1/ The #Ethiopia/n government has informed the diplomatic community in the country on the “measures taken by the Government on human rights violations related to the conflict in the northern part of the country.”
#Tigray #warcrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity #genocide
2/ One may argue however that it seems evident that PM #AbiyAhmed, #PP government, and #ENDF military leadership in #Ethiopia are ultimately politically and juridically responsible for the #warcrimes, #crimesagainsthumanity, and possibly #genocide for their war in and on #Tigray.
3/ ICRC in #internationalhumanitarianlaw commentary: “Commanders & other superiors are criminally responsible for war crimes committed by their subordinates if they knew, or had reason to know, that the subordinates were about to commit or were committing such crimes... (cont.)
4/ "... and did not take all necessary and reasonable measures in their power to prevent their commission, or if such crimes had been committed, to punish the persons responsible.”
5/ There is ample evidence that PM #AbiyAhmed, members of #Ethiopia government, and the #ENDF leadership were aware of the #atrocities committed in #Tigray, condoned it, and even at times encouraged such actions to take place.
6/ Very seldom however will an incumbent government allow investigation and prosecution of such crimes against themselves. «Shit rolls downhill» is a military expression apparently fitting the #Ethiopia/n government’s current so-called “accountability strategy”.
7/ Instead we can expect that blame for the atrocities in #Tigray are pushed down the ranks to lower level officers and rank and file soldiers who will be singled out for persecution.
8/ If political and military top-level accountability will take place, this would need to be included as an element in a possible future “peace agreement” between the Government of Tigray and the Federal Government of Ethiopia.
9/ However, at this juncture, z classic dilemma of “peace or justice” will occur: it is highly unlikely that #Ethiopia/n government will accept a peace agreement which may lead to the arrest & persecution of PM #AbiyAhmed, the Ministers of Defense, Peace, & Justice, & #ENDF tops.
10/ So, herein lies the dilemma for #Tigray government – to achieve peace with the #Ethiopia government they must accept that the political and military leaders responsible for the massive atrocities inflicted upon the Tigrayan people will NOT be held to account.
11/ For #Tigray gov. to endorse such a “peace agreement” will conversely put them at risk of massive criticism from the #Tegaru, who have been victims of the atrocities.
12/ Furthermore, #TPLF has repeatedly stated that they will not give up the struggle before the political leaders in Addis (and Asmara) are held to account, so they would also need to double-back on their promises given to the people of #Tigray.
13/ So, although there are signs of movement in a political dialogue between #Mekelle & #Addis, there is no quick fix to a deal. We should also be aware of that z outcome of a possible “agreement” may again spark protests from the many, many victims of atrocity crimes in #Tigray.

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More from @KjetilTronvoll

Apr 20, 2021
@NAMA_AMHARA #Ethiopia states:

«PM of our country & #Oromo Prosperity Party led by him have intensified their atrocities against #Amhara people by deploying z state machinery & national resources & abetting, supporting & even commandeering state terror.»
With this statement it seems #NAMA suspends its ‘collaborative’ relations with #Amhara PP, and turns into a ‘hostile opposition’. This has been expected for some time. It is thus likely that the state machinery will be turned against them with full force.
#NAMA posed the only genuine threat to #Amhara PP in the upcoming #election. With this statement it seems that they are disenfranchising from election participation (needs confirmation).
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27, 2021
Thread 1) Are we witnessing a #genocidal campaign by #Eritrea’n forces in the #war in #Tigray #Ethiopia? The atrocities committed and the apparent intent may seem to point in that direction. In this thread I will outline the argument supporting such possible claim. #genocide
2) First, it is important to distinguish between #Eritrean & #Ethiopian forces, although #ENDF is also allegedly responsible for mass atrocities. But in #genocide the intent of the atrocities is also important to consider, which appears more ambiguous in relation to ENDF.
3) It has been documented widespread & systematic #massacers of civilians by #EDF throughout Tigray, targeted as #Tegaru. Many witnesses also claim that Eritrean troops have admitted to orders to kill #Tigrayan men & boys, so they shall not later revenge the atrocities.
Read 12 tweets
Dec 30, 2020
Thread: What do we know so far about the #war on #Tigray in #Ethiopia, which has been running for nearly 2 months now? In this thread I will sum up some of the key developments.
First, the so-called “law and order” operation, which @PMAbiyAhmed declared completed one month ago, has not yet reached its basic objectives, and it is doubtful that it ever will. Hence, the war in #Tigray will continue indefinitely, or until a political settlement is reached.
#Tigrayan forces, under the command of the elected reg. gov. of #TPLF, are still waging an active resistance war. Over the last few days, Tigray forces seem to be on the offensive, challenging #ENDF military control of the main routes (Mekelle-Wukro-Adigrat; Mekelle-Alamata).
Read 24 tweets
Dec 26, 2020
Thread: The statements and evidences on the horrendous atrocities taking place in the war on #Tigray #Ethiopia are mounting, despite the fed gov imposed information blockage. | Terrified' survivors recount attacks on civilians in Tigray | AFP via @YouTube
It seems clear that widespread and systematic #humanrights violations mounting to #CrimesAgainstHumanity and #WarCrimes are taking place in #Tigray #Ethiopia.
Whether we are also observing a #Genocide in the making in #Tigray #Ethiopia, is leagally speaking too early to confirm due to lack of access. #GenocideWatch and #UN special advisor on the prevention of genocide have expressed concerns in this regard however.
Read 9 tweets

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