Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #bond

Most recents (24)

There has been ample talk about an upcoming market #crash ever since, well, the previous crash.

People point to, among other things, Shiller’s CAPE ratio, at a 38 multiple (second highest ever).

How do we know if we really are in a #bubble? A thread is due.
Let’s dive in👇🧵 Image
1/ Is there anything we can use to tell whether a market is indeed in a bubble? To borrow a quote from The Big Short:

Lawrence Fields: “Actually, no one can see a bubble... that's what makes it a bubble.”

Michael Burry: “That's dumb, Lawrence. There are always markers.” Image
2/ Let’s examine those “markers” by revisiting what the top authority on market irrationality and exuberance has to say about it – Nobel winner @RobertJShiller

His book Irrational Exuberance anticipated both the 2000 dot-com bubble burst and the 2006 housing bubble burst. Image
Read 26 tweets
With all the talk about #Bond and fact vs fiction, here are a few examples of fiction shaping fact

1. @CIA director Allen Dulles loved Bond's gadgets so much he instructed CIA to replicate - for real - as many as they could...
He claimed CIA successfully managed to make a spring-loaded poison knife (as seen in From Russia with Love)

but failed to make a homing-beacon for a car (as seen in Goldeneye)

source: direct.mit.edu/jcws/article/1…
2. A British foreign secretary once turned down an MI6 operation to engineer regime change in Abu Dhabi on the grounds that it was too much of a "James Bond scheme"

source:
amazon.co.uk/Disrupt-Deny-S…
Read 8 tweets
In a quickfire interview with GQ, Daniel Craig speaks about his favourite Bond gadgets, the injuries he sustained in the line of duty and what he hopes his legacy as the world’s most famous spy will be. #GQVsTheUniverse trib.al/sJ5XitU
The reigning 007, Mr Daniel Craig, takes on all the questions fans really want to know in #GQVsTheUniverse: bit.ly/GQDanielCraigV…
#NoTimeToDie
“I hope that #Bond has changed a lot while I have been a part of him… I don’t judge the characters I play, I try and let the audience do that.”
Watch the full #GQVsTheUniverse video here: bit.ly/GQDanielCraigV… #NoTimeToDie
Read 12 tweets
Getting some DMs whether #stock #market is going to crash.
Remember a few things.
#Bullmarket in midway when person like me without any #financialeducation / #stocks knowledge tweets regularly as expert!
When people R at fear of #Markets crash!
When everyone is putting (1/n)
Their #money into #LargeCap from #midandsmall #caps!

Sign of #impending #crash in #Markets :
People #invest in very high valuation stocks without any fundamentals!
#Deja_vu that bear market doesn't exist!
People feel to leave job as #Markets a better and regular place to (2/n)
#Earn!
People R buying #realestate as if there is no #Tomorrow!
#Ileterate people like #me feels they contol D #Markets!
#Asset #heavy #businesses R running #amok!
#bond #yield n #interest #rates all time high!
#Danger ⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡

U R on D verge of crash!
Read 3 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 03/21/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/03/21/dai…
Debunking Piketty and the Left's Celebrity Economists | Mises Wire

mises.org/wire/debunking…

#Piketty #debunk
How a Small Rise in Bond Yields May Create a Financial Crisis | Mises Wire

mises.org/wire/how-small…

#FinancialCrisis #bond
Read 10 tweets
A Thread 🧵on how bond yields impact stock market ?

Must read for beginners in #StockMarket.

(RT to maximize reach.)

#Bonds #BondYields #StockMarket #Investing
What is #bond ?

Bonds are issued by governments and corporations when they want to raise money. By buying a bond, investor is giving the issuer a loan, and issuer agrees to pay the investor back the face value of the loan on a specific date, and to pay periodic interest as well.
What is bond yield ?

Bond yield, on the other hand, is the return that an investor gets on that bond or on a particular government security.

#Investing #StockMarket #Bonds
Read 8 tweets
#BOND WATCH!

🚨🚨MEGA ALERT!🚨🚨

#USA 30 YEAR REAL YIELD GONE POSITIVE!

@HustlerHindu reminded me i once said;
"The only thing i fear is US real rates going positive"

We're here.

#WallstreetSilver #Silversqueeze $PSLV #PSLVChallenge #fintwit @WallStreetSLVR @Galactic_Trader
The reason i said that is simple.

"Once real rates go positive, they won't be able to be stopped."

"When real rates go positive the negative rates/gold correlation will break, as it's not causation"

"Rather going up with yields going down, gold will go up with yields going up"
Read 4 tweets
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.

I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look

1/x

#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal
Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.

