Thread by @jseldin

NEW: #Russia invasion of #Ukraine - Russian ground forces making "slow and uneven" in #Donbas, w/airstrikes ongoing there & in #Mariupol, per a senior US defense official

"Limited stand-off strikes" near #Odesa, official adds

#Russia increased # of sorties to over 300 in past 24 hours, per a senior US defense official

Towns & villages changing hands still - "There's a lot of back and forth" per a senior US defense official

US assesses 99 operation BTGs [battalion tactical groups] inside #Ukraine - adding 2 airborne BTGs in past 24 hours, per a senior US defense official

Almost all #Howitzers, 65% of rounds delivered, per a senior US defense official

NEW: first of the 11 additional Mi-17 helicopters (from #Afghanistan) being delivered to #Ukraine today, per a senior US defense official

#Russia - hypersonics?

"No indications that we've seen that #hypersonic have been used on #Odesa..." per a senior US defense official

"These strikes have been sporadic in #Odesa...it's not clear what they're actually trying to get at" per a senior US defense official, suggesting strikes vs the city could be part of effort to damage economy OR draw attention of #Ukraine military

#Russia in #Ukraine still has "a majority of their combat power available to them" per a senior US defense official

"#Odesa is still solidly in #Ukrainian control" per a senior US defense official

"Just no indication that #Odesa is under any sort o imminent threat" from ground or sea by #Russia|n forces, per a senior US defense official

"Since the sinking of the #Moskova, their [#Russia'] ships have stayed well south of #Odesa" per a senior US defense official

Sanctions "making it harder for Mr. Putin to replenish those stocks" of #Russia's precision guided munitions and some critical components, per a senior US defense official

US assesses #Russia has about 20 ships in the #BlackSea - still no confirmation about claims #Ukraine forces hit the Admiral Markarov frigate, per a senior US defense official

Despite increase in #Russia|n sorties - airspace over #Ukraine remains contested, per a senior US defense official who praises Ukrainian forces for short-range & long-range air defense efforts

Russia still hesitant to fly into Ukraine-"That speaks volumes" per the official

#Russia's increased sorties still not venturing into #Ukraine airspace much or for long...

"We're not seeing patrolling missions...sometimes they don't even leave Russian airspace" to launch strikes, per a senior US defense official

"It's not clear to us the degree to which any of Mr. Putin's strategic objectives have changed..." per a senior US defense official "We don't know he's given up on #KyivDiary

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1524023464037912581?s=20&t=Rd3tSiURf7__ofSAFQiWPw

#Russia failing to make progress - #Russia "still bombing #Mariupol bcs the resistance in that steel plant has not ended" per a senior US defense official

Official adds #Putin is "easily 2 weeks or maybe even more behind where he wanted to be" in eastern #Ukraine

"We believe that he [#Putin] certainly wants a land bridge to #Crimea" per a senior US defense official, saying Putin has it w/the exception of #Mariupol

Doesn't comment on other intel shared by @ODNIgov's Avril Haines

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1524024694713769988?s=20&t=Rd3tSiURf7__ofSAFQiWPw

NEW: US assesses #Russia has likely launched 10-12 #hypersonic weapons at #Ukraine since the start of the conflict on February 24, per a senior US defense official