Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #bond

Most recents (24)

DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022

#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).

2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket Image
Read 53 tweets
🧵 Is the American Dream dead? - a tweetstorm

This is a brain dump of .@RaoulGMI's 30+ years of knowledge, how the world works, and how his macro framework fits into it all ⤵️
1/ There's no denying that we're in a mess!

By the Law of Unintended Consequences, every time we try to fix A, we create problems B, C, D, E, etc.

We hardly understand these new problems unless there's hindsight to connect the dots...
2/ [PART I: #HISTORY]

So, how the hell did we get here?

Let's start by looking at the peak of the #British Empire:

It was the world's largest realm. But as with every empire, trying to control so many people across the globe has its price & #debt weakened its structure...
Read 81 tweets
Bonds are very simple #debt instruments, yet they
account for a whopping $120T market size globally and are being bridged to DeFi at a jaw-dropping speed.

A 🧵on everything you need to know about on-chain bonds and how to invest in them.

(Not Financial Advice.)
Warm-up: What is a bond?

A #bond is a debt instrument that allows the issuer (borrower) to raise money from investors (lenders) willing to lend them money for a certain amount of time.
Three main types of bonds are:

◦ Corporate bonds, issued by companies.
◦ Municipal bonds, issued by states and municipalities.
◦ Government (sovereign) bonds such as those issued by the U.S. Treasury or other forms of sovereign debt.
Read 18 tweets
Why does the #bonds crash signal further pressure for #stocks?
(& why do rate hikes take so long to show in earnings?)

High inflation & rate hikes transmit through the economy with a range of 1st to 3rd order effects with varying lags. Lets map those out:

PART 1 of 2 threads:
This is complicated to map given various dynamics, sectors & lags, particularly with 280 char limits! But lets give it a go anyway. This is descriptive to help you think through aspects & trades you may not have yet considered

Theres 2 PARTS to this thread due to length
Direct impacts:

When rates are hiked in response to #CPI, theres 2 1st order effects that are fairly contemporaneous. First #bond prices fall as they are the direct inverse of their rate. Higher Fed Funds, higher rates across the curve, lower bond prices
h/t @leadlagreport chart
Read 18 tweets
I was asked about why there are differences in #TEDSPREAD values/plotting, so here’s what you should know. The acronym “TED” is derived from #TREASURIES minus #EURODOLLARS & expresses the difference between theoretically risk free yield & yield with embedded credit risk (cont)…
…classically TED spreads are plotted using same term cash #TREASURY bills against #LIBOR yields. Most often the terms used are 1M & 3M month tenors, though overnight tenors can also be used. Of course any risk free rate can be used such as #SOFR, as in my previous post (cont)…
If you’re wanting to trade #TED spreads using futures and/or you don’t have access to an #EIKON or Bloomberg terminal for cash plots you can construct/trade a viable version of them synthetically using 2Y #TREASURY & #EURODOLLAR futures which is very common (cont)… $ZT $ED $GE
Read 19 tweets
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022

#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After making reversal at H/S neckline in early Aug, US 10Y Yield #bond broke out from Feb'11 high 3.73% and have held up strongly for about a week. This month, yield has gone up +20%, bad for risk and long duration assets

#StockMarket Image
2. US 02Y Yield #bond broke out resistance 3.7% and past 4% strongly after Fed Reserve hawkish announcement and never look back. This month yield has gone up more than +22%

#StockMarket Image
Read 49 tweets
Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.

Read on🧵
When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.

Late 2016 DMs in Norwegian to a friend: Image
But why am I not linking Twitter screenshots? Well, I haven't been on here for even two years yet, so my oldest conversations are in private FB chats with friends and family, as those were the only people I tried to warn.

2018 chats about #Euribor annual hedging puts re #ECB: Image
Read 19 tweets
🎉🏆 GIANT LEAP TOWARDS NEXT-LEVEL DEFI 🏆🎉

@ethereum APPROVED OUR ERC-3475 STANDARD ✅

You can now fully customise your #blockchain #bond & we made them tradable!

Gateway to new possibilities in #DeFi:
bit.ly/3PMHs2Y

Let’s see what #DeBond’s tech can do!
🤓🧵⬇️
EIP-3475 is a new standard #smartcontract interface created by #DebondProtocol

eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-3475

It’s an interface for #tokenized obligations with abstract on-chain metadata storage

@VitalikButerin
@dabit3
@PatrickAlphaC
@cz_binance
@saylor
Callable #bonds are now possible!

