Professor & Vice Rector for Research at Oslo New University College and Director of Oslo Analytica: Political anthropologist, Africa analyst, conflict advisor
Feb 10 • 14 tweets • 12 min read
Thread on #politics and #religion in #Ethiopia 1/14: The country is bracing for a new, nationwide, protest, with possible ensuing widespread violence on Sunday 12. Feb. This time ostensibly over #religion and control of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church #EOTC. #Oromo#Tigray
2/14: The conflict in #EOTC has deep roots, but flared up recently when a group of #Oromo clergy broke with the Church leadership and established a separate Synod, arguing that Oromo representation and culture had been marginalised throughout centuries.
Feb 7 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
1/12: Analysing politics in #Ethiopia is to try to capture a moving target. Our scholarly approach and understanding have over decades been "blunted" by the incessant fundamental political events happening every so often: large scale conflicts, mass atrocities, revolutions, etc.
2/12: This constant stream of political shocks has become a “normal”, leading to a heedless state of mind and blunting our methodological and analytical approaches and frames in understanding long durée political evolvement in #Ethiopia.
Nov 2, 2022 • 17 tweets • 12 min read
1/: My initial reflections on the #Tigray - #Ethiopia#peaceagreement. First, it is commendable that the parties have reached an agreement. Admittedly, this was surprising. One should sincerely hope that the agreement will pave the way for durable peace.
2/: However, the #Tigray - #Ethiopia#peaceagreement circulating (still not in signed version) leaves many questions unanswered. Although the parties have committed themselves not to question any part of the agreement, it obligates us analysts to point out some issues of concern.
Oct 15, 2022 • 8 tweets • 8 min read
1/: The world´s biggest ongoing armed conflict is not #Russia ´s attack on #Ukraine, but #Ethiopia and #Eritrea´s massive offensives on #Tigray. Reliable estimate is that up to 1 mil. troops are engaged in the war theater.
2/: The ongoing combined #Eritrea / #Ethiopia offensives on #Tigray use WW1 tactics of ordering massive human wave attacks on Tigray defense lines. The carnage is horrendous. Likely as many as 100.000 have been slaughtered over the last weeks.
Oct 13, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
#Ethiopia's civil #war finds its origin in the withering & collapse of z ruling party #EPRDF. In a new article, I explore what led to z breakdown of #Africa's biggest party, emphasizing how z process was perceived from z point of view of #TPLF. #Tigray muse.jhu.edu/article/866991…
Comparative research points to both endogamous & exogamous factors contributing to party instability. Differences in local constituencies, ideological outlooks, & policy preferences, as well as variations in ethnopolitical identities, are all factors that may undermine consensus.
Aug 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
1/4: @WFPCheif Beaseley is outraged & condemn #Tigray auth of #Ethiopia for “stealing” @WFP fuel from storage in Mekelle. My #UN source is equally outraged over Beaseley’s twisting of truth, when WFP initially loaned z fuel from Tigray, as is also written in their own sitrep:
2/: @WFP has during operations in #Tigray been bringing in own fuel, as well as loaning from local authorities upon signed receipt. To accuse reg gov to “steal” something which was initially given to WFP on loan is either a misappropriation of English, or appears as politicking.
«PM of our country & #Oromo Prosperity Party led by him have intensified their atrocities against #Amhara people by deploying z state machinery & national resources & abetting, supporting & even commandeering state terror.» facebook.com/41530829894480…
With this statement it seems #NAMA suspends its ‘collaborative’ relations with #Amhara PP, and turns into a ‘hostile opposition’. This has been expected for some time. It is thus likely that the state machinery will be turned against them with full force.
Feb 27, 2021 • 12 tweets • 11 min read
Thread 1) Are we witnessing a #genocidal campaign by #Eritrea’n forces in the #war in #Tigray#Ethiopia? The atrocities committed and the apparent intent may seem to point in that direction. In this thread I will outline the argument supporting such possible claim. #genocide2) First, it is important to distinguish between #Eritrean & #Ethiopian forces, although #ENDF is also allegedly responsible for mass atrocities. But in #genocide the intent of the atrocities is also important to consider, which appears more ambiguous in relation to ENDF.
Dec 30, 2020 • 24 tweets • 19 min read
Thread: What do we know so far about the #war on #Tigray in #Ethiopia, which has been running for nearly 2 months now? In this thread I will sum up some of the key developments.
First, the so-called “law and order” operation, which @PMAbiyAhmed declared completed one month ago, has not yet reached its basic objectives, and it is doubtful that it ever will. Hence, the war in #Tigray will continue indefinitely, or until a political settlement is reached.