Let's take a look at the topography of #Severodonetsk and examine the role it is playing in the battle for the city.

#Severodonetsk is flanked to the SW by hills running along the Donets River that are between 300-500 feet higher than the city as shown in the topo map below. 🧵
This offers a series of advantages to whoever holds the hills. Some of those assets are: Observation, better cover, excellent firing positions, ability to fire from defilade, and one of the most important assets in this battle, the ability to observe and adjust artillery fire.
#Ukrainian troops have been using the hills along the Donets to shield their artillery from observation & fire behind the cover and concealment of the hillside. This is also known as firing from defilade. Essentially, using the trajectory of a round to hit an unobservable target.
#Ukrainian troops have also been using the hills by holding back #Russian troops with artillery when #RuAF tries to attack the #UAF held areas. The view from one of the tallest hills is seen below. A person concealed within the trees would be able to adjust arty from here w ease.
#Russia is well aware of this and has been shelling these hills in order to take out #Ukrainian observation posts positioned on them. In fact, by taking a hard look at the 2 week #NASA FIRMS data we can learn a lot about where #Russia is prioritizing targeting.
Forewarning: #NASA FIRMS data shows where large fires are occurring & observable from space. Nothing else. If the shell, mortar, bomb explosive, etc doesn't cause a fire (and many times they don't) or the target can't burn or has already burned, there is no FIRMS mark on the map.
Looking at two weeks of FIRMS data shows us that aside from obvious frontline positions, #Russia has 3 main targets (circled in red on map):
1. Staging and rear areas in the city
2. The Severodonetsk to Lysychans'k bridge
3. The hills along the river overlooking Severodonetsk
Using satellite imagery from June 3 we can see that #Russia has specifically been targeting two hilltops, which are both burning in the picture. Unlike FIRMS data, which is very general, this shows us precisely where #RuAF was striking with their shelling.
Based on the above FIRMS data, which again is imprecise, you could even draw the conclusion that the hills above #Severodonetsk have received the same priority as the bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychans'k bridge, which highlights the importance of high ground to both sides.
So, is holding the high ground the key to victory?

No. It can play a key role in helping defenders hold terrain or as an insurmountable obstacle to an attacker. However, any defense can be overcome by numbers if the attacker has the depth and will to commit to the assault.
The Battle of #Severodonetsk will likely be decided by whether or not the Severodonetsk to Lysychans'k bridge remains standing and whether #Russia has enough troops to commit to the assault. The high ground will merely play a supporting role in this bloody foray.
If #Russia is able to take #Severodonetsk, it is unlikely they will attempt to attack the hills of Lysychans'k across the river. This would be a gargantuan (and foolish) task since #RuAF can simply go around and cut the supply lines to the SW.

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More from @AggregateOsint

Jun 8
#Lyman Axis - #Russian forces have likely already captured or are in the process of capturing Svyatohirs'k, after the bridge SE to the Donets River was destroyed, This cut off all supplies or reinforcements. Bridge destruction was confirmed via video below.
#NASA #FIRMS 24 hour data shows huge fires in Svyatohirsk & Bohorodychne, especially when considering the cities small size. This indicates that some type of shelling or other explosive discharges are very concentrated on these two cities. This is likely #RuAF artillery fire.
Video clearly shows the Monastery on the #Ukrainian controlled side across the river from Svyatohirsk that has dropped its last section into the water. The #UAF needed this bridge to keep a resistance in the city supplied and reinforced. It is now lost.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 7
#Severodonetsk - #Ukraine suffered a major setback to its counterattack in the last day & has been pushed back into the industrial zone in the W of the city. #Russian forces have advanced forward of previous lines but a blistering artillery barrage from both sides is underway.
#NASA FIRMS 24 hours data shows that huge sections of the city were on fire today, which is an indicator of shelling or explosives. The shelling appears to be from #Ukraine & #Russian directed at both forward units and resupply and command control areas of the opposite side.
This artillery barrage is creating a zone between the line of contact that is essentially occupied by neither side at the moment because any soldier who is spotted in that zone is immediately hit with a massive barrage. We have updated our map to indicate the unoccupied zone.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 5
#Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down a #Russian SU-25 near Orikhiv Оріхів in #Zaporizhzhya Oblast. The plane burns as it hurtles through the air until it crashes into the ground. #Ukrainians can be heard celebrating.
Here is a second longer video of the same hit. It shows the fireball when the plane hits the ground.
As has been discussed at length, initial reports were incorrect and this was almost certainly a Ukrainian MIG-29. Photos at the scene of the crash and reports from reliable UAF sources have confirmed this. Initially this was reported by reliable sources as an RUAF SU-25.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 1
The #UnitedStates has released details concerning the new $700 million military aid package to #Ukraine. The package includes:
-Four High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammo (# or type not specified)
-Five counter-artillery radars
-Two air surveillance radars
-6,000 antiarmor weapons
-15,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery
-Four Mi-17 helicopters
-15 tactical vehicles
-Spare parts and equipment. More: 👇 cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/01…
The #UnitedStates only agreed to provide the much discussed #HIMARS after receiving assurances from #Ukraine that the weapons would not be used to strike inside #Russia. The #USA is concerned that strikes in #Russia could broaden the conflict. More: 👇 theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
Read 4 tweets
Jun 1
#Lyman Axis - #Russian troops continue to consolidate on the NE side of the Donets River and captured Yarova today. The small city lies around 7mi/11km NW of Lyman. #Ukrainian troops are retreating from Yarova, and likely Sosnove as well, towards Sviatohirsk.
Heavy fighting was reported in Sosnove, Studenok and Shchurove, but #Ukrainian troops will have to give ground soon to avoid being trapped on the NE of the Donets. #UAF is consolidating in Sviatohirsk, where they will likely make a last stand before retrograding over the river.
#NASA FIRMS Data 2 day pull supports the heavy fighting alleged by both #Ukrainian and #Russian sources. #Russia is trying to consolidate all territory to the NE of the Donets River ASAP to begin an offensive towards #Slovyansk and to isolate remaining #UAF to the E.
Read 4 tweets
May 31
#Kherson Axis - The first videos are coming out from the #Ukrainian counteroffensive in Davydiv Brid. The extent of newly captured terrain is unclear but #UAF is moving heavy equipment & troops across the Inhulets River to attack #Russian forces in the area. Videos in next tweet.
This video shows #Ukrainian troops moving into an already liberated settlement of Davydiv Brid. The lack of fighting or tactical posture means the frontlines are likely far away from this position.
Another video showing #Ukrainian troops on the move around Davydiv Brid.
Read 4 tweets

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