Each one has its own metrics and therefore slightly different, yet similar outcome
We can confirm the correlation is there and therefore by combining all the assets, we can find the outcomes for them together.
6/
๐น DXY correlation
But the root cause of it all is the Dollar and the FED policy on QE/QT & interest rates
Where DXY goes, the others follow
Now if we put #DXY & #BTC together we won't find that many similarities but if we invert the chart and adjust the scale a bit. VOILA
7/
Here we can see the clear picture of the Market tops & bottoms.
The only difference is that Bitcoin is a new approaching asset and therefore its strength sends us much higher each cycle vs other assets
8/
With this confirmed correlation we can clearly say #Bitcoin is treated as a newly found commodity in the digital area in a digital space.
To further validify this observation even the head from the #SEC, Gary Gensler of the "opposition side" has confirmed this
9/
So with this confirmed to know where the bottom for #Bitcoin is going to be is to look where the bottom for #Silver & #Copper & #DXY and other correlated assets is going to be.
It's that simple.
We will look at both Technical & Fundamental narrative.
10/
๐น Copper sharp drops
One thing to point out is when there was a recession capitulation, Copper prices were falling down a lot in a down-only manner & each time that happened it marked the bottom soon after
2008/9, Covid, & Now again
11/
๐น Technicals
From a TA perspective, we are now approaching the biggest demand zone in years for Copper on the Monthly chart.
The similar one we approached in 2008, which has marked the bottom after a down-only move.
The same level we are also approaching on Silver
12/
These demand zones will be heavily defended so if we agree the correlation is indisputable and that these demand zones are gonna hold for metals (more on that later), what does that imply for #Bitcoin?
It implies we will be bottoming in the area between 20-14K apx
13/
Now if we see High Timeframe supports across the board, therefore we should see a HTF resistance on DXY. And truly we do.
All after a big rally this year on the QT, rate hikes & war news, and in general, fight the inflation policy
After all that settles, DXY will go back.
14/
๐น Fundamentals
Now I understand many of you ask yourself a question, but J what if all Silver, Copper & therefore also BTC just keeps going down & DXY up?
And that's a very valid question and I think the answer can be found in a rather simple realization
15/
The world has realized that we are running on a system with unlimited supply (fiat currency) & limited commodities such as food, oil, BTC, silver & so on
After the initial panic this year, what do you think everyone will try to gather? The unlimited stuff? Or the scarce?
16/
The world more than ever is starting to appreciate stuff that is scarce
Therefore the real question you should ask is:
Will Copper, Silver & other stuff go lower? Will they break their multi-year support on a world demand? If the answer is no, the same is expected for BTC
17/
And the reason why I do not expect the prices to lose their multi-year support is that if they have, they'd lose the Covid lows which would break the HTF market structure and I do not see that happening
I think we see a new ATH on Silver, Copper, and so on in the future
18/
If we can agree on that as well then the last question is
If that's all true why not just buy Silver, Copper or others? Why BTC?
Well as always the best option is diversification and you can't go wrong. Duh
But from a max Risk to Reward point of view, BTC is the winner ๐
19/
It's because as I said in the beginning, it's a new appreciating asset and the world is still trying to find a proper value for it
Therefore it offers bigger moves down but also higher moves up, percentage-wise
It's the price you pay for being early & the reward it offers
20/
And while others barely break their past cycle ATH or not at all, BTC has been doing that every time
However, in this decade of the world looking for value & scarce stuff, I believe all will break its ATH, even Silver
As we enter new era of commodity-backed monetary system
21/
From a local view, if we anticipate a HTF bounce, we can also anticipate the market to fill the CME gaps as it so often does and does provide a further confluence
We currently have three open ones above us, while we have filled the ones below
22/
If you are looking for more Bitcoin solely evidence I highly recommend reading this awesome thread ๐งต by my friend @Phoenix_Ash3s where he goes deep on on-chain stuff and other interesting takes, where I'd only repeat what has already been said ๐
Also be sure to read my take on past cycle mistakes waiting for lower prices, being scared to buy & so on, that could help you big time do the right thing this time! ๐
The dollar is absolutely done and the only people thinking it has a future are US folks or fanbois or bears.
After the freeze of the FX reserves for Russia you rly think China, India & others watching are just gonna patiently wait for the same to happen? Is over for $DXY
1/4
It has lost its credibility as paper money and this is an escape exit liquidity rally you are seeing.
Govs in this decade will be trying to figure out where to store the value in. And the value isn't infinite monopoly money but commodities and scarce stuff
2/4
Over the next decade(s) you gonna see the world fleeing from the dollar as it's losing its reserve currency status.
After all, the petrodollar has also ended with Russia now accepting Rubble for oil.
๐งต My biggest mistake in the past cycles was that I was waiting for lower prices just as I was advised to.
When the bull returns it comes out of nowhere & you tend to get caught up in all the bearishness that you miss it completely.
1/
You tend to not trust the next up move because all the past ones have failed and the price is too high now anyway that you'll be waiting for the pullback that doesn't come.
Eventually, the feel of FOMO gets to you but it's too late.
2/
Looking back it's all obvious but in the real-time, it's not. We can always say how it was in the hindsight.
Experience and past examples teach us that people buying the breakdown of the "unbreakable" 6K support were the real winners
3/
I don't know whether it's gonna be a failure or a success but as far as I understand it's not a re-creation of the same LUNA/UST mechanism as before but rather a new L1 without the $UST part & decent ecosystem
1/8
People might think if 1.0 failed why should 2.0 work?
Well as I said I don't know if it will work in the long run, but under certain circumstances, I can see it working if it's just L1.
After all, the old UI worked very smooth and the LUNA ecosystem got pretty big and solid
2/
We have seen this in the past.
Even #Ethereum has split into #ETH & #ETC and eventually has become 2nd biggest crypto coin by mcap
We have seen #Solana had their blockchain stopped several times and it's still going, trying to fix bugs and so on
3/
It is the ultimate goal of everyone & yet most are having a hard time finding it. Even those who have made big riches and have plenty of free time.
Why is that?
And what to do to be happier?
1/ Read below ๐๐๐
2/ While there is no such thing as one single right path, I believe my rules can be applied to almost anyone & everyone.
If you want to be happier & change your life for the better just follow the rules below. It's that simple.
3/ "The happiest person in the world is the one who spends every hour of the day & every day of the year doing things that makes him happy during this whole time" - Me
1/ ๐งต THE HIDDEN SECRET OF CHARTS - ORDERBLOCKS ๐
Have you ever heard of these mystical OBs yet and still struggle with what they really are or how to effectively use them in the charts?
In this thread, we gonna look in-depth into what they are and how to use them
๐๐๐
2/ An Orderblock (OB) was widely introduced by an (in)famous trader ICT and through the years its concept has spread across the Crypto Twitter like a wildfire.
Nowadays they are being used by many traders on the platform in various ways.
3/ So what is it?
Sounds complicated but in its basic form isn't anything else but a Block of many Orders accumulated in a tight place
This OB is then a visual representation of a place where a lot of buying & selling took place