1/
Today I want to address the question about, how the #Russia|n troops were prepared for this conflict and how the preparations may look going forwards.
Especially against the background of the accusations, that the Russian troops were badly prepared and that #Ukraine will
2/
prepare a large army this year and start a large scale counter offensive against #Russia|n troops.
First of all, I can only offer my assumptions, I do NOT have deep insights.
Part 1 --> Russian troops were badly prepared:
Here we have a fundamental problem. When the invasion
3/
were prepared from January 2021, going forward, I'm sure, the soldiers were NOT informed about the actual invasion plans. And that makes absolutely sense.
Here is why:
It is more likely, that soldiers leak information, then general staff members.
#Ukraine #Russia #Donbass
4/
They could either do it for money or by accident, when talking about it to friends and family, out of excitement, or to say goodby to the family.
Now we can conclude, that the troops were most likely NOT informed in advance and were NOT trained for the particular tasks,
5/
that they will need to fulfill in their assigned theater of operation. In fact, they were sent to battle, without knowing IF, WHEN, HOW and WHERE. We saw all the symptoms of this in the first two months of the battle.
#Ukraine #Donbass #Russia
6/
Well, still the question stands, whether they were well trained or not. I would answer this question as follows: The training of the #Russia|n soldiers in general, is, in the meanwhile, one of the best in the world. Those soldiers are well trained in general.
#Ukraine #Donbass
7/
But as mentioned before, they are NOT trained, in particular, for the operation in #Ukraine.
What are the implications?
We have very brave and well trained soldiers in standard situations, for which you can be trained for, being thrown into a battle with a great land army.
8/
Especially an army, that prepared a #Russia|n invasion with the help of #NATO for the last eight years. Including all needed ambushes and pre-registred artillery traps. From my point of view, the soldiers received the information, that they will invade #Ukraine, a few hours
9/
or maybe a day in advance. Well.. I won't pretend, as many others do, that it was smooth. It wasn't. In fact it was a frontal all out assault for the maximum surprise effect to claim as much territory as possible within the surprise situation.
10/
And... it was a slaughter/carnage... for both sides.
Considering the length of the frontline and the intensity of the fighting on all front sections, I assume, that the losses on both sides were more then horrific.
#Ukraine #Russia #Donbass
11/
It is not my intention to discuss this strategy in detail today. Maybe another day.
Well, here we come back to the fact, that those penetrating #Russia|n soldiers weren't prepared for this kind of deep penetration strategy with all kinds of #NATO traps.
12/
Especially the guerrilla warfare against #Russia|n supply lines, that were, logically overstretched, due to the deep penetration maneuvers. Well, I have many assumptions why the Russians chose this strategy and I also assume that it was successful, even though they sustained
13/
more then horrific losses. But by far not, as mentioned by Western sources and #MSM. By sizing as fast as possible the maximum amount of land, #Russia switched to her usual warfare doctrine, that we see today. The raw destruction of the enemy army. Piece by piece. #Donbass
14/
Until #Ukraine pushes that many resources (Man, equipment, spare parts, fuel/oil/lubricants and moral/motivation) that it simply cannot resist physically anymore. Its whole military potential will be destroyed in #Donbass, #Kharkov, #zaporizhia, #dnepropetrovsk and #Nikolayev
15/
That's the reason for the now slow and grinding approach. The #Ukraine|ians needs to come to their own slaughter to the #Russia|ns and not the other way around. The goal is, that the physical break of resources (mentioned above) will come, before the fight for #Odessa and
16/
#Kiev, so that those old #Russia|n cities won't be destroyed by siege. That's why I expect the next battle after #Donbass around #Kharkiv and #Zaporizhia. #Ukraine may consider them as very important and push vast amounts of its last resources into the battle. It could break.
17/
Well, the questions is WHEN #Ukraine will break due to lack of resources or financial funding by The West. Will it break in the next days or will the war be sustained by The West for 1-2 years. I doubt, that it will last more then one more year. #Russia #Donbass #Kiev
18/
And here we come to Part 2 --> Preparation of new and rotated #Russia|n units. As we know, #Ukraine is mobilizing everything they can and train it a few days and push it to the frontlines. Soon they will push cats and dogs to the frontlines, as well.
19/
Unless they do not surrender, what they won't since they aren't allowed to, we need to wait until the resources collapses. This can also mean, until the whole war-able male population is either dead, captured or wounded.
#Ukraine #Russia #Donbass
20/
#Russia, however, hasn't got those problems. Russia is preparing several army formations and newly mobilized units in several parts of the Russian Federation for exactly assigned tasks. As opposed to the beginning of the war, where the Russian soldiers didn't know, for what
21/
and where they will be used.
They are training for the particular circumstances and in the needed environment. Say, urban battle, winter warfare in #Russia|n areas where there is always snow, counter guerilla warfare etc.
Those soldiers and commanders, that served in the
22/
early days of the war and were rotated out, they are teaching the newly formed and mobilized/volunteered units for the battle. It is very clear now, that there is war, that they will be sent to the front and WHERE and at WHAT TIME and environment (winter/autumn etc.).
23/
If #Ukraine collapses fast, those units won't be needed. If not, then the #Russia|n potential will only grow by any passing day, where the #Ukrainian potential will progressively decline by every passing day. To sum it up --> Russia is rising a huge army and war economy
24/
whereas it is destroying both, the #Ukraine|ian army and economy steadily, day by day. We are only waiting whether Ukraine will collapse fast and end its agony quickly or whether they will suffer the worst experience, that anybody suffered since the second world war in terms
25/
military defeat, deaths and (infrastructural)destruction.
If you read my other threads, then you will know, that this is exactly what The West wants, and why they keeping #Ukraine artificially alive, to achieve exactly this outcome. #Russia #Donbass #Kiev

