Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
May 13, 2022 8 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
🧵
1/n
For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.

2/n
Even the food we eat requires them. We have not improved the living standards of all our teeming billions on the quasi-Neolithic methods of farming so beloved of the ignorant #Green metromarxists.

3/n
But who wants to discuss THAT when we can all Ooh! and Aah! at the ongoing #Tech-#memestock-#crypto collapse instead??

4/n
As for rising prices, it's going to take a LOT to get Pandora to lock the nasties back in her accursed box - as #JeromePowell, almost alone of all his hapless peers, seems slowly to have realised.

#FederalReserve #inflation

5/n
Regarding #bond #yields, as Bagehot famously said: "John Bull can stand much. But he cannot stand 2%", though HE meant no-one could survive, investing sanity intact, if they were that LOW!

#UST $TLT

6/n
Not investment advice, etc, etc.

7/n
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More from @CantillonCH

Aug 24
If you didn't hate central bankers enough, they have spent their careers depreciating your money, degrading your economy, debilitating your energy supply and now want to dissolve your societal bonds & drown your traditions in a fake demographic argument for 'growth'.
If they were not so culpable of abetting a monstrous waste of resources, empowering the profligate state, undermining thrift & self-reliance & perverting entrepreneurship, the ageing West would have capital aplenty to survive -and thrive- amid the change.
Moreover, any new, foreign workers who were still needed could be safely employed at home in their own lands, by the export of such capital, the import of their goods, not bodies.

This is not only a false economics but a pernicious ideology, damaging to all -at home AND abroad.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 4
FYI I usually switch off when I read the idea that only the current genius understands what all the great economic thinkers of the past somehow 'overlooked'.

But, FWIW, here's a quick reaction to the usual COiner hyperbole.

1/x
What these guys miss is that if only a set amount of BTC comes into existence, but the numbers using it grow, as do the transactions they engage in (whether population growth &/or output, network effects, increased, higher-order complexity of the productive structure...

2/x
...disassociation of worker units from large conglomerates to individual output 'pods'),that "divisibility" is going to become VERY stretched AND we are going to have to try to build in our estimation of this...

3/x
Read 8 tweets
Mar 30
Picture that archetypal sci-fi dystopia where a drastically reduced population survives a devastating pandemic.

With much of human knowledge still accessible & a vast stock of capital in existence, per capita real wealth has potentially greatly increased.

1/x
Of course, networks will need to be rebuilt, specialisations prioritised, exchange restarted, institutions refounded, but the lower headcount will make the call on the most marginal resources redundant, lowering costs & boosting productivity.

2/x
Sound far-fetched? Well, scholars such as Professor James Belich argue, in exhaustive detail, that such a scenario played out in the aftermath of the Black Death, greatly boosting the survivors' well-being & stimulating technical (& even artistic) advance.

3/x
Read 9 tweets
Sep 3, 2024
Were I the self-publicising type (viz., distaff-side economists "COUGH!"), my *Cantillon Consulting Rule* would be: Everytime NAPM/#ISM less the 50 break-even loses a cumulative 20+ points in a year, we get a recession. Only false reading in 70 yrs, the '96 auto strike.
#PMI Image
Yet, even as the sector languishes, as per the #PMI, #manufacturing #construction contines to set new records.

And, this time, we can't even blame super low interest rates or the kind of laxity in providing funding to whcih we've become accustomed of late.

🤔 Image
For illustration, #manufacturing #construction spending versus revenues (shipments).

Anyone know how THIS works out?? Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 16, 2024
The point YOU miss is that the US govt (Fed+ State/Local) commandeers $10 trillions' worth of scarce resources each year (BEA Govt GFS), more than HALF of Private Net National Product (BEA 1.7.5 & 1.1.5).
The deficit amounts to $1.8tln pa; 2 1/2 x net private biz investment.
1/x
Of course, to you Double-#MMT Heads, the State's voracity, waste & corruption are doing a vast service to the poor souls whose "savings" are thereby eaten up & whose income & capital formation, both, are diverted to cost-plus mandates, subsidies, nest-feathering & boondoggles 2/x
And how do you justify this utter perversion of economic sense? By pointing to the static accounting tautology that what Leviathan scoffs & issues IOUs against is an equal & opposite boon to the Granny who gets to stack them in place of food in her now emptied cupboard!
3/x
#MMT
Read 4 tweets
Oct 18, 2023
If there is ONE lesson to be drawn from the past two years of conflict reporting in both the #Ukraine & now #Gaza it is that, even with countless mobile device cameras at hand, it is still impossible to penetrate the lies, deception & propaganda to reach the verity of what-
-is actually taking place; of who is doing what to whom and why. The old, Napoleonic simile, "to lie like a bulletin", still holds true - "citizen journalists", or no.

If there is a second lesson, it is that this proves no impediment to the generation of MSM red-top rage or-
-to the unthinking, onward propagation of fabrications, misinterpretations & rushed judgements by the credulous, the prejudiced & the sensation junkies, here on social media.

A third lesson, perhaps, is that this sad reality extends to all of what we think of as "history"-
Read 5 tweets

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