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I want to give an assessment about the state of the war and what I think how it will continue. Moreover I want to address shortly the dispute between #ScottRitter and @GonzaloLira1968.
Eventually I want to add a political dimension to the whole picture.
#Ukraine #Russia #Kiev
I want to give an assessment about the state of the war and what I think how it will continue. Moreover I want to address shortly the dispute between #ScottRitter and @GonzaloLira1968.
Eventually I want to add a political dimension to the whole picture.
#Ukraine #Russia #Kiev
2/
First of all I want to state, that I do support Scott's assessment about the current state of the operation. Why? There is a special military operation ongoing, whose objective is, to free #Novorossiya, and probably either integrate it into #Russia or establish it as a new
First of all I want to state, that I do support Scott's assessment about the current state of the operation. Why? There is a special military operation ongoing, whose objective is, to free #Novorossiya, and probably either integrate it into #Russia or establish it as a new
3/
country. Of course, because #Russia is considering #Novorossiya as Russian land, and the people as Russians. Therefore Russia is advancing extremely carefully, to preserve the population, as much as possible. If someone ask the question, how this
country. Of course, because #Russia is considering #Novorossiya as Russian land, and the people as Russians. Therefore Russia is advancing extremely carefully, to preserve the population, as much as possible. If someone ask the question, how this
4/
could be considered as "carefully", I just want to give the hint to those people, to think about, how a #Russia|n war against a #NATO country could look like, where Russia wouldn't proceed "carefully". Well, that being said, we need to think of the scope of this special
could be considered as "carefully", I just want to give the hint to those people, to think about, how a #Russia|n war against a #NATO country could look like, where Russia wouldn't proceed "carefully". Well, that being said, we need to think of the scope of this special
5/
military operation. From my point of view, #Novorossiya, and by this the SMO will include #Donbass, #Kharkiv, #dnepropetrovsk, #Kherson, #Zaporozhye, #Nikolaev and #Odessa. We have here a relatively pro #Russia|n population. Especially after the Nazis got #denazified, the
military operation. From my point of view, #Novorossiya, and by this the SMO will include #Donbass, #Kharkiv, #dnepropetrovsk, #Kherson, #Zaporozhye, #Nikolaev and #Odessa. We have here a relatively pro #Russia|n population. Especially after the Nazis got #denazified, the
6/
population eventually shows, that it welcomes #Russia|n soldiers. Therefore the currently committed troops (200k) are more then enough/sufficient. This is essentially, what #ScottRitter says as well. If you look at the other Ukrainian regions, especially from #Kiev westwards,
population eventually shows, that it welcomes #Russia|n soldiers. Therefore the currently committed troops (200k) are more then enough/sufficient. This is essentially, what #ScottRitter says as well. If you look at the other Ukrainian regions, especially from #Kiev westwards,
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the picture changes. Those people aren't that pro #Russia|n as those, from the east. It could get far more difficult for Russia, to fight its way through regions with a hostile population. If we assume, that the SMO will be over, and the "officially" declared political goals
the picture changes. Those people aren't that pro #Russia|n as those, from the east. It could get far more difficult for Russia, to fight its way through regions with a hostile population. If we assume, that the SMO will be over, and the "officially" declared political goals
8/
of #Russia in #Ukraine, at least in the area, designated for the SMO, are achieved, the following COULD happen. Russia, as I said, will either incorporate #Novorossiya or form an independent nation, that will be allied with Russia. We can be darn sure, that the rest Ukraine
of #Russia in #Ukraine, at least in the area, designated for the SMO, are achieved, the following COULD happen. Russia, as I said, will either incorporate #Novorossiya or form an independent nation, that will be allied with Russia. We can be darn sure, that the rest Ukraine
9/
wouldn't just stand by and accept it, especially after all the investment from The West, to kill as many #Russia|n and Ukrainian soldiers (both Russian) as possible. Which means, that the Ukrainians would continue attacking those areas, that are either Russia itself, of allied
wouldn't just stand by and accept it, especially after all the investment from The West, to kill as many #Russia|n and Ukrainian soldiers (both Russian) as possible. Which means, that the Ukrainians would continue attacking those areas, that are either Russia itself, of allied
10/
to it. This in turn could be the trigger for #Russia to do, what many are asking or expecting from Russia. To formally declare war to #Ukraine and execute a partial mobilization (full is by far not needed). I estimate some 500.000 troops needed, for the rest of Ukraine. And
to it. This in turn could be the trigger for #Russia to do, what many are asking or expecting from Russia. To formally declare war to #Ukraine and execute a partial mobilization (full is by far not needed). I estimate some 500.000 troops needed, for the rest of Ukraine. And
11/
then we could see WAR. If some people are currently shitting their pants, then what you would see against western #Ukraine or ANY #NATO state would be another dimension of causalities on the side of The West / Ukraine. Well. I know, this is general speaking, but it should
then we could see WAR. If some people are currently shitting their pants, then what you would see against western #Ukraine or ANY #NATO state would be another dimension of causalities on the side of The West / Ukraine. Well. I know, this is general speaking, but it should
12/
provide the picture, that is needed, to understand what is going. The SMO is going to free #Novorossiya with as much caution as possible. Afterwards we could see a declaration of war, for the rest of #Ukraine if needed. And this is essentially what #ScottRitter is saying.
provide the picture, that is needed, to understand what is going. The SMO is going to free #Novorossiya with as much caution as possible. Afterwards we could see a declaration of war, for the rest of #Ukraine if needed. And this is essentially what #ScottRitter is saying.
