Were I the self-publicising type (viz., distaff-side economists "COUGH!"), my *Cantillon Consulting Rule* would be: Everytime NAPM/#ISM less the 50 break-even loses a cumulative 20+ points in a year, we get a recession. Only false reading in 70 yrs, the '96 auto strike.
#PMI Yet, even as the sector languishes, as per the #PMI, #manufacturing #construction contines to set new records.

And, this time, we can't even blame super low interest rates or the kind of laxity in providing funding to whcih we've become accustomed of late.

🤔

The point YOU miss is that the US govt (Fed+ State/Local) commandeers $10 trillions' worth of scarce resources each year (BEA Govt GFS), more than HALF of Private Net National Product (BEA 1.7.5 & 1.1.5).
The deficit amounts to $1.8tln pa; 2 1/2 x net private biz investment.
1/x

https://twitter.com/wbmosler/status/1780189267882340733

Of course, to you Double-#MMT Heads, the State's voracity, waste & corruption are doing a vast service to the poor souls whose "savings" are thereby eaten up & whose income & capital formation, both, are diverted to cost-plus mandates, subsidies, nest-feathering & boondoggles 2/x

If there is ONE lesson to be drawn from the past two years of conflict reporting in both the #Ukraine & now #Gaza it is that, even with countless mobile device cameras at hand, it is still impossible to penetrate the lies, deception & propaganda to reach the verity of what- -is actually taking place; of who is doing what to whom and why. The old, Napoleonic simile, "to lie like a bulletin", still holds true - "citizen journalists", or no.

If there is a second lesson, it is that this proves no impediment to the generation of MSM red-top rage or-

A disparate cluster of interests -some venal, some ideological, some quasi-religious- have found common expression in the issue of #Climate™️. Too much, intellectually, financially, emotionally, politically has been sunk into it to allow for honest discussion.
1/x

https://twitter.com/heatpolicyrich/status/1666337089170882562

Even minor scepticism or attempts at technical or economic discussion start by begging the question of whether ANY of this game is worth the candle; all include the Insh’allah of “...while climate change is accelerated and we must (!) address the problem at once...”
2/x

Smith, for all his virtues, here begs the question of what determines prices. If it were always simply at the whim of the producer why would such individuals and firms limit themselves to (1.05)^n? Why not 1.1? 1.2? 2? 200? 2000?

If each stage could only reap its 5%, why...

https://twitter.com/isabellamweber/status/1664387403748986889

...would each not strive to acquire all those identifiably up- and downstream of it, collapsing the very division of labour Smith so correctly lauded?

And what of the VALUE of these so easily dictated profits? If the final price rises exponentially, the entrepreneur’s return...

Now, children, ask yourselves what the Treasury will do with that $1.4tln.
(Hint: it will not be locked in a vault in Iron Mountain)
Next, ask what the successive orders of recipients of that $1.4tln will do with their booty.
(Hint 2: no mattresses will be stuffed) ....

https://twitter.com/rjrcapital/status/1664728578955550722

So, class, you can see that -to the extent the banks do *not* create extra credit to accommodate the USTs- we will DIVERT ‘liquidity’, not destroy it - and some of the very same Co.s you’re buying today will see revenues increase even as others’ will fall....

Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
1/n
#FRB
#FederalReserve

https://twitter.com/CantillonCH/status/1655472894116347904

The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
2/n

Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @steve_sedgwick for the chat on #SquawkBox this morning!

Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
1/x First of all, it's #ValentinesDay and SOMEONE is going to get massacred today when the #CPI is released, so naturally:-

2/x

Agreed. The singular advantage of money as a near-universally acceptable, reliable medium of exchange is that it breaks the need to know and trust counterparts all along the chain of trade & production. 1/x

https://twitter.com/f_wintersberger/status/1622490497741647873

This not only expands -and hence enriches- the network of exchange (think Adam Smith or “I, Pencil”) but removes node-occupying middlemen and toll-exactors. Efficiency increases, but transparency and fairness, too. 2/x

Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for this morning's chat on #SquawkBox.

I did TRY to find something positive to say - honest, folks!

Following are the notes I sent the team before the show:-
🧵1/x Ok. So here goes...

