Thread by @jseldin

NEW: @DoD_IG report on US-#Afghanistan raises questions about Washington's "over-the-horizon" #counterterrorism strategy

Need for US planes/drones to fly long distances, loss of human intelligence "has significantly reduced the DoD’s
capacity to track terrorist targets"

"As of the end of the quarter [March 31], the DoD had not conducted any strikes on terrorist targets in #Afghanistan since its withdrawal last year" per @DoD_IG acting IG Sean O'Donnell

re: #ISIS #alQaida

#ISIS-#Khorasan estimated to have 2,000 members operating in #Afghanistan, per @DoD_IG citing @DefenseIntel

That's about half of estimates shared by the @UN in February

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1489732661174104065?s=20&t=Z_24zAzb8Gd-J_3m10S5hw

#ISIS-#Khorasan claimed 41 attacks in #Afghanistan & #Pakistan from January-March, 2022, per @DoD_IG citing @DefenseIntel

"...focused its attacks on the #Taliban, religious minorities, & economic infrastructure to weaken the security environment..."

.@DefenseIntel tells @DoD_IG it has seen little activity from #alQaida or #AQIS for now

Both "continued to maintain a low profile at the behest of the #Taliban" per report

BUT @CENTCOM "predicted that the Taliban will likely loosen its restrictions on alQaida in the future"

New: #Taliban making some progress on air power w/captured aircraft

@DefenseIntel "reported that the Taliban had repaired some damaged aircraft & made incremental gains in its capability to employ an estimated 41 usable helicopters & airplanes" per @DoD_IG report

US expected to spend approx. $19.5 billion to support its counterterrorism in #Afghanistan - Operation Enduring Sentinel (OES) - in FY 2022, @DeptofDefense comptroller tells @DoD_IG

Joint HQ in #Doha has abt 100 personnel, per report

#ISIS-#Khorasan: @DefenseIntel assesses the ISIS affiliate "could direct attacks in the West, including against the US homeland, within the next year if the group prioritizes developing such a capability"

#ISIS-#Khorasan increasing its recruitment efforts w/focus on Central Asia

"Since January ISIS-K has been publishing media in Central Asian languages to reach ethnic minorities in the region" per @DoD_IG citing @DefenseIntel

#ISIS-#Khorasan outreach to Central Asia "aims to inspire supporters in these regions to travel to #Afghanistan or conduct attacks where they are located, potentially against Western personnel & interests" per @DoD_IG citing @DefenseIntel

#ISIS-#Khorasan recruiting - "leveraged the widespread poverty & governance shortfalls in #Afghanistan in its recruitment efforts by offering payment to potential recruits" per @DoD_IG citing @DefenseIntel

NEW: @CENTCOM assesses #Taliban likely to loosen restrictions on #alQaida "over the next 12 to 24 months, allowing al-Qaeda greater freedom of movement & the ability to train, travel, & potentially re-establish an external operations capability" per @DoD_IG report

#Afghanistan's National Resistance Front (NRF)- "The #Taliban has largely pushed the NRF, the country’s largest opposition group, into the mountains" per @DoD_IG report

"As of early March, the NRF was conducting low-level attacks against the #Taliban" per @DoD_IG citing @DefenseIntel

"As of late February, the Taliban deployed troops to
#Panjshir in anticipation of an NRF spring offensive"

#Taliban forces increased targeting of #ISIS-#Khorasan in mid-February, per @DoD_IG report, citing @DefenseIntel

"...establishing checkpoints and conducting house-to-house searches, probably in an effort to deny ISIS-K the capability to target critical infrastructure"