Store more bond information, customise them — just like in the traditional finance

But now, fully on #blockchain

A whole new world market of market opportunities
🌍📈🚀

@a16z
@AlamedaTrabucco
@TimDraper
@polychaincap
@tradeparadigm
Read 7 tweets
1/4 Trend Precognition made perfect calls at the start of a 10 Day, 725% rally on @Barn_Bridge coin #BOND and then signaled SHORT for a 53% dump.

Note: The strength of the signal has no relation to the size of the move, it only indicates the probability of an accurate call.... Image
2/4 Through the cycle, the MTF Mean Reversion indi gave a bunch of #TradingSignals. MTF has an impressive hit rate, but I don't want to create the illusion that these indicators nail it 100% of the time. ImageImage
3/4 Spot checking through MTF signals you can see that even some of the higher entries scalped profits quickly before the cascade continued down. This is why we choose lower TP targets in these market conditions, and it illustrates why #riskmanagement is critical to your success. Image
Read 4 tweets
Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
🧵
1/n
For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.

2/n
Even the food we eat requires them. We have not improved the living standards of all our teeming billions on the quasi-Neolithic methods of farming so beloved of the ignorant #Green metromarxists.

3/n
Read 8 tweets
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of #runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet.
As previously suggested by the #Fed’s March minutes, the pace of runoff was confirmed today as $95 billion/month ($60 billion in U.S. #Treasuries and $35 billion in Agency #MBS, with a three-month phase-in period.
Also as expected, the statement reiterated that the #FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” underscoring the seriousness of #Fed policymakers in getting #inflation and inflation expectations under control.
Read 16 tweets
A Thread on Debt to GDP Ratio 🧵



The debt-to-GDP ratio compares a country's debt to its total economic output measure by GDP for the year.


This ratio tells how the economy is doing and allows comparison.

Lets Look at where the world stands



@sahilkapoor @dugalira
What does % Mean



>100 : Country not producing enough to pay debt



100 : Just enough to pay off debt



<100: Enough economic output to make debt payments
If The % > 100: Higher risk of default and country will get loan at higher interest rate.

That further perpetuates the cycle by increasing debt —> looming financial crisis

Like the Hedonic Treadmill
Read 11 tweets
It’s Monday and while we might have all woken up today feeling like #ChrisRock after the #Oscars the markets lacked a punch last week. Both the #Sensex and #Nifty remained unchanged and saw a fall of less than 1%, to close at 57,632 pts & 17,173 pts respectively. (1/5)
#NiftyMetal and #Energy indices were the outliers and saw a jump of 5.1% and 2.1% respectively. Not terribly surprising considering wars, high commodity prices and global uncertainty. The S&P 500 and #NASDAQ had a good week and closed at 1.8% & 2.3% ↑ respectively. (2/5)
The #Nikkei was 4.9% ↑. It’s been making significant recoveries after falling to its lowest point in a year, on 9th March. In India, #Commodity prices are up, #Energy prices are up, and soon the RBI may not have any option but to take #InterestRates up. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
A significant #bond #buying opportunity is approaching.
As bond yields surge, history and #techncial analysis suggest that we should look at bonds for both #capital appreciation and a #risk hedge.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
In Dec 2018, we wrote why Jeff Gundlach was likely incorrect about 6% yields.
“Rates are at levels that historically led to some sort of event either economic, financial, or both, When that occurs, rates will go to 1.5% and closer to Zero.“
We got to 0.5%
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
The surge in 2-year #bond #yields is unprecedented. Historically, such a surge in short-term yields coincides with either #recessions or #market events. With yields now 4-std deviations above its 52-week moving average, such has denoted peaks previously.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
Read 6 tweets
What is the investment case for #alternative asset investing in a nutshell?

Here are some of the key considerations in this thread 👇

1. For many decades, the conventional wisdom around #investing has comprised a roughly 60%/40% portfolio of equities and bonds
2. However, the world currently finds itself in a tough position - #equity valuations have run incredibly hard for a long time, but at the same time #investors will have a hard time recycling from equity into debt due to historically low interest rates
3. So what do you do if you’re worried that your historic way of thinking isn’t going to hold up in the new world? THIS is where alternatives play a role for a portion (not all) of your #portfolio
Read 9 tweets
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore, @cnbcKaren & the #SquawkBox team for having me on this morning's show.

We discussed #bonds & #centralbanks, touched on #supplychains & talked of #Growth's vulnerability, #commodities' appeal.

Slide deck follows:-

1/14
Is your box still backed up in port? How much does the onward haulage cost? What happens to #freight rates after #LNY/#Beijing2022?
2/14
The bet is that #energy cannot *possibly* rise as far and fast this year as last, but what about all the other inputs? To what extent are these and other costs yet to be passed on?