2/x
Not that they're alone in their folly, of course. The #ECB is outodoing them handsomely, while the #bankofengland is breaking records stretching back to its founding, 327 years ago.
#centralbanks
3/x
Read 10 tweets
Check out new report by @zacharyhaver:

#Sansha City in #China’s #SouthChinaSea Strategy: Building a System of Administrative Control”

bit.ly/SanshaCITY

Great @ChinaMaritime Report #12 continues #CMSI tradition @NavalWarCollege!

andrewerickson.com/2021/01/cmsi-c…

With>20 exhibits ImageImageImageImage
Back in 2017, @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute Director @peter_dutton approved my proposal for a #China #Maritime #Report series & invited @KennedyMaritime & me to contribute the inaugural report.

11 editions later, this series is better than ever!

@zacharyhaver's work = proof. ImageImageImageImage
#China established #SanshaCity in 2012 to administer most of its #territorial & #maritime claims in the #SouthChinaSea.

@zacharyhaver probes nearly a decade's developments there with insights & detail that will amaze & fascinate many.

digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewconten…

#MustRead #MustSee ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
1/365 - Starting this thread with one of the first Motorcycles to be built in India. The @royalenfield #Bullet350. A Motorcycle which was initially built for the Indian Army but with time found patronage amongst varying genre of people achieving a cult status over the decades. ImageImageImageImage
2/365 - After selling imported Vespas for a while, Bajaj Auto started manufacturing the #Bajaj150 under license in 1959. This was one of the first Scooters in India and certainly changed the 2-Wheeler scene as it was initially available at a significant premium in the market. ImageImageImageImage
3/365 Automobile Products of India (API) was the 1st Scooter maker in India and manufactured the #Lambretta Li 150 Series 2 under license from Innocenti at Bombay in the 1960's. This scooter was very popular and made appearances in a few famous Bollywood movies too. #BikerLife ImageImageImageImage
Read 73 tweets
What are the best channels to #invest in if I want monthly #returns?
What can we teach #children about #financialindependence?
What is the right #assetallocation strategy?
Read 6 tweets
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Read 56 tweets
We’ve seen near a 20-basis point backup in long #bond #rates since the beginning of the month, which has come alongside many #economic data prints that have surprised to the upside, as well as firmer than expected #inflation. Image
One question to consider, then, is how much of this #economic improvement is due to restocking dynamics versus more permanent/structural gains to #economic activity? The answer to that is likely to become more apparent in the months ahead.
We foresee a gradually rising range for long-end #yields in the year’s second half, as @USTreasury issuance will remain robust. Image
Read 5 tweets
So biggest casualty of #Fed warning on #US #economy y'day, was #Gold,which dropped 3% to $1951.90 an ounce,within minutes of #FedMinutes

Silver too fell below $28

Rout was not limited to precious metals--#Nasdaq sold off despite #Apple hitting $2 trillion market cap

#Covid_19
#CrudeOil whipsawed in tight range with #WTI at $42.83

#Fed's take on economic downturn was nothing new&yet markets collapsed

Only asset which saw aggressive buying was US #Tbills,with 10 yr #bond #yield@ 0.665% Vs previous close of 0.685%

#Dollar had its best day in 2 months
So what does y'day's frenzied buying in #bonds indicate?Is the #RiskOn trade over?

Well,not quite--With $9 trillion of excess global #liquidity sloshing around due to coordinated Central Bank rate cuts,since #Covid_19, equities will move up,albeit with severe bouts of volatility
Read 7 tweets
With my colleague Jacob Caplain, our latest @blackrock blog post contends that uncertainties still exist for the #economy and #markets, yet with #market dislocations witnessed in recent months, #investors don’t need to resort to lower-quality assets: bit.ly/3cvSwOH
In fact, we think the opportunity in fixed #income today resides more in medium-quality spread sectors, than in the riskiest #assets, or in the #rate-heavy universe.
When we look at what’s happened in the past when spread makes up the majority of #yield in these regions of the #bond market, the forward 1-year spread change in IG corporate #bonds is near 70 bps tighter when spread/yield is above the 90th percentile. Image
Read 3 tweets
Most of the rally at the longer end of the yield curve has already come about since the time @RBI started reducing policy rates. So, longer end of the #yield curve could thus prove less rewarding and risky (expected to encounter high #volatility) in the foreseeable #future. Image
- We may not see significant rally in longer duration funds.

