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Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
@CantillonCH
May 13, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
🧵
1/n
For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.

2/n
Even the food we eat requires them. We have not improved the living standards of all our teeming billions on the quasi-Neolithic methods of farming so beloved of the ignorant #Green metromarxists.

3/n
But who wants to discuss THAT when we can all Ooh! and Aah! at the ongoing #Tech-#memestock-#crypto collapse instead??

4/n
As for rising prices, it's going to take a LOT to get Pandora to lock the nasties back in her accursed box - as #JeromePowell, almost alone of all his hapless peers, seems slowly to have realised.

#FederalReserve #inflation

5/n
Regarding #bond #yields, as Bagehot famously said: "John Bull can stand much. But he cannot stand 2%", though HE meant no-one could survive, investing sanity intact, if they were that LOW!

#UST $TLT

6/n
Not investment advice, etc, etc.

7/n
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More from @CantillonCH

Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
Apr 16
The point YOU miss is that the US govt (Fed+ State/Local) commandeers $10 trillions' worth of scarce resources each year (BEA Govt GFS), more than HALF of Private Net National Product (BEA 1.7.5 & 1.1.5).
The deficit amounts to $1.8tln pa; 2 1/2 x net private biz investment.
1/x
Of course, to you Double-#MMT Heads, the State's voracity, waste & corruption are doing a vast service to the poor souls whose "savings" are thereby eaten up & whose income & capital formation, both, are diverted to cost-plus mandates, subsidies, nest-feathering & boondoggles 2/x
And how do you justify this utter perversion of economic sense? By pointing to the static accounting tautology that what Leviathan scoffs & issues IOUs against is an equal & opposite boon to the Granny who gets to stack them in place of food in her now emptied cupboard!
3/x
 #MMT
Read 4 tweets
Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
Oct 18, 2023
If there is ONE lesson to be drawn from the past two years of conflict reporting in both the #Ukraine & now #Gaza it is that, even with countless mobile device cameras at hand, it is still impossible to penetrate the lies, deception & propaganda to reach the verity of what-
-is actually taking place; of who is doing what to whom and why. The old, Napoleonic simile, "to lie like a bulletin", still holds true - "citizen journalists", or no.

If there is a second lesson, it is that this proves no impediment to the generation of MSM red-top rage or-
-to the unthinking, onward propagation of fabrications, misinterpretations & rushed judgements by the credulous, the prejudiced & the sensation junkies, here on social media.

A third lesson, perhaps, is that this sad reality extends to all of what we think of as "history"-
Read 5 tweets
Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
Jun 8, 2023
A disparate cluster of interests -some venal, some ideological, some quasi-religious- have found common expression in the issue of #Climate™️. Too much, intellectually, financially, emotionally, politically has been sunk into it to allow for honest discussion.
1/x
Even minor scepticism or attempts at technical or economic discussion start by begging the question of whether ANY of this game is worth the candle; all include the Insh’allah of “...while climate change is accelerated and we must (!) address the problem at once...”
2/x
If we start from the false premise that the threat is both pressing and existential, then obviously we narrow the choice to a menu of ‘solutions’ which involve vast expenditure, radical social upheaval, and severe limitations on personal liberty.
3/x
Read 10 tweets
Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
Jun 5, 2023
Smith, for all his virtues, here begs the question of what determines prices. If it were always simply at the whim of the producer why would such individuals and firms limit themselves to (1.05)^n? Why not 1.1? 1.2? 2? 200? 2000?

If each stage could only reap its 5%, why...
...would each not strive to acquire all those identifiably up- and downstream of it, collapsing the very division of labour Smith so correctly lauded?

And what of the VALUE of these so easily dictated profits? If the final price rises exponentially, the entrepreneur’s return...
...turns to dust in his hands: his 5% surplus buys only 1/(1.05)^[n-1] finished goods in the worst case, so who benefits? And where does the money come from to pay such a pyramid of rising purchase and sale prices if not from the REAL #inflation determinant - expanding credit!?
Read 5 tweets
Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
Jun 3, 2023
Now, children, ask yourselves what the Treasury will do with that $1.4tln.
(Hint: it will not be locked in a vault in Iron Mountain)
Next, ask what the successive orders of recipients of that $1.4tln will do with their booty.
(Hint 2: no mattresses will be stuffed) ....
So, class, you can see that -to the extent the banks do *not* create extra credit to accommodate the USTs- we will DIVERT ‘liquidity’, not destroy it - and some of the very same Co.s you’re buying today will see revenues increase even as others’ will fall....
Not saying such a shift will be free of consequences -nor denying that some of those outcomes may aggravate unsuspected vulnerabilities- but prima facie doom is to be avoided...
Read 4 tweets
Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
May 8, 2023
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
1/n
 #FRB
#FederalReserve Image
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
2/n Image
The #ISM #PMI showed an uptick but is still below 50 which implies that revenue growth is NOT about to accelerate again. Again, slower #inflation & flatline volume = an end to the boom, but not yet a bust.
3/n Image
Read 15 tweets

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