My model finds he’s been worth ~19 goals to #LFC vs if they had an average #PremierLeague GK!
Not only is his 1v1 stopping off the chart he’s performing above the expected level for an average #PL GK in every single aspect of goalkeeping!
#DeGea has a profile unlike any of the other big 6 GKs, while he is an awesome shot stopper who saved #MUFC ~10 goals more than if they had an avg #PremierLeague GK, his weak shot preventing & distribution means #MUFC concede far more chances than they would with an avg #PL GK!
#Ramsdale’s season was like #Arsenal’s very up & down but in the end pretty solid!
In the 1st half of the season his shot stopping was +9, while in the 2nd half his shot stopping was -3!
#AFC will be hoping that next year he will be far more consistent!
#Lloris was one of the unsung heroes of the season
The #THFC stopper was consistently a solid shot stopper & this season, while his distribution was weak, his sweeping was excellent, he frequently stopped big chances occurring due to his ridiculous speed off the line!
#Ederson is a classic example of how GKing has evolved!
His sweeping & distribution is excellent & facilitates the way #MCFC play however this year his substandard shot stopping in combination with #MCFC’s great defence means that his overall worth to #MCFC was just ~4 goals!
#Mendy is a very well rounded GK, his only consistent weaknesses are 1v1 stopping & penalty stopping, in all other areas he is good.
He started off the season in incredible form but by conceding a few weak goals in the final weeks he “only” ended up being worth ~6 goals to #CFC!
A full breakdown of each of the big 6 GKs in all aspects of GKing will be coming out over the summer!
While you wait check out the full summary article (goalkeeper.com/news-and-media…) plus all the great editorial pieces by @samhudspith24 including “the keepers’ call” free e-book!!
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Has #Ederson turned a corner regarding his issues with long range 1v1s?
Yesterday he positioned himself perfectly inside his 6yrd box during this long range 1v1 thus allowing his defender to pressure the ball while maximising the finish difficulty for the striker!
#SOUMCI #MCFC
#Ederson highlighted how waiting deep is not a passive strategy!
As GKs should only wait deep until the CF gets close enough that the GK will not have enough reaction time to make a save, which is what #Ederson did as he rushed & smothered once the CF was within 14yrd of goal!
#Ederson has had huge problems with 1v1 situations like these in the past as he has rushed out too soon & found himself at the PK spot (rather than the 6yrd box) which gifts the opposition CF simpler finishes like chips & sidefoots while also not allowing his CBs to get back!
If #DeGea had rushed out to engage this touch he would’ve turned a 38% goal probability chance into a 61% goal probability chance as MA could’ve easily rounded him or chipped him!
By waiting he dictated the 1v1 to MA & made him make a decision, MA chose to take another touch…
Rather than continuing to stay deep #DeGea realised that now MA was close enough that his reaction time may not be enough to save the shot so he rushed & formed the premeditated block barrier reducing the goal probability to 34%!
#Karius made 8 saves vs #MUFC, but GKing is about quality not quantity!
5 of the saves had xSave>99% thus #PremierLeague GKs save them every time!
The 2 interesting & difficult saves were the 1v1 vs #Bruno & #Weghorst’s long range shot! Which beat #PL GKs 41% & 29% of the time!
It was these saves whose difficulty outweighed the 2 goals #Karius conceded meaning #Karius saved an above expected amount of shots in the #LeagueCupFinal
#Karius could do nothing with the #Casemiro goal (xSave probability<5%) but the #Rashford goal was a little more interesting
#DeGea made the save look easy & made the save far easier for himself due to his top class decision to hold deep & then use his top hand. This made a difficult situation comfortable!
The GK xG model shown above looks at every shot faced, pass received, cross faced & through ball faced & calculates the probability of a goal occurring for & against the GK’s team before the event & after the event occurs!
Thus it measures & evaluates every action a GKs makes!
This allows all GKs to be given a single number measured in goals called
“Total Value in Goals”
Which describes the GK’s value to their side vs having a league average GK & takes into account everything they do meaning GKs of vastly different styles can be fairly compared!
When receiving the ball under pressure, both #Chelsea GKs have been below the #PremierLeague standard!
#Mendy has cost #CFC 0.52 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations (this is heavily influenced by his mistake vs Leeds)
Similarly #Kepa has cost #CFC 0.59 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations as he did in his last 15 #PremierLeague games, #Kepa’s numbers here are heavily influenced by his mistake vs #Liverpool which #Mane capitalised on!