«Ukraine has shown it can strike military targets inside Russia, notably railway lines, airfields and weapons sites. It has done so responsibly and with precision...Military strikes, unlike Russia’s barbarous assault on Ukraine, have scrupulously avoided targeting civilian areas»
"They are designed to damage Russia’s capacity to wage war. If Ukraine maintains the ability to continue these counterforce strikes, the war is likely to end sooner than it otherwise would. The crucial step is to convince Mr Putin that he cannot prevail and must sue for peace."
"Western leaders have given the right rhetorical message in this crisis, but Kyiv cannot win with words alone. It needs weapons."
1/5 Western views about the outcome of war in 🇺🇦 differ. Pessimism, then a surge of optimism and pessimism again. Now, with 🇷🇺 occupying 20% of 🇺🇦, and heavy battles on #Donbas there are talks ny some politicians in the West about ending the war with concessions of 🇺🇦 territory.
2/5 These shifts have consequences. 1️⃣, they influence 🇺🇦 morale - we are already devastated by months of violence, destruction and death. 2️⃣, they affect weapon supplies and, more importantly, their timing. 3️⃣, they give 🇷🇺 ground to try suggesting concession as the best option.
3/5 To see the situation clearly, look at the bigger picture. Even if/when russians take #Donbas, they will have to deal with destroyed infrastructure, extremely disloyal population and active partisan/sabotage movement. 🇺🇦 forces will do everything to take back our territories.
1/4 Sanctions for microchips and other high-tech things have created bottlenecks for russian companies. russia's advanced technology sector consumes less than 1% of the world's semiconductors. However, the effects are already felt, especially in some sectors of russian economy.
2/4 🇷🇺 laws mandate companies store data within the country - difficult to comply with for lack of new servers and cloud computing services. Biggest telecom groups will be unable to access 5G equipment and will probably need to resort to buying second-hand 4G equipment.
3/4 russia is known for using "grey market" schemes to buy what it needs but global shortage of chips and other crucial IT hardware will make it unlikely. Domestic production of microchips is reportedly of very low quality so they cannot fully substitute imported ones.
1/3 #India is taking advantage of the situation with imports of russian crude oil soaring since russia attacked #Ukraine - they are now 17% of Indian imports vs less than 1% before the war. Some of this refined oil then ends up in EU, indirectly financing #russian war machine.
2/3 #China is also discussing the purchase of russian crude oil to fill up its strategic reserves. Its price has decreased rapidly as a lot buyers refused to continue cooperation due to sanctions imposed against russia for its invasion to #Ukraine.
3/3 This is a chance for China to replenish its strategic reserves for a low price, using sanctions against russia for its own game. It has done the same earlier, accepting oil cargoes from sanctioned Iran and Venezuela. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine️
1/4 Every day Ukrainians are dying - both soldiers and civilians. The price we pay for freedom is living in constant danger right now. There are no safe places in #Ukraine today.
2/4 All these lives could be spared if the West didn't try to be friendly with 🇷🇺 even after #Chechnya, #Georgia, #Crimea and #Donbas. The West has pretended to look another way, so today russian weapons with details produced in the EU are bringing deaths and tragedy to Ukraine.
3/4 russian war machine is financed through sales of oil and gas, sold to the EU. Now russians have gone even further and are blackmailing the whole world with hunger and nuclear war.
1/4 You can often hear in the West that putin must be given a chance to keep his face. That russians should not be humiliated or they will become more aggressive and dangerous.That they should be allowed to retreat from Ukraine like from Afghanistan - through a "golden bridge".
2/4 This just shows that some politicians care only for short-term economic gains and not the global security system. Although this war is very clear and obvious - russia attacked Ukraine for no reason. russia is the guilty party.
3/4 A compromise is always a violation of the victim's rights and partial saticfaction of the aggressor. We must adhere to international law. The more "golden bridges" there are for retreating in the world, the more attempts of violence and breaking the global order.
1/4 current surplus at russian accounts (exports minus imports, to simplify) is now about $96 billion. It is four times as much as last year. If the trend continues, it can grow up to $250 billion - almost the same as the $300 billion of assets currently frozen in Western banks
2/4 russian oil and gas exports are not increasing but prices for energy are growing rapidly. #russia will suffer economically once it uses up all the Western components and goods, and no new ones come in. But it will happen much later.
3/4 #putin is trying to play a long game so that growing prices make the West more susceptible to negotiations and lifting of sanctions. Without a complete oil and gas embargo (implemented soon) he might succeed.