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Author of the 'Cantillon Effects' newsletter. Independent research & content, conferences, public speaking. Unconventional Wisdom and Original Thinking
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May 13 8 tweets 3 min read
The world today🧵
The US is a bankrupt liberal arts college being run into the ground by sophomore, social studies snowflakes while the frat boys have broken into the arms locker and are shooting up the neighboutrhood, The Dean, meanwhile, can't remember where he put his glasses. Europe: a weird mix of eager Bonapartism & a Judaean suicide cult from the 'Life of Brian'.
Worsula Fonda-Lyin' as Agrippina: Verhofstadt as Saint Just.

Gutting its own economy but now presuming to re-order the Pacific as well as poking the Bear on its (ever-expanding) borders
May 13 8 tweets 5 min read
Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
1/n For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.

Feb 13 6 tweets 3 min read
All you pointy-head PhD types and other academics now issuing mea culpas for ‘not understanding’ the #inflation dynamic: we warned you from the very off that more $$ + less supply + capital destruction/impairment would only NOT lead there if the QE/fiscal flood ...
..held perforce partly in abeyance, were later, upon cessation of ‘house arrest’, used to pay down debt & so self-extinguish itself.

If that unlikelihood did NOT eventuate - if Hyper-#QE were not terminated/reversed -how was the present bleak situation NOT to be foreseen??

Jan 19 15 tweets 14 min read
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore, @cnbcKaren & the #SquawkBox team for having me on this morning's show.

We discussed #bonds & #centralbanks, touched on #supplychains & talked of #Growth's vulnerability, #commodities' appeal.

Slide deck follows:-

1/14 Is your box still backed up in port? How much does the onward haulage cost? What happens to #freight rates after #LNY/#Beijing2022?
Jan 14 4 tweets 2 min read
Alternatively, ask how the vast monetary overhang, created over the past two years, is going to be dissipated.

If not frozen in place as savings, or used to pay down debt, or miraculously promoting new production, it will continue to raise prices until its real value levels out. Unspoken in that last is the added complication that the rising tide will NOT lift all boats at once. Cantillon effects will create undeserving winners. Relative price distortions will misdirect capital & effort. Secondary credit booms(& busts) will be seeded.
Dec 16, 2021 13 tweets 6 min read
Many thanks to my old friend @steve_sedgwick & @SquawkCNBC for having me on this morning.
What did we talk about? What else but #inflation & the #Fed & the outook for next year?

This 12-tweet thread will post the slides I prepared for the show:-

1/x Like all crimes, #inflation needs means, motive & opportunity. Here's a lttle of the second:-

Nov 24, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
If you’d wanted the independent thinkers, the freedom lovers, those sceptical of state action & distrustful of its corporate cronies, to reveal themselves so that they could vilified, segregated, punished -and possibly culled- you couldn’t improve on this whole #COVID19 theatre The constant lies; the imposition of one failed measure after another; the *repetition* & reinforcement of those errors; the ever-lengthening time-scale over which they’ll be imposed; the ineffective genetech; the “Plague of the Unspiked” Big Lie -
Aug 30, 2021 10 tweets 8 min read
1/Thanks to @steve_sedgwick and @cnbcKaren for having me on @CNBC #SquawkBox this morning.

We talked about - what else? - #inflation and #centralbanks and whether the #Fed & peers are 'making an historic mistake', in Steve's words.

A few charts & comments for background:- 2/It's trite to say the jump in price indices is *all* attributable to a 'basis effect' when they've accelerated so much THIS year.
Jul 16, 2021 14 tweets 17 min read
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.

What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!

I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
Jun 15, 2021 7 tweets 5 min read
@Halsrethink Bill is however subject to the 'productivity' fallacy of interest rates. That the natural rate is low because we supposedly have nothing worth investing in and hence funnelling money into (usually poorly managed) public projects would help raise it. @Halsrethink Contra that, there are many obvious instances of the misuse of too much too easy credit in so many fields. It also overlooks that genuine productivity gains may be limited because 'hurdle' rates have been elevated by all manner of govt interventions - hardly to be cured by more!
Feb 16, 2021 10 tweets 10 min read
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.

I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look


#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.

