Thread by @bctallis

This week (30-31/08) EU Foreign Ministers meet in #Prague where they'll discussion the #visaban.

I've worked on issues relating to visas, borders & EU foreign & security policy for 2 decades.

Here's what you need to know
- & why you should SUPPORT the #visabanforrussians
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You can lobby your government to support this - including on Twitter.
No one (sensible) is talking about banning all Russians from EU states. For which visas would be affected see here

https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1558142856883224577?s=20&t=i0xQKTvlBbepAY--xpTxVA

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So, what is the point of the #visaban?

1. To support #Ukraine & shorten the war
2. To bolster #EU states' security & resilience
3. To use our power to stand up for our democracies

So how does that work?

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1. To support #Ukraine & shorten the war
-a #visaban would be a strong show of support for #Ukraine.

-It would be a powerful demonstration of #EU states resolve to stand up FOR🇺🇦 & stand up TO #Russia.

-It is something @ZelenskyyUa has asked for & is in our power to do.

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1. To support #Ukraine & shorten the war:

- Ukraine needs our support to win.
- #Putin is counting on an erosion of our commitment.
- a #visaban would show that we're in for the long haul & willing to bear the cost.
- Overmatching #Russia's resolve is key to its defeat

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2. To bolster #EU states' security & resilience:
- by helping #Ukraine, we would also help ourselves. #Russia is our no.1 threat & needs to be defeated.

- Until it is, we have to up our guard against increased security risks from Russians travelling to EU states
#visaban

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2. To bolster #EU states security & resilience:
- prevent agents of influence entering the EU
- make life more difficult for those who service & support RU field agents
- but, more importantly,

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2. To bolster #EU states' security & resilience:

- we must stop 'apolitical' & pro-Kremlin Russians laughing in our faces, enjoying the benefits of our democracies while bearing no costs for maintaining them.
- we must stop them abusing our freedom for their gain
#visaban

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3. To use our power to stand up for our democracies:

- stopping🇷🇺s enjoying our societies while their compatriots undermine them can prevent resentment in our states

- & will show our citizens that we have had enough of fighting autocracies with one hand behind our backs

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1c) To use our power to stand up for our democracies:
- for too long we've fixated on liberal processes
- we need to prioritise achieving liberal outcomes
- we need to show we're not afraid to use our power for this purpose.
- power begets power- a #visaban will embolden us
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BUT ... you have questions
Q1. Doesn't this rely on a 'with us or against logic'?
- YES, of course & that's an essential part of war-fighting & war winning!
As @markgaleotti put it: There are 2 wars:
- a military one in #Ukraine
- a political-economic one between RU & West

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Q1.Doesn't this rely on a 'with us or against logic'?
- we have to hold the line, to win on our front of this war so that #Ukraine can win too.
- we have to recognise #Russia for what it is: a dangerous enemy that we must treat as such but that we can & should help vanquish.

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Q2. But isn't this collective punishment?
- NO. Collective punishment is an appropriate term for something like the Nazi massacre of Czechs at Lidice.

- withdrawing a privilege like EU travel should not be described in this way (& only is to wrongly discredit).

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Q2. But isn't this collective punishment?
- No, It's a collective withdrawal of privilege which is appropriate given the responsibility that Russian society bears for the regime's actions

- much like Germans & Austrians bore some responsibility for the Nazi regime's crimes

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Q2. But isn't this collective punishment?
- No, all migration regimes are based primarily on citizenship
- We (wrongly) withhold this privilege from many societies that aren't hostile to us
- It's more targeted than economic sanctions, as it focuses on upper middle class

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Q3. Doesn't it punish the Russian opposition & prevent them getting out?
- this isn't about them. They are not the main concern here - #Ukraine is.
- any unfairness in this regard is insignificant compared to the injustices visited upon Ukrainians
-
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Q3. Doesn't it punish the Russian opposition & prevent them getting out?
- while we know they oppose Putin, we often don't know what they stand FOR
- they have other ways to leave which we should encourage. It's better they make a choice, emigrate & vote with their feet

Q3. Doesn't it punish the Russian opposition & prevent them getting out?
- No: we should prevent the misuse of tourist visas for humanitarian purpose & instead increase provision of existing, well scrutinised humanitarian & emigration channels putting spare capacity to use.
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Q4. Isn't is unfair to demand resistance from people under threat?
- Vaclav Havel (hmself a dissident before becoming Czech President) was clear on this: individual decisions not to resist can be understandable given the costs
- But every acquiescence bolsters the regime
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Q4. Isn't is unfair to demand resistance from people under threat?
- Cumulatively, such acquiescence allows the oppressive state to performatively reproduce its power and thus to endure
- this endurance has given us a Russia that butchers its neighbours & destabilised Europe
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Q5. Won't this play into the hands of Russia's propagandists?
- who cares? they say whatever the hell they want anyway-from threatening to nuke us to comparing Scholz to Hitler.
- we can't fall for this strategy of reflexive control {Trying to get us to tie our own hands)
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Q6. But won't a #visaban hurt the EU's transformative power in #Russia?
- No, b/c we don't have any through this channel.
- in theory people to people contact is supposed to drive progressive change as in #Ukraine.
-but in practice it doesn't work with🇷🇺
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Q6. But won't a #visaban hurt the EU's transformative power in #Russia?
- No b/c there there is insufficient desire for progressive change there.
- Millions of visas & visits have not helped prevent Russia's slide into authoritarianism.
- the status quo makes us look weak
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Q7. Isn't the point of a #visaban to help change Russia?
- Not directly. It will give a lot of wealthier 'apolitical' Russians, something to think about - why is this happening? Is Putin still worth it?
- encouraging a🇷🇺brain drain is good but won't change anything overnight
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Q7. Isn't the point of a #visaban to help change Russia?
- the only thing that might change #Russia in the short term is a crushing defeat by #Ukraine.
- By showing our resolve a Ukrainian victory is more likely.
- it gives us a future bargaining chip for progressive change
/tbc