Author of the 'Cantillon Effects' newsletter. Independent research & content, conferences, public speaking.
Unconventional Wisdom and Original Thinking
Jun 8 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
A disparate cluster of interests -some venal, some ideological, some quasi-religious- have found common expression in the issue of #Climate™️. Too much, intellectually, financially, emotionally, politically has been sunk into it to allow for honest discussion. 1/x
Even minor scepticism or attempts at technical or economic discussion start by begging the question of whether ANY of this game is worth the candle; all include the Insh’allah of “...while climate change is accelerated and we must (!) address the problem at once...”
Jun 5 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Smith, for all his virtues, here begs the question of what determines prices. If it were always simply at the whim of the producer why would such individuals and firms limit themselves to (1.05)^n? Why not 1.1? 1.2? 2? 200? 2000?
...would each not strive to acquire all those identifiably up- and downstream of it, collapsing the very division of labour Smith so correctly lauded?
And what of the VALUE of these so easily dictated profits? If the final price rises exponentially, the entrepreneur’s return...
Jun 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Now, children, ask yourselves what the Treasury will do with that $1.4tln.
(Hint: it will not be locked in a vault in Iron Mountain)
Next, ask what the successive orders of recipients of that $1.4tln will do with their booty.
(Hint 2: no mattresses will be stuffed) ....
So, class, you can see that -to the extent the banks do *not* create extra credit to accommodate the USTs- we will DIVERT ‘liquidity’, not destroy it - and some of the very same Co.s you’re buying today will see revenues increase even as others’ will fall....
May 8 • 15 tweets • 12 min read
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes" 1/n #FRB #FederalReserve
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing. 2/n
Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
First of all, it's #ValentinesDay and SOMEONE is going to get massacred today when the #CPI is released, so naturally:-
Feb 6 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Agreed. The singular advantage of money as a near-universally acceptable, reliable medium of exchange is that it breaks the need to know and trust counterparts all along the chain of trade & production. 1/x
This not only expands -and hence enriches- the network of exchange (think Adam Smith or “I, Pencil”) but removes node-occupying middlemen and toll-exactors. Efficiency increases, but transparency and fairness, too. 2/x
I did TRY to find something positive to say - honest, folks!
Following are the notes I sent the team before the show:-
Ok. So here goes...
Aug 16, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Sadly, the delusion that government is a choir of seraphim, all celestial virtue & superhuman foresight is hard to dispel; not least since ALL parties exploit this, all teachers are themselves trained to it.
Now just imagine the whole country run by London’s train driver unions!
Most here will have no memory of the 70s -the never-ending stoppages, strikes & flying pickets; the ‘closed shop’, restrictive practices, collective bargaining, ‘beer & sandwiches’ deal-making. The poor service, culminating in the unburied dead, the garbage-filled streets...
May 13, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The world today🧵
The US is a bankrupt liberal arts college being run into the ground by sophomore, social studies snowflakes while the frat boys have broken into the arms locker and are shooting up the neighboutrhood, The Dean, meanwhile, can't remember where he put his glasses.
Europe: a weird mix of eager Bonapartism & a Judaean suicide cult from the 'Life of Brian'.
Worsula Fonda-Lyin' as Agrippina: Verhofstadt as Saint Just.
Gutting its own economy but now presuming to re-order the Pacific as well as poking the Bear on its (ever-expanding) borders
May 13, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.
Feb 13, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
All you pointy-head PhD types and other academics now issuing mea culpas for ‘not understanding’ the #inflation dynamic: we warned you from the very off that more $$ + less supply + capital destruction/impairment would only NOT lead there if the QE/fiscal flood ...
..held perforce partly in abeyance, were later, upon cessation of ‘house arrest’, used to pay down debt & so self-extinguish itself.
If that unlikelihood did NOT eventuate - if Hyper-#QE were not terminated/reversed -how was the present bleak situation NOT to be foreseen??
Unspoken in that last is the added complication that the rising tide will NOT lift all boats at once. Cantillon effects will create undeserving winners. Relative price distortions will misdirect capital & effort. Secondary credit booms(& busts) will be seeded.
This 12-tweet thread will post the slides I prepared for the show:-
Like all crimes, #inflation needs means, motive & opportunity. Here's a lttle of the second:-
Nov 24, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
If you’d wanted the independent thinkers, the freedom lovers, those sceptical of state action & distrustful of its corporate cronies, to reveal themselves so that they could vilified, segregated, punished -and possibly culled- you couldn’t improve on this whole #COVID19 theatre
The constant lies; the imposition of one failed measure after another; the *repetition* & reinforcement of those errors; the ever-lengthening time-scale over which they’ll be imposed; the ineffective genetech; the “Plague of the Unspiked” Big Lie -
@Halsrethink Bill is however subject to the 'productivity' fallacy of interest rates. That the natural rate is low because we supposedly have nothing worth investing in and hence funnelling money into (usually poorly managed) public projects would help raise it.
@Halsrethink Contra that, there are many obvious instances of the misuse of too much too easy credit in so many fields. It also overlooks that genuine productivity gains may be limited because 'hurdle' rates have been elevated by all manner of govt interventions - hardly to be cured by more!
Feb 16, 2021 • 10 tweets • 10 min read
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.
In the 2021's first issue of #Cantillon Effects, we discussed the #inflation which now pervades our lives: not just the narrow, disputed one relating to goods prices, but the inflation of rhetoric, passions, tribalism & despotism.
Over this thread, we'll present our case:- 1/x
Replacing the "public square" with the "cyber swarm" has not been conducive to reason or civility, for all that it has opened up new possibilities of disseminating news and opinion. 2/x