Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
Author of the 'Cantillon Effects' newsletter. Independent research & content, conferences, public speaking. Unconventional Wisdom and Original Thinking
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Jun 8 10 tweets 3 min read
A disparate cluster of interests -some venal, some ideological, some quasi-religious- have found common expression in the issue of #Climate™️. Too much, intellectually, financially, emotionally, politically has been sunk into it to allow for honest discussion.
1/x Even minor scepticism or attempts at technical or economic discussion start by begging the question of whether ANY of this game is worth the candle; all include the Insh’allah of “...while climate change is accelerated and we must (!) address the problem at once...”
Jun 5 5 tweets 2 min read
Smith, for all his virtues, here begs the question of what determines prices. If it were always simply at the whim of the producer why would such individuals and firms limit themselves to (1.05)^n? Why not 1.1? 1.2? 2? 200? 2000?

If each stage could only reap its 5%, why... ...would each not strive to acquire all those identifiably up- and downstream of it, collapsing the very division of labour Smith so correctly lauded?

And what of the VALUE of these so easily dictated profits? If the final price rises exponentially, the entrepreneur’s return...
Jun 3 4 tweets 1 min read
Now, children, ask yourselves what the Treasury will do with that $1.4tln.
(Hint: it will not be locked in a vault in Iron Mountain)
Next, ask what the successive orders of recipients of that $1.4tln will do with their booty.
(Hint 2: no mattresses will be stuffed) .... So, class, you can see that -to the extent the banks do *not* create extra credit to accommodate the USTs- we will DIVERT ‘liquidity’, not destroy it - and some of the very same Co.s you’re buying today will see revenues increase even as others’ will fall....
May 8 15 tweets 12 min read
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
#FederalReserve Image The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
2/n Image
Feb 14 15 tweets 10 min read
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @steve_sedgwick for the chat on #SquawkBox this morning!

Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
First of all, it's #ValentinesDay and SOMEONE is going to get massacred today when the #CPI is released, so naturally:-

Feb 6 11 tweets 4 min read
Agreed. The singular advantage of money as a near-universally acceptable, reliable medium of exchange is that it breaks the need to know and trust counterparts all along the chain of trade & production. 1/x This not only expands -and hence enriches- the network of exchange (think Adam Smith or “I, Pencil”) but removes node-occupying middlemen and toll-exactors. Efficiency increases, but transparency and fairness, too. 2/x
Sep 30, 2022 14 tweets 8 min read
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for this morning's chat on #SquawkBox.

I did TRY to find something positive to say - honest, folks!

Following are the notes I sent the team before the show:-
🧵1/x Ok. So here goes...

Aug 16, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read
Sadly, the delusion that government is a choir of seraphim, all celestial virtue & superhuman foresight is hard to dispel; not least since ALL parties exploit this, all teachers are themselves trained to it.

Now just imagine the whole country run by London’s train driver unions! Most here will have no memory of the 70s -the never-ending stoppages, strikes & flying pickets; the ‘closed shop’, restrictive practices, collective bargaining, ‘beer & sandwiches’ deal-making. The poor service, culminating in the unburied dead, the garbage-filled streets...
May 13, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read
The world today🧵
The US is a bankrupt liberal arts college being run into the ground by sophomore, social studies snowflakes while the frat boys have broken into the arms locker and are shooting up the neighboutrhood, The Dean, meanwhile, can't remember where he put his glasses. Europe: a weird mix of eager Bonapartism & a Judaean suicide cult from the 'Life of Brian'.
Worsula Fonda-Lyin' as Agrippina: Verhofstadt as Saint Just.

Gutting its own economy but now presuming to re-order the Pacific as well as poking the Bear on its (ever-expanding) borders
May 13, 2022 8 tweets 5 min read
Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
1/n For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.

