Thread by @AggregateOsint

Let's take a look at the topography of #Severodonetsk and examine the role it is playing in the battle for the city.

#Severodonetsk is flanked to the SW by hills running along the Donets River that are between 300-500 feet higher than the city as shown in the topo map below. 🧵

This offers a series of advantages to whoever holds the hills. Some of those assets are: Observation, better cover, excellent firing positions, ability to fire from defilade, and one of the most important assets in this battle, the ability to observe and adjust artillery fire.

#Ukrainian troops have been using the hills along the Donets to shield their artillery from observation & fire behind the cover and concealment of the hillside. This is also known as firing from defilade. Essentially, using the trajectory of a round to hit an unobservable target.

#Ukrainian troops have also been using the hills by holding back #Russian troops with artillery when #RuAF tries to attack the #UAF held areas. The view from one of the tallest hills is seen below. A person concealed within the trees would be able to adjust arty from here w ease.

#Russia is well aware of this and has been shelling these hills in order to take out #Ukrainian observation posts positioned on them. In fact, by taking a hard look at the 2 week #NASA FIRMS data we can learn a lot about where #Russia is prioritizing targeting.

Forewarning: #NASA FIRMS data shows where large fires are occurring & observable from space. Nothing else. If the shell, mortar, bomb explosive, etc doesn't cause a fire (and many times they don't) or the target can't burn or has already burned, there is no FIRMS mark on the map.

Looking at two weeks of FIRMS data shows us that aside from obvious frontline positions, #Russia has 3 main targets (circled in red on map):
1. Staging and rear areas in the city
2. The Severodonetsk to Lysychans'k bridge
3. The hills along the river overlooking Severodonetsk

Using satellite imagery from June 3 we can see that #Russia has specifically been targeting two hilltops, which are both burning in the picture. Unlike FIRMS data, which is very general, this shows us precisely where #RuAF was striking with their shelling.

Based on the above FIRMS data, which again is imprecise, you could even draw the conclusion that the hills above #Severodonetsk have received the same priority as the bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychans'k bridge, which highlights the importance of high ground to both sides.

So, is holding the high ground the key to victory?

No. It can play a key role in helping defenders hold terrain or as an insurmountable obstacle to an attacker. However, any defense can be overcome by numbers if the attacker has the depth and will to commit to the assault.

The Battle of #Severodonetsk will likely be decided by whether or not the Severodonetsk to Lysychans'k bridge remains standing and whether #Russia has enough troops to commit to the assault. The high ground will merely play a supporting role in this bloody foray.

If #Russia is able to take #Severodonetsk, it is unlikely they will attempt to attack the hills of Lysychans'k across the river. This would be a gargantuan (and foolish) task since #RuAF can simply go around and cut the supply lines to the SW.