1/17
Press briefing: US Def Sec #Austin and Gen. #Milley after the 3rd #Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels.
Selected points: (note, this is *not* a NATO meeting. It's an ad hoc group, that has now grown to 50 countries.)
via
@YouTube
2/17
DefSec Austin:
Fact we have 50 countries pledging mil aid to #Ukraine testament to how RUS unprovoked invasion has horrified and galvanised the world, and testament to #heroism of Ukrainian people
3/17
DefSec Austin:
In May, US #Congress approved 40 bn USD in assistance to UA. On 1 June, POTUS auth. further 700 mill USD mil package incl #HIMARS rocket system and guided munitions, plus #Javelins, helicopters, counter-battery radars and ammunition.
4/17
DefSec Austin:
Today US announces additional 1 billion USD sec asst package. That's our 12th drawdown from DOD inventories since Aug 2021. Package includes guided #MLRS munitions, 18 additional M777 #howitzers, tactical vehicles to tow them, and 36,000 rounds of 155 ammo.
5/17
DefSec Austin:
Today's package also includes 650 mill USD in Sec Asst Initiative funds, covering 2 extra #Harpoon coastal def systems, plus thousands of secure radios, night-vision devices, thermal sights, and other optics.
6/17
DefSec Austin:
Significant Allied pledges. Many contributions, but to highlight a few:
Germany: to provide 3 MLRS & guided MLRS munitions
This means #Germany now joins US-UK work to develop UA long-range fires capabilities, which also relates to US transfer of HIMARS
7/17
DefSec Austin:
#Slovakia: significant donation of Mi- series helicopters and rocket ammunition
#Canada, #Poland, #Netherlands: New artillery donations
8/17
Gen. Milley:
Allied assistance has had an effect. Ukrainians are fighting tooth and nail, every day. The Ministers and Chiefs meeting today are committed to provide Ukrainians the means to defend their territory.
9/17
Q&A:
Q: based on widely circulated tweet showing UA request of 1000 howitzers, 500 tanks.
Gen. Milley: don't know your numbers, we respond to official requests. UA asked for 10 art. bn. they got 12. Asked for 200 tanks they got 237. Asked 100 IFVs, got 300+.
10/17
Gen Milley: on Donbas. Nothing inevitable, but currently, RUS dominate, they outgun and outrange the Ukrainians. But: RUS advances slowly, tough slog, attrition almost like in WW1.
11/17
Challenge on numbers again:
Austin: HIMARS and M270 MLRS not comparable with other MLRS - former are w. precision munitions. With good training, they will hit, it's a good capability.
We think that, over time, the assistance will make a difference.
12/17
Austin a bit uncomfortable on the numbers questions. Then switched pace. When you're in a fight, and we've been there, you always want more, as much as possible. But we'll continue to get them what we can. We're going to work hard to get them the capabilities they need.
13/17
Gen. Milley: We've given them tools, several different ranges. Note again with HIMARS, we're talking precision munitions, if used properly can take out a lot of targets. Ukrainians are great gunners, they're achieving good results with the M777, we expect same with HIMARS.
14/17
Q: War aims? Attrition rate sustainable?
Austin: the op-ed by POTUS lays out US goals
We're going to continue to support. We have all 30 NATO nations plus an extra 20, supporting.
15/17
Gen. Milley:
on attrition rates, hard to estimate accurately, but media reports of UKR taking 100 KIA, 200-300 WIA per day - we have similar assessment. Too high? We think they can sustain because of their will, they're fighting for their country.
16/17
Again questions on numbers, and related, why only 18 howitzers at this time?
Austin: other countries also helping on artillery and ammo. UKR actually has a lot of 155 ammo at this time. US sent in 108 + 18 howitzers. Add to that supplies from others.
17/17
Gen. Milley:
RUS do outnumber, some say 6-to-1, others say more. RUS doing mass fire. But mil. effect less good.
UA more precise, more effective.
Today, sum of pledges almost 100 artillery tubes; 300-400 tubes total since start.
HIMARS coming in, just the beginning.