Feb 8, 2021 8 tweets 5 min read
In the 2021's first issue of #Cantillon Effects, we discussed the #inflation which now pervades our lives: not just the narrow, disputed one relating to goods prices, but the inflation of rhetoric, passions, tribalism & despotism.

Over this thread, we'll present our case:-
1/x Replacing the "public square" with the "cyber swarm" has not been conducive to reason or civility, for all that it has opened up new possibilities of disseminating news and opinion.
Sep 3, 2020 11 tweets 8 min read
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for having me on the show this morning.

Here's a short thread of the notes - entitled, "Time to Get Real?" - which I put together in preparation.
They should hopefully be self-explanatory:-

#SquawkBox #CNBC #macro #equities #commodities You've heard it here before: pay out or pay down is a big part of the #inflation equation:-
Aug 21, 2020 5 tweets 5 min read
...though basically unchanged in 3 1/2 years

#Housing And, those good ole #FederalReserve policies again mean the monthly cost of an average #NewHome (approximated here) is back where it was 15 years ago...

#housing #QE
Jul 9, 2020 14 tweets 13 min read
#China stocks roar on, with #CSI300 up ~20% in little more than a week as (official) #margin debt climbs Y150bln to touch Y1.3 trillion - levels only seen in the peak months of 2015's madness.
Worth noting a rejection here could mean the Jan'19 formation is complete.
#SHFE #SHSZ As the money floods into #China #equities, #bonds bear the brunt. Wealth Managers are the MOMO traders de jour "Our company's mixed products can have 60% allocations to #stock, but now we're at 70-80%. This is a normal phenomenon [sic]," said one.

Jul 7, 2020 12 tweets 11 min read
1/Thanks very much to my old friend @steve_sedgwick @SquawkBoxEurope for the chat this morning 2/We looked at #Growth v #Value, the #US v ROW, we touched on #bonds and borrowing, #money supply, #inflation, #lockdown, #commodities & #gold - all in under 10 mins!
Jun 28, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
The pernicious facet of this is that a small coterie of CEOs are not punishing the Tech oligolpoly (which many cheer, if only from Schadenfreude) for being too #Left-biased but for not being censorious enough.
Did the C-Suite Sanhedrin ever consult shareholders or ask customers? This is is the curse of virtue-signalling ‘on office time’, using Other People’s Money (property) & generally acting ultra vires to gain plaudits from the narrow circle of one’s peers by pandering to extremists & activists.
Jun 23, 2020 13 tweets 6 min read
In a world where people still starve (though thankfully proportionately fewer over time) and material needs in general are unsated, there can be no #savingsglut. There CAN be misallocations of saving -due to corrupted price signals or corrupted polities, or both- but that’s... ...a very different matter.
Secondly, ‘saving’ is supposed to represent an available resource -whether for consumption or production, whether material or human. It is NOT something which magically appears when the #centralbank & its minions sit behind a keyboard...
May 30, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read
Modern politicians match Talleyrand’s jibe that “The Bourbons have forgotten nothing and learned nothing”
Having needlessly crashed the economy, they now presume to rescue it with New Deals, Bridges-to-Nowhere, #Green boondoggles & ‘shovel-ready’ jobs.
#COVID19 So, let’s repeat the errors of the 30s; let’s kowtow to the #Climate lobby; let’s ignore #Japan’s three decades of ‘infrastructure’ failure (#China’s more recent efforts, too); and, risibly, let’s echo #Obama’s corrupted & ineffective ‘shovel-ready’ nonsense of 2008.
May 18, 2020 8 tweets 4 min read
Climbing out of the woodwork are all the usual Malthusian birds of ill-omen, seeking to harness today's justifiable pessimism to their #Green bandwagon and so exploit the disorientation of a people too shell-shocked to fully realise the extent of what has been taken from them
"We are at the #tippingpoint," many will intone and so must adapt to their Dystopian visions of a #NewNormal - a permanent State of Fear in which life will henceforth be anything BUT 'normal'.
May 3, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
Merryn obviously doesn’t see the irony of holding up 1930s America as providing examples of government programmes (whether under Hoover or Roosevelt) which worked, swiftly, fairly, and with few malign consequences.

1/x But, no, debt is NOT the answer.

The state arbitrarily (possibly, illegally) shut businesses down: to demand repayment is like extracting a kidnap ransom by instalment.

So, what to do? 2/x