- The rate cut would have limited impacted on prices & the yields in shorter duration #funds. (2) #mutualfunds #DebtFunds #debt #SaarthiZarooriHai #AssetAllocation
As govt. has raised its FY21 #borrowing limit by over 50% to ₹12 lakh crores from ₹7.8 lakh crores on account of COVID-19 #pandemic. Higher borrowing puts upward pressure on #bond #yields.
#mutualfunds #debt #DebtFunds #funds (3/3)
Read 3 tweets
Our expectation is that the #Fed will purchase roughly equivalent to at least $1.5 trillion in #Treasuries over the remainder of the year (~$200 billion per month).
With asset purchasing in roughly these amounts, as well as everything the #Fed has already done, the magnitude of the #policy response to this #economic crisis is simply stunning.
In fact, by year end, we anticipate the #Fed’s balance sheet will have grown by a staggering $7 trillion in an effort to deal with the fallout of the #CoronavirusCrisis, or a pace of nearly $26 billion per day over a 270-day window.
Read 4 tweets
Another canard currently doing the rounds is this whole, "Yields are low ergo public debt is no burden - and yields must STAY low or it WOULD quickly become one, far too heavy to bear" schtick.

#UST #Treasury #Fed #deficit 1/x
Clearly no-one understands the difference between real costs and virtual, financial ones.

The State's gross mishandling of the #coronavirus crisis has destroyed or impaired tremendous amounts of productive #capital - a loss which should neither be understated nor camouflaged 2/x
The fact that the gazillion new IOUs #UST has issued as a partial (and temporary) recompense for this will come with artificially low interest rates is absolutely NO cause for cheer: in fact, quite the converse. 3/x
Read 7 tweets
@RBI decision to permanently write down the Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital raised by @YESBANK and, effectively, putting the entire INR 10,800 crs worth of AT1 at risk. Now @NipponIndiaMF, @FTIIndia, @utimutualfund, @ibhomeloans, @SBIPensionFunds & others will approach courts.
In conformity with the extant regulations issued by @RBI based on the Basel framework. No accountholder shall be entitled to get any compensation from the Reconstructed bank on account of the changes occurred in the Reconstructed bank by virtue of the Scheme: RBI
Ironically, as per one of the AT1 instrument memorandum issued by @YESBANK states clearly that unless #equity is Zero, #bond holders can’t be Zero.

#investors should not press the panic button. Though keep an eye on further developments. @fifaindiaorg @cafemutual @networkfp
Read 3 tweets
Lets talk about #Argentina and the #IMF. Specifically, lets talk about the biggest IMF #Bailout in #History...
Before we start talking about #Argentina & how the #IMF has extended to them a #Bailout that is by far the biggest in the organisation's history, let us first appreciate what the functions of the IMF are...
The #IMF’s main goal is to ensure #stability of the #international #monetary & #financial #system. It helps resolve crises, and works with its 189 member countries to promote #growth & alleviate #poverty...
Read 12 tweets
As we continue detailing our key themes for the year, we’d note that in our view: 5) #fiscal policy is a right-tail #risk (not left-tail) in 2020; and 6) the negative #bond yields in #Europe and Japan may well turn to negative returns by year end.
While a thoroughly divided #government in the U.S. during an #election year is quite likely to limit the possibility of additional #fiscal spend here, the story in #Europe is a bit different.
Increasingly, we think new leadership at the @ecb, and legitimate questions surrounding the efficacy of the negative/zero interest rate policy, #NIRP, could result in an evolving focus toward #fiscal spend by governments. And Europe could certainly use the boost! Image
Read 7 tweets
#China’s responses to the shocks of the 2008 #GFC and its endeavors to rectify market order have led to significant reforms and developments in the financial industry in China, according to the paper “China’s Financial Development: A Global Perspective”: press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/pres…
Policy suggestions put forward in the paper for future development of China’s financial sector:
1. The #banking sector should continue to play a leading role in China’s financial system for the foreseeable future.
2. Universal banking will be the preferred option.
3. The major tasks of banking regulatory reforms should be to strengthen capital, behavioural and functional regulations.
4. Increasing the proportion of direct financing, particularly equity financing,
Read 5 tweets
#Moodys has pulled down its growth forecast for FY19 to 5.8%. Only surprise is why it’s not even lower. In the past year growth has collapsed from 8% to 5%. /1
@threadreaderapp

#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA #NCLT #growth
On the other hand #CPI is now at 4.6%. The laxmanrekha of 4% has been breached. A mix of drought, floods and unseasonal rain is driving food prices up. Core #inflation continues to fall to 3.7% reflecting the slowdown. /2
#India #GDP #RBI #bonds #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA
The wisemen and women of the economy have only one mantra - Cut, Pray, Hope. When in doubt cut rates.135 bps done but transmission is limited. We are told don’t look at nominal, real rates are still high. A single large cut is required. /3
#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation
Read 16 tweets

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