2/x

Sadly, the delusion that government is a choir of seraphim, all celestial virtue & superhuman foresight is hard to dispel; not least since ALL parties exploit this, all teachers are themselves trained to it.

Now just imagine the whole country run by London’s train driver unions!

https://twitter.com/MahyarTousi/status/1559220277338316801

Most here will have no memory of the 70s -the never-ending stoppages, strikes & flying pickets; the ‘closed shop’, restrictive practices, collective bargaining, ‘beer & sandwiches’ deal-making. The poor service, culminating in the unburied dead, the garbage-filled streets...

The world today🧵
The US is a bankrupt liberal arts college being run into the ground by sophomore, social studies snowflakes while the frat boys have broken into the arms locker and are shooting up the neighboutrhood, The Dean, meanwhile, can't remember where he put his glasses. Europe: a weird mix of eager Bonapartism & a Judaean suicide cult from the 'Life of Brian'.
Worsula Fonda-Lyin' as Agrippina: Verhofstadt as Saint Just.

Gutting its own economy but now presuming to re-order the Pacific as well as poking the Bear on its (ever-expanding) borders

Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
🧵
1/n

https://twitter.com/CantillonCH/status/1525000072261423107

For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.

2/n

All you pointy-head PhD types and other academics now issuing mea culpas for ‘not understanding’ the #inflation dynamic: we warned you from the very off that more $$ + less supply + capital destruction/impairment would only NOT lead there if the QE/fiscal flood ...
1/5 ..held perforce partly in abeyance, were later, upon cessation of ‘house arrest’, used to pay down debt & so self-extinguish itself.

If that unlikelihood did NOT eventuate - if Hyper-#QE were not terminated/reversed -how was the present bleak situation NOT to be foreseen??

2/5

Thanks to @GeoffCutmore, @cnbcKaren & the #SquawkBox team for having me on this morning's show.

We discussed #bonds & #centralbanks, touched on #supplychains & talked of #Growth's vulnerability, #commodities' appeal.

Slide deck follows:-

1/14 Is your box still backed up in port? How much does the onward haulage cost? What happens to #freight rates after #LNY/#Beijing2022?
2/14

Alternatively, ask how the vast monetary overhang, created over the past two years, is going to be dissipated.

If not frozen in place as savings, or used to pay down debt, or miraculously promoting new production, it will continue to raise prices until its real value levels out.

https://twitter.com/agurevich23/status/1482093309052866562

Unspoken in that last is the added complication that the rising tide will NOT lift all boats at once. Cantillon effects will create undeserving winners. Relative price distortions will misdirect capital & effort. Secondary credit booms(& busts) will be seeded.

Many thanks to my old friend @steve_sedgwick & @SquawkCNBC for having me on this morning.
What did we talk about? What else but #inflation & the #Fed & the outook for next year?

This 12-tweet thread will post the slides I prepared for the show:-

1/x Like all crimes, #inflation needs means, motive & opportunity. Here's a lttle of the second:-

2/x

If you’d wanted the independent thinkers, the freedom lovers, those sceptical of state action & distrustful of its corporate cronies, to reveal themselves so that they could vilified, segregated, punished -and possibly culled- you couldn’t improve on this whole #COVID19 theatre The constant lies; the imposition of one failed measure after another; the *repetition* & reinforcement of those errors; the ever-lengthening time-scale over which they’ll be imposed; the ineffective genetech; the “Plague of the Unspiked” Big Lie -

1/Thanks to @steve_sedgwick and @cnbcKaren for having me on @CNBC #SquawkBox this morning.

We talked about - what else? - #inflation and #centralbanks and whether the #Fed & peers are 'making an historic mistake', in Steve's words.

A few charts & comments for background:- 2/It's trite to say the jump in price indices is *all* attributable to a 'basis effect' when they've accelerated so much THIS year.

Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.

What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!

I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
1/n
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
2/n
#inflation

@Halsrethink Bill is however subject to the 'productivity' fallacy of interest rates. That the natural rate is low because we supposedly have nothing worth investing in and hence funnelling money into (usually poorly managed) public projects would help raise it. @Halsrethink Contra that, there are many obvious instances of the misuse of too much too easy credit in so many fields. It also overlooks that genuine productivity gains may be limited because 'hurdle' rates have been elevated by all manner of govt interventions - hardly to be cured by more!