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Jul 15 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
1. One line that seems to divide expert advice on how the West should behave in the #RussiaUkraineWar is that most area students recommend more military support for #Ukraine while many #IR & #politicalscience professors propose accommodation of #Russia.
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
2. Many generalists' underlying argument, whether im- or explicitly indicated, is that #EasternEurope specialists suffer from professional distortion. An emotions overload weakens their political judgement. Thus the generalists' texts are often educational rather than analytical.
3. #Areaexperts, in contrast, suspect the #generalists of suffering from a lack of empirical and contextual information. They are afraid that the generalists neither properly know nor fully understand (or are even not interested in) key peculiarities of the #RussianUkrainianWar.
4. One way to reach more common ground between area & IR experts might be to discuss our conceptualizations & classifications. What, if any, generic phenomena is #Russia's attack on #Ukraine a case of? How far can which analogies from other wars take us in comprehending this one?
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More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland Profile picture
Jul 16
Did the West provoke Moscow? Comment on Sweden's and Finland's forthcoming accession to NATO:
1. In principle, the forthcoming northern enlargement of NATO does not change much in the geopolitics of Europe.
CC: @Konflikt_Sicher @Geopoliti_org @GeopoliticsMag @GSPSipo @debates_eu Image
@Konflikt_Sicher @Geopoliti_org @GeopoliticsMag @GSPSipo @debates_eu @LiberaleModerne @TerekMedia @UkrVerstehen @AKHF_V @intercourier_ua @vneshpol @DipAcademyUA @LawUkrainian @ukraine_world @post_ukrainian 2. Sweden and Finland have, ever since the emergence of NATO, been informal parts of the Western military alliance. However, the conceptual and discoursive repercussions of this new NATO expansion toward the Russian Federation cannot be overestimated.
3. The accession to NATO of Finland doubles the length of the NATO-Russia border. Sweden's and Finland's entry into the alliance was explicitly warned against by Moscow's statements in 2021.
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Jul 15
1. I wonder what the plan of the remaining sane parts of the Russian elite is: Their country is becoming more isolated and distrusted accross the globe, by the month. Russia is entering a major socio-economic and political crisis. Image
2. Growing tensions between the center and periphery of the pseudo-federation could lead to the country's break up, or even to a civil war. In many other countries, #Russians with known ties to the current regime are or will become stigmatized, as enablers of a genocidal regime.
3. Many #Russians also do not understand the rapidly increasing public role of Ukrainians with their deep grievances, in the societies of the Western world. #Ukrainians will make sure that the Russian elite & its children will feel uncomfortable throughout Europe & North America.
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Jul 2
#Erinnerungspolitische Notiz zur Debatte um #StepanBandera:
1. Es geht um das Maß der Verantwortung eines ehemaligen Häftlings des KZs #Sachsenhausen für bestimmte Verbrechen in der #Ukraine, die dort unter deutscher Besatzung bzw. Führung und in Abwesenheit Banderas stattfanden.
2. Es geht um die Bewertung eines Politikers mit zwei Brüdern, die in deutscher Gefangenschaft in Auschwitz umkamen (und dort scheinbar von Mitgefangenen ermordet wurden) sowie einem weiteren Bruder, der in der Ukraine unter deutscher Besatzung unter ungeklärten Umständen umkam.
3. Es geht um die historische Einordnung einer ultranationalistischen Bewegung, die unter deutscher Besatzung bzw. Führung Massenverbrechen verübte, jedoch auch von den Nazis verfolgt wurde, gegen deutsche Besatzung Widerstand leistete & dabei viele Opfer zu beklagen hatte.
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Jun 21
1. @ELuttwak correctly warns that #Putin cannot give up the #Donetsk and #Luhansk regions, as he would loose face, and that he will therefore fight for them to the end. 1/4
unherd.com/2022/04/how-th…
2. But #Luttwark also thinks that #Putin would be ready to allow, conduct, and accept genuine #plebiscites in the regions which could leave #Russia without the #Donbas. 2/4
CC: @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @ukraine_world @intercourier_ua @TerekMedia @KyivIndependent
3. However, we and Putin know from many opinion polls that support for #separatism was always much lower than 50% in the #Donbas. See the relevant opinion polling data collected by #KMIS @PA3yMKOB @dem_initiatives and other Institutes. 3/4
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Jun 12
Thread zur Abhängigkeit von russischen Staatsunternehmen:
1. Bis vor circa einem Jahr hätten verantwortliche Protagonisten aus deutschen Konzernführungen mit ähnlichen Sätzen die Warnung vor Risiken enger Kooperation mit #Russland abgetan. @SZ @ostexperte
sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artik…
2. Die byzantinischen Strukturen solcher Megaunternehmen wie @BASF_DE/@BASF fördern scheinbar solche Vabanquespiele ihrer Vorstände. Verantwortung, Kritik und Verluste lassen sich im Nachhinein mit Geschwurbel wie hier verwässern.
3. Im schlimmsten Fall kann man die gesamte Gesellschaft für die eigenen Fehler in Haftung nehmen. Das Prinzipal-Agenten-Problem wird geradezu zum Leitprinzip von Unternehmensführung. Genauer betrachtet sind solche Fehlstrategien dann keine privatwirtschaftlichen Fehler mehr.
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Jun 6
Others, perhaps, have similar experiences: During the last three months, most topics, stories, books, songs, news, movies, debates, arts, plans, etc unrelated to Russia's war in Ukraine have become pale. 1/3
They seem meaningless, at best secondary, and sometimes inauthentic. Why take an interest in a question or experience that is not existential and not about survival? How can one spend attention and time on trivialities? 2/3
Is there anything worth discussing beyond war for liberty & security? Life has become grayer & sadder, yet also cleaner & clearer. Things, events, & thoughts crystallize either with or without meaning. Lots of irrelevance, little light, permanent worries, but still some hope. 3/3
Read 4 tweets

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