Author of the 'Cantillon Effects' newsletter. Independent research & content, conferences, public speaking.
Unconventional Wisdom and Original Thinking
2 added to My Authors
May 13 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The world today🧵
The US is a bankrupt liberal arts college being run into the ground by sophomore, social studies snowflakes while the frat boys have broken into the arms locker and are shooting up the neighboutrhood, The Dean, meanwhile, can't remember where he put his glasses.
Europe: a weird mix of eager Bonapartism & a Judaean suicide cult from the 'Life of Brian'.
Worsula Fonda-Lyin' as Agrippina: Verhofstadt as Saint Just.
Gutting its own economy but now presuming to re-order the Pacific as well as poking the Bear on its (ever-expanding) borders
May 13 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.
Feb 13 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
All you pointy-head PhD types and other academics now issuing mea culpas for ‘not understanding’ the #inflation dynamic: we warned you from the very off that more $$ + less supply + capital destruction/impairment would only NOT lead there if the QE/fiscal flood ...
..held perforce partly in abeyance, were later, upon cessation of ‘house arrest’, used to pay down debt & so self-extinguish itself.
If that unlikelihood did NOT eventuate - if Hyper-#QE were not terminated/reversed -how was the present bleak situation NOT to be foreseen??
Unspoken in that last is the added complication that the rising tide will NOT lift all boats at once. Cantillon effects will create undeserving winners. Relative price distortions will misdirect capital & effort. Secondary credit booms(& busts) will be seeded.
This 12-tweet thread will post the slides I prepared for the show:-
Like all crimes, #inflation needs means, motive & opportunity. Here's a lttle of the second:-
Nov 24, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
If you’d wanted the independent thinkers, the freedom lovers, those sceptical of state action & distrustful of its corporate cronies, to reveal themselves so that they could vilified, segregated, punished -and possibly culled- you couldn’t improve on this whole #COVID19 theatre
The constant lies; the imposition of one failed measure after another; the *repetition* & reinforcement of those errors; the ever-lengthening time-scale over which they’ll be imposed; the ineffective genetech; the “Plague of the Unspiked” Big Lie -
@Halsrethink Bill is however subject to the 'productivity' fallacy of interest rates. That the natural rate is low because we supposedly have nothing worth investing in and hence funnelling money into (usually poorly managed) public projects would help raise it.
@Halsrethink Contra that, there are many obvious instances of the misuse of too much too easy credit in so many fields. It also overlooks that genuine productivity gains may be limited because 'hurdle' rates have been elevated by all manner of govt interventions - hardly to be cured by more!
Feb 16, 2021 • 10 tweets • 10 min read
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.
In the 2021's first issue of #Cantillon Effects, we discussed the #inflation which now pervades our lives: not just the narrow, disputed one relating to goods prices, but the inflation of rhetoric, passions, tribalism & despotism.
Over this thread, we'll present our case:- 1/x
Replacing the "public square" with the "cyber swarm" has not been conducive to reason or civility, for all that it has opened up new possibilities of disseminating news and opinion. 2/x
#China stocks roar on, with #CSI300 up ~20% in little more than a week as (official) #margin debt climbs Y150bln to touch Y1.3 trillion - levels only seen in the peak months of 2015's madness.
Worth noting a rejection here could mean the Jan'19 formation is complete. #SHFE#SHSZ
As the money floods into #China#equities, #bonds bear the brunt. Wealth Managers are the MOMO traders de jour "Our company's mixed products can have 60% allocations to #stock, but now we're at 70-80%. This is a normal phenomenon [sic]," said one.
The pernicious facet of this is that a small coterie of CEOs are not punishing the Tech oligolpoly (which many cheer, if only from Schadenfreude) for being too #Left-biased but for not being censorious enough.
Did the C-Suite Sanhedrin ever consult shareholders or ask customers?
This is is the curse of virtue-signalling ‘on office time’, using Other People’s Money (property) & generally acting ultra vires to gain plaudits from the narrow circle of one’s peers by pandering to extremists & activists.
$FB $GOOG $TWTR
Jun 23, 2020 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
In a world where people still starve (though thankfully proportionately fewer over time) and material needs in general are unsated, there can be no #savingsglut. There CAN be misallocations of saving -due to corrupted price signals or corrupted polities, or both- but that’s...
...a very different matter.
Secondly, ‘saving’ is supposed to represent an available resource -whether for consumption or production, whether material or human. It is NOT something which magically appears when the #centralbank & its minions sit behind a keyboard...
May 30, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Modern politicians match Talleyrand’s jibe that “The Bourbons have forgotten nothing and learned nothing”
Having needlessly crashed the economy, they now presume to rescue it with New Deals, Bridges-to-Nowhere, #Green boondoggles & ‘shovel-ready’ jobs.
So, let’s repeat the errors of the 30s; let’s kowtow to the #Climate lobby; let’s ignore #Japan’s three decades of ‘infrastructure’ failure (#China’s more recent efforts, too); and, risibly, let’s echo #Obama’s corrupted & ineffective ‘shovel-ready’ nonsense of 2008.
May 18, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Climbing out of the woodwork are all the usual Malthusian birds of ill-omen, seeking to harness today's justifiable pessimism to their #Green bandwagon and so exploit the disorientation of a people too shell-shocked to fully realise the extent of what has been taken from them
"We are at the #tippingpoint," many will intone and so must adapt to their Dystopian visions of a #NewNormal - a permanent State of Fear in which life will henceforth be anything BUT 'normal'.
May 3, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Merryn obviously doesn’t see the irony of holding up 1930s America as providing examples of government programmes (whether under Hoover or Roosevelt) which worked, swiftly, fairly, and with few malign consequences.