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More from @YugoSurfer

Jun 27
1/
When will #Ukraine fall and what will trigger it?
Some thoughts about strategy:
Many people often discussing why Ukraine is holding on some undefendable places in #Donbass and by doing this, sacrificing a huge quantity of people and material.
The best current example is
2/
the battle for #Severodonestk and #Lyssytschansk.
Well, of course I do not have inside information, but here are my assumptions.
The #Donbass (and some neighboring oblasts as well) is the industrial center of #Ukraine. From my point of view all Western, and Ukrainian
3/
intelligence and government institutions know very well, that #Ukraine will fall to #Russia. Therefore the question arose how to make it sustainably as painful as possible for the Russians, and thereby for Ukrainians, which will fall back into the Russian sphere.
Read 24 tweets
May 29
1/
Recently I was writing about the strategic military situation in #Ukraine in context to the analysis of #ScottRitter. Today I want to add some more information. Scott is pointing out some "difficulties" that he sees in the #Russia|n military campaign. I want to name them
2/
and try to explain, why I do not share his concerns. Not because I want to "debunk" something, but I think, Scott is thinking mainly from a military perspective, and that's why it is always not wrong, to add political and economical elements to it.
#Russia #Ukraine #Donbass
3/
Scott sees the following issues:
1) There is a army being forged out in central/western #Ukraine and in the #EU states as well. Therefore the #Donbass formations buying time for them to be trained and equipped.
2) #Ukraine will get high amounts of money and be flooded by
Read 21 tweets
May 23
1/
I want to give an assessment about the state of the war and what I think how it will continue. Moreover I want to address shortly the dispute between #ScottRitter and @GonzaloLira1968.
Eventually I want to add a political dimension to the whole picture.
#Ukraine #Russia #Kiev
2/
First of all I want to state, that I do support Scott's assessment about the current state of the operation. Why? There is a special military operation ongoing, whose objective is, to free #Novorossiya, and probably either integrate it into #Russia or establish it as a new
3/
country. Of course, because #Russia is considering #Novorossiya as Russian land, and the people as Russians. Therefore Russia is advancing extremely carefully, to preserve the population, as much as possible. If someone ask the question, how this
Read 24 tweets

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