Feb 13, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
All you pointy-head PhD types and other academics now issuing mea culpas for ‘not understanding’ the #inflation dynamic: we warned you from the very off that more $$ + less supply + capital destruction/impairment would only NOT lead there if the QE/fiscal flood ...
..held perforce partly in abeyance, were later, upon cessation of ‘house arrest’, used to pay down debt & so self-extinguish itself.

If that unlikelihood did NOT eventuate - if Hyper-#QE were not terminated/reversed -how was the present bleak situation NOT to be foreseen??

Jan 19, 2022 15 tweets 14 min read
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore, @cnbcKaren & the #SquawkBox team for having me on this morning's show.

We discussed #bonds & #centralbanks, touched on #supplychains & talked of #Growth's vulnerability, #commodities' appeal.

Slide deck follows:-

1/14 Is your box still backed up in port? How much does the onward haulage cost? What happens to #freight rates after #LNY/#Beijing2022?
Jan 14, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Alternatively, ask how the vast monetary overhang, created over the past two years, is going to be dissipated.

If not frozen in place as savings, or used to pay down debt, or miraculously promoting new production, it will continue to raise prices until its real value levels out. Unspoken in that last is the added complication that the rising tide will NOT lift all boats at once. Cantillon effects will create undeserving winners. Relative price distortions will misdirect capital & effort. Secondary credit booms(& busts) will be seeded.
Dec 16, 2021 13 tweets 6 min read
Many thanks to my old friend @steve_sedgwick & @SquawkCNBC for having me on this morning.
What did we talk about? What else but #inflation & the #Fed & the outook for next year?

This 12-tweet thread will post the slides I prepared for the show:-

1/x Like all crimes, #inflation needs means, motive & opportunity. Here's a lttle of the second:-

Nov 24, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
If you’d wanted the independent thinkers, the freedom lovers, those sceptical of state action & distrustful of its corporate cronies, to reveal themselves so that they could vilified, segregated, punished -and possibly culled- you couldn’t improve on this whole #COVID19 theatre The constant lies; the imposition of one failed measure after another; the *repetition* & reinforcement of those errors; the ever-lengthening time-scale over which they’ll be imposed; the ineffective genetech; the “Plague of the Unspiked” Big Lie -
Aug 30, 2021 10 tweets 8 min read
1/Thanks to @steve_sedgwick and @cnbcKaren for having me on @CNBC #SquawkBox this morning.

We talked about - what else? - #inflation and #centralbanks and whether the #Fed & peers are 'making an historic mistake', in Steve's words.

A few charts & comments for background:- 2/It's trite to say the jump in price indices is *all* attributable to a 'basis effect' when they've accelerated so much THIS year.
Jul 16, 2021 14 tweets 17 min read
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.

What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!

I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
Jun 15, 2021 7 tweets 5 min read
@Halsrethink Bill is however subject to the 'productivity' fallacy of interest rates. That the natural rate is low because we supposedly have nothing worth investing in and hence funnelling money into (usually poorly managed) public projects would help raise it. @Halsrethink Contra that, there are many obvious instances of the misuse of too much too easy credit in so many fields. It also overlooks that genuine productivity gains may be limited because 'hurdle' rates have been elevated by all manner of govt interventions - hardly to be cured by more!
Feb 16, 2021 10 tweets 10 min read
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.

I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look


#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.

Feb 8, 2021 8 tweets 5 min read
In the 2021's first issue of #Cantillon Effects, we discussed the #inflation which now pervades our lives: not just the narrow, disputed one relating to goods prices, but the inflation of rhetoric, passions, tribalism & despotism.

Over this thread, we'll present our case:-
1/x Replacing the "public square" with the "cyber swarm" has not been conducive to reason or civility, for all that it has opened up new possibilities of disseminating news and opinion.
Sep 3, 2020 11 tweets 8 min read
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for having me on the show this morning.

Here's a short thread of the notes - entitled, "Time to Get Real?" - which I put together in preparation.
They should hopefully be self-explanatory:-

#SquawkBox #CNBC #macro #equities #commodities You've heard it here before: pay out or pay down is a big part of the #inflation equation:-