1/ Voltaire has a famous phrase “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities”. Atrocities like #Kremenchuk are happening. Therefore, we need to talk about the absurdities. We do this to understand the Russian invasion of #Ukraine#StandWithUkraine
2/ It is important to address and debunk the absurdities that poison the public conversation. For the particular case of the Russian invasion, there is one absurdity that I want to highlight. The idea that Russia is still some kind of superpower. Ridiculous and widespread idea.
3/ There is no way around this. Russia is NOT a superpower. Moreover, let me argue that Russia would have never invaded Ukraine if this “Russia is still a superpower” meme was less prevalent. Lets analyze what makes a superpower and whether Russia classifies as one.
4/ We need metrics to objectively define when a country is a superpower. For this analysis, lets see two metrics by which we could define a country as a superpower. Namely, population and economic output. Lets start with population.
5/ Russia population is estimated (2020) to be 147 million. Not a small country. It is dwarfed however by #India and #China with their billion plus societies. In a distant third place is the #US with their 332 million. #Russia occupies 9th place between #Bangladesh and #Mexico.
6/ In other words. There are eight other countries that surpass Russia population, two of which overshadow Russia by their immensity. In total, the Russian populace represents less than 2% of the world. That does not sound like a superpower to me.
7/ If we focus only on population, the elephant in the room becomes economic output. Maybe Russia is relatively small population-wise but punches above its weight? Fair enough. To analyze this, lets focus on economic output in the form of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
8/ Russia GDP is estimated (2020) to be 1.48 trillion USD. Again, not a small country. Again, dwarfed by two countries. Namely, the #US and #China, which produce 20.89 trillion USD and 14.72 trillion USD, respectively. #Russia occupies 11th place between #SouthKorea and #Brazil.
9/ The economic scrutiny puts Russia in a worst place than the population analysis. There are ten countries with more economic output, two of which clock values an entire order of magnitude above Russia. This should show everyone that Russia is NOT a superpower.
10/ Population wise, Russia is something between #Bangladesh and #Mexico. Economy wise, Russia is something #SouthKorea and #Brazil. Not bad. Nothing to sneeze at. A regional power for sure, which could do a lot of good by being a relevant part of a community of nations.
11/ Sadly, Russian elites and Putin apologists think that Russia still is some kind of superpower that can and should call the shots in #Kyiv. That idea is ridiculous. That idea has enabled the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That idea has caused a disastrous amount of suffering.
12/ Russia is not a superpower and such idea needs to disappear. We need to expose and debunk it. Russia needs to accept its place in the world. Not as a superpower, but as one country out of many equivalent nations. Only then peace will return. Only then the bloodshed will stop.
13/ Footnote 1: To anyone interested in this topic, I strongly recommend @kamilkazani take on this subject and The Atlantic article here references in his thread. He has been posting informative and thought-provoking threads since the start of the war. Relevant links below.
15/ Footnote 2: I mentioned #Kremenchuk at the start of this thread. The following BBC, Bellingcat, and The Guardian articles do an excellent job informing about what really happened and debunk a lot of the disinformation that has been circulating. Links below.
1/ It is said that those who forget their history are condemned to repeat it. If this is true, then we should always remember the Russian atrocities against civilians. Today I’ll focus on one of the most shocking, the March 16, 2022 Russian airstrike against the Mariupol theatre.
2/ #Mariupol was one of the first cities attacked by the Russians at the start of their invasion. Since February 24th, Mariupol residents have been under fire. This caused some to leave, some to stay put at their homes and some to find shelter in designated buildings.
3/ One of such places designated as shelters for civilians was the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theatre. It was a multi-storied building at a relatively elevated part of the city. No other structures in close proximity. It made sense to shelter civilians there.
1/ There is a saying that goes like "All aggressive war is based upon miscalculation". If we accept this, the obligatory question becomes: Who miscalculated and threw us into the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Answering this will help us understand the this war.
2/ It will also help us avoid such conflicts in the future. Today, I’ll mention two instances of miscalculation. As with any other major geopolitical event, there are too many moving parts to track. Nonetheless, any serious analysis of the war should consider the following men.
3/ Firstly, PUTIN miscalculated. Duh? No sh*t Sherlock? Bear with me. The important question is: How come? The best explanation I found was given by an article of The Atlantic called Vladimir Putin Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap. Strongly recommended. Link below.
1/ I saw this population-scaled map a couple weeks ago. It did not receive the attention it deserved, therefore I’m posting it here with additional commentary of my own. reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comm…
2/ This map is one of the best in my opinion. The population-based region sizing avoids any misrepresentation caused by the expanse of sparsely populated oblasts. Similarly, the logarithmic-color-scaling truly shows the abismal casualty disparity between regions.
3/ This map not only shows the scale of the tragedy that the Putin War has become. It also gives a unique insight into the inner workings of the country and its power structures. The social contract of any country is difficult to asses, let alone such huge behemoth as Russia.