#PPI #CPI

3/14
Read 15 tweets
CROONICLE: What is the Difference Between Bail and Bond? croonicle.com/2022/01/what-i… #bail #bond
CROONICLE: Typing Jobs from Home for Working Mothers croonicle.com/2022/01/typing… #onlinejob #workingmom #workingfromhome
CROONICLE: The Concept of a Great Customer Service croonicle.com/2022/01/the-co… #CustomerService #customersupport
Read 6 tweets
There has been ample talk about an upcoming market #crash ever since, well, the previous crash.

People point to, among other things, Shiller’s CAPE ratio, at a 38 multiple (second highest ever).

How do we know if we really are in a #bubble? A thread is due.
Let’s dive in👇🧵
1/ Is there anything we can use to tell whether a market is indeed in a bubble? To borrow a quote from The Big Short:

Lawrence Fields: “Actually, no one can see a bubble... that's what makes it a bubble.”

Michael Burry: “That's dumb, Lawrence. There are always markers.”
2/ Let’s examine those “markers” by revisiting what the top authority on market irrationality and exuberance has to say about it – Nobel winner @RobertJShiller

His book Irrational Exuberance anticipated both the 2000 dot-com bubble burst and the 2006 housing bubble burst.
Read 26 tweets
With all the talk about #Bond and fact vs fiction, here are a few examples of fiction shaping fact

1. @CIA director Allen Dulles loved Bond's gadgets so much he instructed CIA to replicate - for real - as many as they could...
He claimed CIA successfully managed to make a spring-loaded poison knife (as seen in From Russia with Love)

but failed to make a homing-beacon for a car (as seen in Goldeneye)

source: direct.mit.edu/jcws/article/1…
2. A British foreign secretary once turned down an MI6 operation to engineer regime change in Abu Dhabi on the grounds that it was too much of a "James Bond scheme"

source:
amazon.co.uk/Disrupt-Deny-S…
Read 8 tweets
In a quickfire interview with GQ, Daniel Craig speaks about his favourite Bond gadgets, the injuries he sustained in the line of duty and what he hopes his legacy as the world’s most famous spy will be. #GQVsTheUniverse trib.al/sJ5XitU
The reigning 007, Mr Daniel Craig, takes on all the questions fans really want to know in #GQVsTheUniverse: bit.ly/GQDanielCraigV…
#NoTimeToDie
“I hope that #Bond has changed a lot while I have been a part of him… I don’t judge the characters I play, I try and let the audience do that.”
Watch the full #GQVsTheUniverse video here: bit.ly/GQDanielCraigV… #NoTimeToDie
Read 12 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 03/21/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/03/21/dai…
Debunking Piketty and the Left's Celebrity Economists | Mises Wire

mises.org/wire/debunking…

#Piketty #debunk
How a Small Rise in Bond Yields May Create a Financial Crisis | Mises Wire

mises.org/wire/how-small…

#FinancialCrisis #bond
Read 10 tweets
A Thread 🧵on how bond yields impact stock market ?

Must read for beginners in #StockMarket.

(RT to maximize reach.)

#Bonds #BondYields #StockMarket #Investing
What is #bond ?

Bonds are issued by governments and corporations when they want to raise money. By buying a bond, investor is giving the issuer a loan, and issuer agrees to pay the investor back the face value of the loan on a specific date, and to pay periodic interest as well.
What is bond yield ?

Bond yield, on the other hand, is the return that an investor gets on that bond or on a particular government security.

#Investing #StockMarket #Bonds
Read 8 tweets
#BOND WATCH!

🚨🚨MEGA ALERT!🚨🚨

#USA 30 YEAR REAL YIELD GONE POSITIVE!

@HustlerHindu reminded me i once said;
"The only thing i fear is US real rates going positive"

We're here.

#WallstreetSilver #Silversqueeze $PSLV #PSLVChallenge #fintwit @WallStreetSLVR @Galactic_Trader
The reason i said that is simple.

"Once real rates go positive, they won't be able to be stopped."

"When real rates go positive the negative rates/gold correlation will break, as it's not causation"

"Rather going up with yields going down, gold will go up with yields going up"
Read 4 tweets
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.

I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look

1/x

#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal
Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.

2/x
Not that they're alone in their folly, of course. The #ECB is outodoing them handsomely, while the #bankofengland is breaking records stretching back to its founding, 327 years ago.
#centralbanks
3/x
Read 10 tweets

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