To sustain Ukraine during this conflict, Europeans should draw up a four-part ‘#longwar plan’.
This plan would comprise #militaryassistance to Ukraine in the form of a ‘#security compact’; security assurances that respond to scenarios of Russian escalation; economic support, giving Ukraine access to the #EUsinglemarket; and help to secure Ukraine’s #energysupply.
Besides its practical impact, this plan will signal Europeans’ commitment to assisting #Ukraine, showing Kyiv, Moscow, and the wider global community that the EU is in it for the long haul. The long-war plan will also provide clarity to anxious publics in member states.
Together, these proposals would protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and help create the long-term conditions for a resolution to the war – if and when a more constructive attitude emerges in the #Kremlin.
NEW SURVEY | New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
@markhleonard 1/ New research conducted in Ukraine and 14 other European countries reveals that Ukraine’s determination to fight and European support for arming Ukraine have not been affected by Russian advances on the battlefield.
@markhleonard 2/ But lurking beneath the appearance of unity is a major divide between Ukraine and Europe on how this war should end and what the allied support is destined to achieve.
The potential return of Trump to the @WhiteHouse is a matter of months away. Here are 6 scary policy scenarios to give Europeans sleepless nights & prepare them for what could come. @ECFRStates
New policy brief by @celiabelin, @JyShapiro & @majda_ruge buff.ly/3z0F4Dl
@WhiteHouse @ECFRStates @celiabelin @JyShapiro @majda_ruge 1/ Donald Trump remains erratic and inconsistent when it comes to foreign policy. But the broader Republican foreign policy ecosystem forming around his administration is increasingly clear and organised.
@WhiteHouse @ECFRStates @celiabelin @JyShapiro @majda_ruge 2/ This ecosystem comprises three main “tribes” – restrainers who want US foreign policy to focus on America; prioritisers who want it to focus on Asia; and primacists who want it to continue to focus globally.
Following Saturday’s Iranian attack on Israel, what should European leaders do to prevent an all-consuming war in the Middle East? And what can Europeans learn from the US intelligence community?
Your #ECFRweekinreview has 4 insights for your weekend. A thread 🧵👇
1/ The apparent omniscience of US intelligence is a valuable strategic asset. In the third installment of Letters from Washington, @JyShapiro sets out what Europeans can learn from the US intelligence community to boost their diplomatic arsenal @ECFRStates buff.ly/4cWdnLv
@JyShapiro @ECFRStates 2/ The lack of financing for climate projects is a major obstacle for Africa to reach its goals under the Paris agreement. In this critical year for climate finance, scattered efforts threaten to stymie real progress, writes @Ameer_Chughtai @ECFRAfrica buff.ly/3VWTL3z
#Climate negotiations are entering a new & challenging phase. Many countries need to do more to lower greenhouse gas emissions to keep the targets in the 2015 #Paris agreement alive.
Ahead of #COP27, multilateral climate negotiations are stalling due to geopolitical tensions, distrust between the global south and high-income countries, and concerns about #energysupplies. @ECFRPower
It is necessary to move faster in implementing #emissions-reduction measures, but the need for consensus in the global #climate process makes this difficult.
1/5 Concerns are mounting that 🇧🇾 troops could join 🇷🇺 ’s forces in 🇺🇦. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both #Putin and #Lukashenka.
2/5 Given the task #Sunak faces to stabilise 🇬🇧’s economy without further immiserating the population, he will likely decide that unnecessary conflict with Brussels is something he had better avoid.