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More from @EHunterChristie

Jun 15
1/6
I'm not sure about this interpretation.
As the FT article makes clear, LIT wants a full presence, not a "remote brigade". Of course they welcome what they can get, that's diplomacy, and it's a small Ally asking for support. But I doubt they are satisfied.
2/6
The notion that the GER decision was "praised" doesn't account for how diplomacy works in such cases. In the NATO context, every contribution is praised, it's good form, it's how Allies talk, almost always.
3/6
Did LIT know it would only get a "remote brigade"?
Of course. There was a joint statement, press reports (though issue of longer-term presence was a bit less clear, to me at least).
Read 6 tweets
Jun 9
1/5
People's opinions are often shaped by their nationality, which carries it with it a specific historical memory. Not real history, but the memory of it.
That's why it's very hard to get many Western Europeans to understand how evil the USSR was, or how evil Putin is.
2/5
Hitler comparisons also raise resistance. E.g. compare Stalin's USSR with Nazi Germany: they were different of course, but tyrannical mass murder is tyrannical mass murder. But many West. Europeans reject that comparison because their "national memory software" blocks it.
3/5
Who is most at ease making Hitler-Stalin comparisons? Those from nations that were victims of both forms of terror.
Who struggles the most to make them? Those from nations that experienced only one of them.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 8
1/5

Attn. France and Germany

This homework is due by Monday 13 June 2022.

I. Read the interview below with the Polish President

II. Respond to questions A to D in tweets below
(use supporting material as necessary)
2/5

A: In April 1939, Roosevelt addressed an additional letter to Adolf Hitler, stressing he was "a friendly intermediary", and asked for assurances concerning several third countries.
How successful was that mediation effort?

mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/Wo…

criticalpast.com/video/65675047…
3/5

B: Following the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan:
(i) the United States acted as a mediator and the Soviet Union admitted its mistake
(ii) the United States supplied weapons to the freedom fighters and was incinerated
(iii) a bunch of badly behaved countries joined NATO
Read 5 tweets
Jun 7
1/5
Medvedev:
"I'm often asked why my Telegram posts are so harsh. The answer is that I hate them. They are bastards and degenerates. They want our death, that of Russia. As long as I am alive, I will do everything to make them disappear."

huffingtonpost.it/esteri/2022/06…
2/5
"European imbeciles in their zeal have shown once again that they consider their own citizens, their own affairs as enemies no less than the Russians. There is no way to immediately abandon our oil."
3/5
"Now Europeans will have to scour the world for raw materials of the same quality. In doing so, they will face a shortage of certain types of fuel, such as diesel, needed for trucks and agricultural equipment."
Read 5 tweets
Jun 4
1/5
On the mediation topic raised by #Macron.
It is my belief that no EU or NATO state can mediate between Russia and Ukraine, because mediation requires an impartial and neutral third party, which the EU & NATO are not and which none of our states should become.
2/5
Our nations are officially, publicly, and morally in clear and strong opposition to Russia and in clear and strong support to Ukraine. And it must remain that way, and if anything increase. Nothing should be done to create doubt on this.
Mediation is the wrong approach.
3/5
The type of communication that can be held between an EU/NATO state and Russia is *negotiation*, a representation of and bargaining for the interests of that state, bearing in mind the interests of Allies, and the agreed principle of 'nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine'.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 2
1/8 - Interesting Politico article on the EU's lack of political unity. A few choice quotes:

' “We don’t need German protection; history proved it to be on the wrong side of history,” declared a diplomat from Eastern Europe '

politico.eu/article/german…
2/8
' “Scholz is a real problem,” an EU diplomat said. “He’s just being the mercantile German instead of the compromise-maker that Merkel was. There is no one stepping in for Merkel." '
'The diplomat said Scholz could at best be described as an "Ecofin guy" '
3/8
'A German official pushed back against such claims, arguing that "the fact that there's criticism from so many countries only shows that Germany plays a leading role" '

Leading by unpopular counter-example?
Read 8 tweets

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