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The problem is, he is considering it purely from a military perspective, that's why he is slightly confused, why the big military operations aren't taking place. For a hammer, everything is a nail. So I support him fully, but I want(ed) to provide the political background.
The problem is, he is considering it purely from a military perspective, that's why he is slightly confused, why the big military operations aren't taking place. For a hammer, everything is a nail. So I support him fully, but I want(ed) to provide the political background.
14/
And as promised, I want also to give the political background/context to what is going on. At least a tiny part of it, needed to understand the military part above. Everyone expected #Russia to rush trough #Ukraine and having it done withing weeks, or a few months. Including
And as promised, I want also to give the political background/context to what is going on. At least a tiny part of it, needed to understand the military part above. Everyone expected #Russia to rush trough #Ukraine and having it done withing weeks, or a few months. Including
15/
myself. But #Russia has political objectives and the military operations is just one tool of many, simultaneously running ones, to achieve those. In the first place, the goal is to implement the new European security architecture. Neither #Europe nor #NATO will ever accept it
myself. But #Russia has political objectives and the military operations is just one tool of many, simultaneously running ones, to achieve those. In the first place, the goal is to implement the new European security architecture. Neither #Europe nor #NATO will ever accept it
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This was always clear, even when #Russia started the negotiations at the end of last year. In turn it means, that The West needs to be forced to implement it. By attacking #NATO directly, we all would risk a nuclear Armageddon. Not a very good solution. Which means in turn
This was always clear, even when #Russia started the negotiations at the end of last year. In turn it means, that The West needs to be forced to implement it. By attacking #NATO directly, we all would risk a nuclear Armageddon. Not a very good solution. Which means in turn
17/
that the Europeans needs to experience the same downfall, that the Soviet Union did, decades ago. Only if #Europe falls apart due to economic destruction, it will be possible to weaken The West enough, to sit again at the table and negotiate about the European security
that the Europeans needs to experience the same downfall, that the Soviet Union did, decades ago. Only if #Europe falls apart due to economic destruction, it will be possible to weaken The West enough, to sit again at the table and negotiate about the European security
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architecture. If there would be anyone to negotiate (inner European struggles very likely) left. To achieve this, it would be fatal for #Russia, to defeat #Ukraine within weeks. It would only consolidate "The West". By letting #Ukraine spent all the Western money, scrap
architecture. If there would be anyone to negotiate (inner European struggles very likely) left. To achieve this, it would be fatal for #Russia, to defeat #Ukraine within weeks. It would only consolidate "The West". By letting #Ukraine spent all the Western money, scrap
19/
Western military stocks, show the West its real ugly Nazi face, force The West, out of solidarity to apply ever more and more (self)sanctions, #Russia lets The West defeating itself. Yes, Russia also pays by blood and equipment, but the price to win, if the strategy succeeds
Western military stocks, show the West its real ugly Nazi face, force The West, out of solidarity to apply ever more and more (self)sanctions, #Russia lets The West defeating itself. Yes, Russia also pays by blood and equipment, but the price to win, if the strategy succeeds
20/
is far more valuable. Essentially we can sum it up, as bleeding The West (and #Ukraine) dry, by letting them "support" Ukraine for an undefined period of time with crazy amounts of equipment and money and applying (self)sanctions. The consequences will be seen in #Europe
is far more valuable. Essentially we can sum it up, as bleeding The West (and #Ukraine) dry, by letting them "support" Ukraine for an undefined period of time with crazy amounts of equipment and money and applying (self)sanctions. The consequences will be seen in #Europe
21/
within the next 12 months when energy (#Gas / #Oil) prices rise every higher, food as well. Food is the next problem. It is not only, that it will get more expensive, there is a real possibility, that, due to shortages, there will be less food, then demand. (Hunger...)
within the next 12 months when energy (#Gas / #Oil) prices rise every higher, food as well. Food is the next problem. It is not only, that it will get more expensive, there is a real possibility, that, due to shortages, there will be less food, then demand. (Hunger...)
22/
This is exactly the summery of consequences, that will eventually bring #Europe and its society to crack and to turn against its governments. This is the part, where I assume, that #ScottRitter only saw the military perspective. I do NOT support the assumption, the Scott is
This is exactly the summery of consequences, that will eventually bring #Europe and its society to crack and to turn against its governments. This is the part, where I assume, that #ScottRitter only saw the military perspective. I do NOT support the assumption, the Scott is
23/
now selling his expertise for money. Nor do I value Gonzalos opinion as much as Scotts. Which doesn't meant, that I do not value his opinion :) Which I of course DO.
One last thing to add... Of course there is ALWAYS the real possibility, that #Ukraine simply collapses fully,
now selling his expertise for money. Nor do I value Gonzalos opinion as much as Scotts. Which doesn't meant, that I do not value his opinion :) Which I of course DO.
One last thing to add... Of course there is ALWAYS the real possibility, that #Ukraine simply collapses fully,
24/
before #Russia even comes close to Western Ukrainian regions or even #Kiev.
#Ukraine #Europe #Donbass
before #Russia even comes close to Western Ukrainian regions or even #Kiev.
#Ukraine #Europe #Donbass
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