@MaltaGov That Syrians are still fleeing for #Europe is no surprise, particularly those in #Lebanon where authorities are preparing to *illegally force* them back to #Syria.
5+ million #Syria refugees remain in neighboring states & polling suggests ~0.5% would consider an eventual return.
@MaltaGov Why do almost all #Syria refugees refuse to consider any future return to #Syria?
The answer is obvious when you glance across basic facts -- see this thread from last week:
- x1 more child died yesterday (3 total, now)
- Contact with the ~60 passengers was lost overnight
- #Malta has banned a cargo ship from rescuing the boat & has refused to help itself.
WTH.
@MaltaGov Under intense pressure - particularly by foreign diplomats - #Lebanon detained x5 security officers yesterday for torturing a #Syria refugee to death.
He died of "severe torture" within 3hrs of his arrest on unknown charges.
And you wonder why Syrians are fleeing on boats?
@MaltaGov UPDATE -- 63 surviving passengers from a boat of migrants from #Syria & #Lebanon were finally rescued late Tuesday, not by #Malta but a cargo ship ("BBC Pearl").
A 4yr old girl died shortly after the rescue.
They issued an SOS on Saturday -- but were ignored for 4 days.
NEW -- 250 [mostly #Syria] refugees are stranded on a boat that left #Lebanon a week ago headed towards #Europe. A 3-month old girl has died of dehydration.
The boat has run out of fuel, food & water & is stranded in the #Mediterranean, off the coast of #Malta & #Greece.
The situation in regime-controlled areas of #Syria is deteriorating exponentially -- spiraling inflation, cholera outbreak, continued insecurity, political persecution & corruption.
Refugees are not returning & they will not return -- so #Europe is once again a live destination.
Renewed large-scale #Syria refugee movement is now a very realistic possibility -- and the international community *must* acknowledge why:
#Assad's regime remains in place, unchallenged & undeterred.
It's a simple truth, but all too easy to ignore, as it has been for 11yrs now.
Though a minor player compared to #Europe, the U.S. role in taking in #Syria refugees has been appalling -- from 2021-22, we've taken ~3,800.
NEW -- #Trump's global aid freeze has cut the salaries paid to many of the prison & camp guards responsible for securing 9,500 #ISIS militants & ~40,000 associated women/kids in northeast #Syria.
Many are no longer turning up for work.
For years, @CENTCOM has warned that #ISIS's "army in waiting" & its potential "next generation" lie in prisons & camps in NE #Syria.
The threat posed by a mass breakout cannot be understated, as #ISIS was already resurgent in 2024: syriaweekly.com/p/in-2024-isis…
@CENTCOM Did #Trump realize that "cutting aid" would mean opening a door for 1,000s of #ISIS militants to potentially be broken out in #Syria?
Of course not -- but that's the consequence of brash, ill-thought out actions intended for headlines, not policy.
The amount of disinformation doing the rounds on #Syria these days is stunning -- some is organized & by design, but much more is the result of simple ignorance.
To make matters worse, *very* few appear capable of distinguishing fact from fiction. A 🧵:
Multiple videos have went near-viral in recent days purporting to show #HTS abuses directed against #Syria's minorities -- but they've been a combination of old footage &/or incidents by #Assad's regime, often in entirely different locations than labeled too.
Social media is full of accounts that specialize in viral content -- and they've flooded the online space with misleading & often wholly inaccurate content on #Syria.
Many on the right in #Europe & the US have jumped on this, sowing yet more misinformation.
2 weeks before #Assad fell, I wrote that the US mustn't leave #Syria, as the D-#ISIS mission is far from over & the practical cost of staying is wholly affordable.
It's still *vital* we stay, but conditions have changed -- a 🧵:
In 2024, #ISIS has *tripled* its operational tempo in #Syria compared to 2023, while expanding its geographic reach, increasing recruitment & attack scale & sophistication.
The fall of #Assad has made the U.S operating environment *much* more complicated -- with our #SDF partners facing a potentially existential challenge from #Turkey, the #SNA & the surge in revolutionary sentiment across #Syria.
Seeing #Assad's former cabinet meeting with #HTS's Salvation Government in #Damascus is truly a staggering thing.
For many years, Syrians aligned with the state risked being disappeared merely for exchanging messages with opposition-aligned people. A 🧵:
In years past, I was involved in a large-scale effort to bring Syrians together from across the crisis spectrum -- for days-long meetings abroad, in neutral venues. Getting people from #Assad-held areas was an enormous logistical & security challenge (for them).
To extend an invite would normally mean first meeting in a neighboring country -- exchanging phone messages or emails whilst in #Syria was a potentially life-threatening thing. Travel would need a cover: a vacation, business meeting, or a family visit.
Over the past week, almost all attention on #Syria has been directed at the #HTS/opposition vs. #Assad dynamic -- and the change of power in #Damascus.
Meanwhile, the #SDF in northeast #Syria has been dealt a tough hand of cards -- a 🧵:
As the anti-#Assad advance gained steam in western #Syria, the Arab tribal component of the #SDF sought to take the fight to #Assad in the east. That happened in Deir ez Zour, but it was hard at times, and complex. It frayed some Arab-YPG ties.
The #SDF also found itself assuming control of resource-intensive areas in #Hasakeh & #Raqqa abandoned by #Assad -- good in theory, but it stretched resources while the #Turkey-backed #SNA launched offensive moves into Tel Rifat & then #Manbij.