🇺🇦 & long-term space security challenges w/ space media leaders @LorenGrush, @RaminSkibba & @Jeff_Foust:
👇👇
[3]🚀Recall in Nov, during Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine, the Russian military launched a reckless direct-ascent anti-satellite test, that created a major space debris event & endangered US, EU & Russian personnel on International Space Station
[1] 🚨THREAD🚨 According to @NesteGlobal, Russian Urals crude oil continues to crater in price compared to the Brent crude benchmark. Trading at -$5.65 per barrel on 5 day average.
What does this mean? And how can corporate responsibility urgently support Ukraine? Please read👇
[2] Energy traders still assess sanctions & reputational risk of importing Russian oil, & are avoiding oil tanker calls at Baltic & Black Sea Russian ports due to security & sanctions risk.
Turkish owned ship was struck by a shell in Black Sea today.
[3] This has led Russian Urals oil price per barrel to hit “lowest ever level relative to Brent” at -$11.23 per barrel as of a few hours ago according to S&P Global Platts:
[1] 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 Germany’s announcement it has suspended certification of Kremlin’s #NordStream2 pipeline was an urgently needed step given Russia’s overt invasion of Ukraine’s Donbas region. Welcome & long overdue.
[2] Suspending the certification process for #NordStream2 should be seen as a first step by Berlin in deterring further Russian military action against Ukraine, followed by further action to block the pipeline for good.
[3] Berlin should next seek sanctions at the EU level ensuring that the Kremlin-backed #NordStream2 can never come online and be allowed to do lasting harm to European energy security and Ukrainian national security interests in the process.
🇺🇸🇪🇺 [1] With Washington once again focusing on policy options to stop the Kremlin-backed NordStream2 pipeline this week, my attempt at a (hopefully thoughtful) thread to help provide context:
[2] The framing of NordStream2 sanctions has suddenly (and unfortunately) become partisan, but in fact, opposition to NS2 has been bipartisan since 2015, and support for sanctions has been led by Democrats and Republicans since 2017.
[3] The US has opposed #NordStream2 on bipartisan basis since 2015. Congress has passed both discretionary (2017 CAATSA) & mandatory (2019 & 2020 NDAA) sanctions to stop #NS2 on near unanimous basis. In 2016, VP Biden was first prominent senior official to publicly oppose NS2.